Best Bets for the title games

Something quick and different for this week. Here, I’ll be betting with a fictional thousand dollars on the two championship games along with a short paragraph explaining my rationale.

Bengals vs Chiefs

Jedrick McKinnon +63.5 total yards $1.88, Over 30.5 receiving $1.90

Stake: $200 on receiving yards, $50 on total yards

Basically, hit the over on Jedrick Mckinon this game. Unless by some miracle Mahomes is healthier than 60%, KC will likely default to a shotgun and pistol heavy attack. Jedrick is the best pass blocker and receiver out of the backfield and it’s not remotely close. Even if the Bengals are prepared for this change, Mckinon should hit the overs out of sheer volume if nothing else. Perhaps Sky Moore plays a bigger role in a more motion heavy set which takes away from some of this. Or perhaps Mckinon is relegated to pass blocking. But given how useful he’s been in the back-half of the season, it makes all too sense for KC to focus on a way to play around the mobility of Mahomes.

George Karlaftis to record a sack 2.80

$150

Sneaky outsider pick here. Karlaftis has produced 5.5 sacks since November 28th. With Chris Jones and even Frank Clark gathering a lot of attention expect Karllaftis to have his opportunities to attack the wounded Bengals Oline for a chance to notch a sack against Burrow. Other candidates include Carlos Dunlap ($2.80) who always seems to make a big play against his former team in these games as well as Juan Thornhill (can’t bet on him unfortunately) who’s been suprsingly effective coming in on safety blitz’s.

First drive result offensive TD 4.00

$25

Obviously a lot of variables in this bet. But the general belief is that in a major playoff game both teams come out nervous and gun shy. But as we saw last week, this isn’t always the case. Being able to script the first 10 or so plays worked in both teams advantage in the divisional round and there’s no reason to think this couldn’t occur again. Reid is the master of opening drive scores and if they’re able to start ahead, it takes a great deal of pressure off the offence to produce a shoot out level performance. Likewise for the Bengals, if they’re able to open with a score, the foot is going to be on the throat of the Chiefs given the Mahomes injury.

Mahomes INT- Yes 1.91

$75

Mahomes threw some ducks towards the latter part of the game against the Jags and people are vastly overestimating how easy it is to overcome a high ankle sprain. Anyone with eyes could see that Henne was every bit as good as Mahomes was post the injury and although there’s going to be an improved gameplan to work around his limitations, it seems likely that Mahomes will try something he’d ordinarily be able to do and pay for it as a result.

Anytime TD scorer Jedrick Mckinon 2.75, Noah Grey 7.25, Blake Bell 21.00

$25 each

McKinnon seems to be an obvious one. Leads the league in TD’s since week 6 and always get’s looks near the goal line. Given that he’ll likely get more looks this game, makes all too much sense he’d get in for a score at some point throughout the game. Noah Grey and Blake Bell are outside picks where your betting on Reid coming up with some creative goal line sets that often feature his two less prominent TE’s getting open for scores. Be it fake jet sweeps, Bell lining up at FB, Grey leaking out on a play action and so on, these two seem primed to get the ball on a trick play.

49ers vs Eagles

Brock Purdy pass attempts under 31.5 1.93

$150

Philly has an elite tier secondary that leads the league in fewest yards allowed per game. Conversely, their rushing defence has been pedestrian throughout the season. Although they shut down the rush game of the Giants, don’t expect a repeat performance against a Shannahan led offence. Mcaffery’s calf injury is worrying as was their performance on the ground last week against Dallas but this is going to be the week where the patch work additions of a retired Suh, a near retired fletcher cox and a cardio limited Jordan Davis get exposed by an offence capable of producing some creative angles on the ground.

Jalen Hurts rushing yards under 48.5 1.88

$200

More or less the same rationale on this bet. The 49ers can be attacked through the air but carry far too much speed in their Defensive line and LB core. Hurts should have a lot of success in the air here but may struggle to scamper away like he normally does.

