Best Bets for the title games
Something quick and different for this week. Here, I’ll be betting with a fictional thousand dollars on the two championship games along with a short paragraph explaining my rationale.
Bengals vs Chiefs
Jedrick McKinnon +63.5 total yards $1.88, Over 30.5 receiving $1.90
Stake: $200 on receiving yards, $50 on total yards
Basically, hit the over on Jedrick Mckinon this game. Unless by some miracle Mahomes is healthier than 60%, KC will likely default to a shotgun and pistol heavy attack. Jedrick is the best pass blocker and receiver out of the backfield and it’s not remotely close. Even if the Bengals are prepared for this change, Mckinon should hit the overs out of sheer volume if nothing else. Perhaps Sky Moore plays a bigger role in a more motion heavy set which takes away from some of this. Or perhaps Mckinon is relegated to pass blocking. But given how useful he’s been in the back-half of the season, it makes all too sense for KC to focus on a way to play around the mobility of Mahomes.
George Karlaftis to record a sack 2.80
$150
Sneaky outsider pick here. Karlaftis has produced 5.5 sacks since November 28th. With Chris Jones and even Frank Clark gathering a lot of attention expect Karllaftis to have his opportunities to attack the wounded Bengals Oline for a chance to notch a sack against Burrow. Other candidates include Carlos Dunlap ($2.80) who always seems to make a big play against his former team in these games as well as Juan Thornhill (can’t bet on him unfortunately) who’s been suprsingly effective coming in on safety blitz’s.
First drive result offensive TD 4.00
$25
Obviously a lot of variables in this bet. But the general belief is that in a major playoff game both teams come out nervous and gun shy. But as we saw last week, this isn’t always the case. Being able to script the first 10 or so plays worked in both teams advantage in the divisional round and there’s no reason to think this couldn’t occur again. Reid is the master of opening drive scores and if they’re able to start ahead, it takes a great deal of pressure off the offence to produce a shoot out level performance. Likewise for the Bengals, if they’re able to open with a score, the foot is going to be on the throat of the Chiefs given the Mahomes injury.
Mahomes INT- Yes 1.91
$75
Mahomes threw some ducks towards the latter part of the game against the Jags and people are vastly overestimating how easy it is to overcome a high ankle sprain. Anyone with eyes could see that Henne was every bit as good as Mahomes was post the injury and although there’s going to be an improved gameplan to work around his limitations, it seems likely that Mahomes will try something he’d ordinarily be able to do and pay for it as a result.
Anytime TD scorer Jedrick Mckinon 2.75, Noah Grey 7.25, Blake Bell 21.00
$25 each
McKinnon seems to be an obvious one. Leads the league in TD’s since week 6 and always get’s looks near the goal line. Given that he’ll likely get more looks this game, makes all too much sense he’d get in for a score at some point throughout the game. Noah Grey and Blake Bell are outside picks where your betting on Reid coming up with some creative goal line sets that often feature his two less prominent TE’s getting open for scores. Be it fake jet sweeps, Bell lining up at FB, Grey leaking out on a play action and so on, these two seem primed to get the ball on a trick play.
49ers vs Eagles
Brock Purdy pass attempts under 31.5 1.93
$150
Philly has an elite tier secondary that leads the league in fewest yards allowed per game. Conversely, their rushing defence has been pedestrian throughout the season. Although they shut down the rush game of the Giants, don’t expect a repeat performance against a Shannahan led offence. Mcaffery’s calf injury is worrying as was their performance on the ground last week against Dallas but this is going to be the week where the patch work additions of a retired Suh, a near retired fletcher cox and a cardio limited Jordan Davis get exposed by an offence capable of producing some creative angles on the ground.
Jalen Hurts rushing yards under 48.5 1.88
$200
More or less the same rationale on this bet. The 49ers can be attacked through the air but carry far too much speed in their Defensive line and LB core. Hurts should have a lot of success in the air here but may struggle to scamper away like he normally does.
Anytime TD Scorer Kyle Juszcyk 14.00, Jalen Hurts 2.40,
$50 on hurts, $25 on Juszcyk
Of course, when it gets to a goal line situation, these two are the ones everyone will be eying. With the addition of Mcaffery, Juszcyk has been relegated to his usual blocking duties. But in some of the biggest moments, Shannahan has lent on Juszyck for a goal line. It’s never been easier to set this up either with the addition of Mcaffery. Hurts is the obvious play given the extrodinary amount of success he’s had on the QB sneak this year. While he may struggle to get rush in the open field, it seems likely he’ll squeeze in for a score once they’re on the goal line.