Anytime TD Scorer Kyle Juszcyk 14.00, Jalen Hurts 2.40,

$50 on hurts, $25 on Juszcyk

Of course, when it gets to a goal line situation, these two are the ones everyone will be eying. With the addition of Mcaffery, Juszcyk has been relegated to his usual blocking duties. But in some of the biggest moments, Shannahan has lent on Juszyck for a goal line. It’s never been easier to set this up either with the addition of Mcaffery. Hurts is the obvious play given the extrodinary amount of success he’s had on the QB sneak this year. While he may struggle to get rush in the open field, it seems likely he’ll squeeze in for a score once they’re on the goal line.

Damar Hamlin + Winners and Losers for week 17

Damar Hamlin

A quick note before we begin the column for this week. It’s impossible to ignore the tragic and downright terrifying situation that occurred during the Bills-Bengals game on MNF. As of this writing, Damar Hamlin is thankfully in a stable albeit critical condition. Hopefully as time passes, Hamlin will make a full recovery. It’s been great to see the football community unite and respond to such a shocking event. As of now, Hamlin’s charity that gives toys to impoverished children has raised $4,879,500. It serves as a reminder that although we all love football and what it brings to our lives, it’s just a game and what unites us, is our shared humanity. That was evident in just about every step of the process throughout MNF. Bengals and Bills players alike united in thoughts and prayers. Fans stood in a shocked silence and everyone involved quickly realised that continuing to play a game when a man’s life hanged in the balance, seem callous and irresponsible. Special mention must go to head coach’s Sean McDermott and Zac Taylor who understood the gravity of the situation and made the judgement call to not resume play. Likewise, the MNF crew were terrific in handling a situation they were in no way prepared for. Hosts Booger McFarland and others spoke little of the game itself and instead discussed the brotherhood instilled within teams and indeed, the football community. It was handled as well as it possibly could have been by all involved. Other than one notable shock host who deserves no more attention than he’s already received, it was a unanimous and unified response to a tragic incident. It was a freak accident that reminded us all about the fragility of life. The tackle itself was nothing out of the ordinary and one can only hope Tee Higgins holds no guilt over the incident and that he’s able to handle what I’m sure must be an immense amount of pressure for something that is no way his fault. The status of the game itself is unclear. It’s not being rescheduled for week 18 and there’s talks it may not be played at all. But all that seems inconsequential as we all sit here with baited breath hoping and praying that Hamlin pulls through.

There’s no easy transition onto what’s normally a column that combines a little bit of humour alongside some analysis of football. It feels so out place to make stupid jokes and rip on Russell Wilson after we all got served a reminder that these players are human beings who deserve the love and respect any of us would expect from each other. It’s a strange dichotomy that doesn’t have an easy and rectifiable answer beyond treating each other a little better. My planned intro for this piece as you’ll soon see, was meant to be something that was played straight for laughs. Now it comes with a bittersweet taste. It would feel disingenuous however, to leave it out and so here it is in pure unedited form.

Winners and Losers, Week 17 of the NFL Season.

We entered 2023 in the bad place. As the clock struck midnight, Ohio State struck a ball that veered wide right of the uprights to send Georgia into the CFB final. We as a universe, forgot to drill holes in the safe at the end of 2022. We as a collective consciousness, said fuck it and threw a Molotov to solve our problems. The Jaguars may actually be a good football team. I repeat, WE ARE IN THE BAD PLACE. How else do you explain a week of ugly, awful football that’s usually reserved for the first month of the season. Minshew mania died, Nick Foles writhed in agony while Kayvon Thibedaux did 1000 snow angels, Russell Wilson played a semi competent football game for the 2nd time in three week and the Jaguars were the only team that actually produced a result that was to be expected. All that was missing was some frozen yoghurt and a Blake Bortles sighting. Despite all that, this week features a lot of winners and only a couple of clear losers. While it’s true that the Vikings got embarrassed, Dallas struggled against a bunch of third stringers and the Jets lost any and all hope of a playoff appearance, none of those outcomes either deviated from expectation or altered the playoff landscape much. As such, we’ll be focusing on the winners this week along with just a couple losers.

Winners: Tampa

Last week, the Bucs rallied to beat an Arizona team led by 6th round pick in the 2019 draft, Trace McSorley. That kept the lead in the division though a loss to the Panthers this week would result in them relinquishing a divisional lead that they’ve held all season long. In their previous matchup, the Bucs got demolished. Although Evans had a big game, Brady was forced to throw 49 times for just under 300 yards and the run game was all but useless against a stacked Panthers defensive line. PJ Walker was the QB during that game and despite throwing 36 less times, he had two more touchdowns than Brady whilst the run game of Carolina gained a bulk of the yards. The end score of that first outing was 21-3. Tampa didn’t score until the 4th quarter and the loss brought Brady to a game under 500, the first time in a decade that he’s held such a record that late into the season. Despite all of this history, Tampa were favoured entering the game even with the game being played on the road. It appeared initially that the oddsmakers made a rare mistake, offering a line despite all logic screaming for Carolina to steal this one.

It all started with the opening drive. Sam Darnold connected with a wide open DJ Moore off a play action pass. From there, Carolina marched down the field through a mixture of runs and carefully scripted passes designed to make Darnold’s first read the open man. A simple corner route by Tommy Tremble later (alongside a clear out post route by DJ Moore) and just like that, Carolina was up 7-0. Tampa would respond by marching down the field themselves before disaster would strike. On third and 10, Brady would connect with Godwin for a 25 yard gain but would fumble it after Sam Lloyd performed the classic peanut punch. It was a squandered opportunity on an otherwise eventful drive. Bucs fans I’m sure were having flashbacks to the Bengals game from a couple weeks ago where turnovers crushed promising drive after promising drive. Unlike the battle against Cincy however, the Tampa D would hold and for the next few possessions, both teams would punt, reflecting the subpar offensive capabilities each have displayed this season. Succop would eventually miss a 53 yarder for the Bucs, once again failing to contribute points despite Tampa moving the ball in spite of some horrific play-calling (Brady spent the entire drive trying to convert first downs on 2nd and third downs after inept run after inept run was called on first down).

Carolina would respond with another TD drive, putting them up 14-0. It was an impressive drive by Darnold who’s played well since the departure of former head coach Matt Rhule. Darnold would convert on 4th and 3 on the drive, drifting left and completing a tight out route to DJ Moore. The Darnold to Moore connection would continue a couple plays later for a 24 yard score. It was a picture perfect throw by Darnold who slotted it perfectly in the space between Moore and the defender Winfield. Given how Tampa have pulled out their wins this season, it was far from a death sentence. But with the season on the line, being down 14-0 is far from ideal against a team who excels at killing the clock. A couple of punts later and Tampa would score on a 63 yard deep ball to Mike Evans. It was the sort of connection that Brady has been off on all season long. A throw that’s always been two yards too far. But not this time. Keith Taylor, despite playing 10 yards off coverage, would get burned by Evans and Brady delivered a textbook throw. Evans never even needed to break stride on the catch.

On the ensuing drive, a mistimed snap would give Tampa the ball straight back and, in the Carolina red zone. But the Bucs would kick a FG despite it being a 4th and one. A cowardly and potentially game losing decision given the season was on the line. That brought the game to half time with the Bucs getting the ball back to start the 2nd half. Both teams likely entered the lockeroom displeased at all the missed opportunities. Carolina gave way 10 points off easy to avoid mistakes. It gave Tampa life and they were lucky the game wasn’t tied. For the Bucs, they were down to a team they likely never even gave much of a second thought to prior to the start of the season. Brady has been challenged by some sup par QB’s this season and this game was no different. A wounded offensive line was getting crushed by the Panthers pass rush and once again, they were unable to rush the ball at all. It forced Tampa to be limited offensively and were lucky that they were gifted opportunities from Panther mistakes.

Only being down four, despite having played some pretty forgettable football, Tampa had to be optimistic exiting the locker-room. But the opening drive was spelled with silly mistakes and they punted after gaining a single first down. Carolina would continue with the egregious errors made in the first half as Darnold slung an underthrown deep ball into double coverage that was picked off. It was his first INT in four games and went against the mistake free football principal that the new era Panthers were founded upon. Tampa responded by marching down the field and…… stalling in the panthers red zone even after converting on a 4th and two on the drive. It forced a chip shot FG that was blocked. A 15 play, 90 yard,7 minute drive that was all for naught. To make matters worse, Carolina would score on the ensuing drive that saw a return to form in clever play-calls. In what was a glorious throwback to the days of old, Darnold ran a play action off an I formation and hit DJ Moore for a huge gain (only a Vita Vea rush stopped the play from going for 6). A few plays later and Darnold made a beautiful read of the defence along with a rocket of a throw to match to bring the score to 21-10. Darnold was far from perfect this game but throws like this one is precisely why he was drafted in the first round.

So, after a drive where few mistakes were made and it was good, well thought out football was displayed, it only seemed inevitable that the game returned to stupid, careless mistakes. Defending a go route from Mike Evans, CJ Henderson got caught watching Brady instead of his man and Evans sauntered past him (literally, he wasn’t even sprinting on this one) for a wide-open score. Commentator Greg Olsen was flat out confused as to what was running through Henderson’s mind and it’s hard to blame him. Twice now, Evans had abused DB’s making stupid mistakes. A quick panthers punt later and the time of possession battle was starting to take its toll. Ordinarily, Carolina has thrived on rushing the ball and controlling the clock. But Tampa’s defensive front owned the line of scrimmage, forcing Darnold to have a surprisingly good game despite being forced to throw. This came at the expense of the clock however and now the pass rush was slowing for the Panthers. Brady had all day on the ensuing drive and took advantage, marching down the field to the Panthers 30 before connecting with Evans for his third score of the day. Despite playing man coverage and playing 10 yards off, Henderson would get beat yet again on a go route. It gave Evans 9 catches for 200 yards and 3 scores. Two touchdowns were from off coverage, all three scores in man coverage where Evans didn’t even so much as feign running a double move.

That put Carolina in a precarious position. Down 3, playoffs on the line, needing Darnold to at least get in FG range to tie it. Instead of all that, it would a quick 3 and out after his pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Despite that, the defence would finally play some mistake free football forcing a punt as the pass rush finally remerged. But cause for celebration would be short lived for Panthers fans as rookie LT Ikem Ikeonwu got beat by Vita Vea who’d strip sack Darnold and give Tampa the ball back at the Panthers 6 yard line. Two plays later, Brady would sneak in for a score to give Tampa a 9 point lead and seal the game. Carolina would score a FG on the ensuing drive but no miracle onside kick and score was to be had. It would seal the division for Tampa, ensuring Brady yet another playoff berth as well as home field advantage for their game against Dallas in wildcard weekend. Certainly as you’ve read this piece, it’s clear that Tampa won the game in spite of itself. Although the defence looked rock solid in defending the run, it’s still worrying how easily Darnold and Co tore up the Tampa secondary. Fortunately, they’ll have a couple weeks to address those issues and likely rest the starters for a meaningless game against the Falcons next week.

Winner: Giants

It’s not worth wasting anyone’s time for what was an utter razing of whatever pride Indy had left in their squad. But it’s worth mentioning that the Giants sealed a playoff appearance with the victory and did so in impressive fashion against a team who at times, has put up a fight. Daniel Jones continues to make his case for a contract extension (at the very least, a franchise tag) as he’s thriving despite throwing to wide receivers not even fantasy owners have heard of. The young defence continues to show promise as Thibodeaux and Lawrence spear head a surprisingly feisty defensive line. New York are now locked into the second wild card spot and will play some combination of Philly, San Fran or Minnesota depending on the outcomes of week 18. Interestingly enough, they have the power to decide some of that outcome as a victory against Philly could potentially shake up the seedings. Regardless of whether they play their starters or rest them, this week was a clear victory for the Giants who make the playoffs despite owning just a single division win.

Winner: Packers

The death of the Green Bay Packers was greatly exaggerated it seems. Winners of four straight games, Rodgers and co have now given themselves control of their own destiny. If they beat Detroit next week, they’re in the playoffs. Lose and they’re out. It seemed like an impossibility for all but the most cynical NFC North fans even just a month ago. But sure enough, the schedule got easier and all that was needed was an upset against the shaky Vikings. The game itself was absolute clusterfuck. Minnisota got the ball at GB’s one yard line after a blocked punt and settled for a FG. On the ensuing kickoff, GB returned it for a score. Two drives later, Kirk threw a pick 6. A few drives after that, Kirk got picked off again. By half-time, the score was 27-3 with every single point in the game scored off of one mistake or another. It was a mess of a game that would’ve been amusing to examine were it not so dreadful. The Vikings committed 4 straight “mistakes” (turnovers or missed FG’s) with GB scoring on the ensuing drive every single time. Although some garbage time points were scored, make no mistake, the game was somehow uglier than the final score line suggests. Nonetheless, you play whoever is front of you and Rodgers took advantage of it. Should they win, they’ll take the 7 seed in the wildcard race, playing some combination of the 49ers, Eagles or Vikings.

Winner: Mike Tomlin

A complete failure of a season is seemingly an impossibility for the most underappreciated coach in football. Despite possessing a rookie signal caller in the most unremarkable QB draft class in an age, Tomlin has once again pulled a rabbit out of his hat. The game itself was ugly in the way every Ravens-Steelers game has always been when this rivalry was at it’s peak. It’s not worth covering unless you have a love for Najee or a hatred of Gus Edwards. Instead, the focus goes upon Tomlin who despite having a 2-6 record entering week 10, have won 6 of their last 8, giving them a 500 record.  It’s a remarkable accomplishment for a team that should’ve been dead and buried and who had little to fight for given the Ravens and Bengals both fighting it out atop the division standings. And yet, here they are, on the fringes of a wildcard berth, fighting for the final spot. They don’t control their own destiny, far from it in fact. But the fact they’re even still in the hunt to begin with is absolute lunacy and is the biggest testament to Tomlin’s coaching ability since we found out just how insane Antonio Brown actually is.

Loser: Panthers

Little can be said here that hasn’t been said already. But it’s worth placing them in the losers column all the same, if for little else than posterity. It was a game they had won numerous times throughout. Even Darnold isn’t to blame for the loss despite the 2 (or three depending on how you interpret the botched snap) turnovers. Instead, it was the inability to defend Mike Evans on deep balls. All three touchdowns were simply egregious mistakes, the last two of which made by the same player (CJ Henderson). Yes, Jaycee Horn was out but that doesn’t excuse the unbelievable mistakes that sunk a season they almost salvaged after the Matt Rhule disaster. It’s a sad and undeserving end for Carolina. The offseason couldn’t have gone any worse for them. They gave up mid-season, trading Mcaffery and firing their head coach. Despite that, they rallied, winning four of their last 6 since firing Rhule. Still, at leas there’s hope moving forward for the plucky Panthers squad as word spread of a potential Harbough signing.

Loser: Commanders

Last but not least, the good ol Commies who knocked themselves out of playoff contention by making the unbelievably stupid decision to start Carson Wentz over Taylor Heinickie. Make no mistake, Heinickie is not the future QB of this franchise. His play this season has been acceptable but he’s had 4 games throwing under 200 yards, multiple games with no TD’s and 0 games with 300+ yards. However, he hasn’t had a multiple INT game all season long. Not one. Carson Wentz, who the Commanders decided to go with in the deciding few weeks of the season with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance, has three multiple INT games. One of said games, was of course this week as in a win or go home game against Cleveland, Wentz threw for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. Not all of the blame lies on his shoulders. That would be unfair and disingenuous given that the Commanders led at half time despite throwing two of his three picks in the first half. Nor was he responsible for Cooper having a speedster’s stat line despite being an aging possession receiver. But it’s hard to examine the choice to start Wentz as little more than a money play. By not starting Heinickie, the Commanders don’t have to give Heinickie all his playing incentives whilst also playing the QB who’s on the books for 22 million this year and has a 0-cost dead cap hit were they to cut him after this year. It seems unlikely that a team fighting for a playoff appearance would make such an idiotic decision based on financial incentives. But it’s hard to ignore the rationale given everything we know about the owner. Wentz had done little to inspire confidence in his play prior to his return. The fact that he stayed on the bench even after he became healthy only reaffirms this. It’s hard to feel sympathy for this franchise given everything their owner has been accused of. But the loss did mean the death of a potential all NFC East playoff appearance. And for that, this Dallas fan is just a little sad we didn’t get to see it.

That’ll do it for another week. It’s the most difficult and uncomfortable column i’ve ever written. I’m sure there’s more I could have written. But I hope to anyone who’s reading this, that you got some measure of enjoyment out of it all the same. There’s just one more week left of regular season football. Let’s all enjoy it while it lasts, continue to hope and pray Hamlin pulls through and learn something from everything that’s happened this week.

Winners and loser’s week 15 of the NFL season

Welcome back to another week of winners and losers. It had to be one of the most insane weeks in NFL history as we saw three endings to games that could’ve been the most memorable of the season all wrapped under our Christmas tree one week early. As we near the end of the regular season (no one is sadder about this than I), we continue to focus upon playoff aspiring teams as opposed to those looking forward to April. Unlike last week, we had a slate full of games where playoff appearances hanged in the balance. As such, even though we’re running on limited time this week, the winners and losers list has decided to go on a bit of a binge eating spree. With that said, let’s dive in.

Winner 49ers

Let’s start with the 49ers who sealed up their division and put their division rivals at great risk of missing the playoffs. Although ugly, this game was hardly a contest throughout. Purdy was once again, fine under centre. He made few mistakes, opting mostly for safe passes with little risk.  We did finally see the limitations of him at QB however as on the few instances where he was asked to throw downfield, he was far from competent and on a couple throws, downright awful. But this is a winners column, so let’s focus upon what’s going right for the Niners. After a couple drives by Seattle who quickly realised that running the ball won’t get them very far, the Niners got the ball at their own 14 yard line. From there, the Niners just fed Mcaffery who accumulated 50 of the 86 yards gained on the drive and received the ball on all but two plays. One of which being the TD pass to George Kittle who got wide open thanks to some ingenious play design. It started with a motion to a WR (fake sweep WR screen), before progressing to another fake (this time to Mcaffery), before Kittle who had been blocking the entire time, leaks out and turns on the jets for the score. Interestingly enough, the Niners had run this play once before, only Kittle faked falling over the last time. It’s a drive that laid the blueprints for how this Niners team can succeed with limitations at QB. Ingenious play design where the threat of McCaffery and the lateral speed of the WR’s can open up the rest of the field.

Following the score, both teams would proceed to punt a few times. Seattle due to mistakes as well as the dominant pass rush from Nick Bosa and Co. Whilst the Niners would stall out from a couple of penalties as well as some poor throws by Purdy while under pressure, one of which should’ve been picked off. To Seattle’s credit, they would move the ball before settling for a FG. Cause for celebration would be short lived however as backup RB Travis Homer would fumble. A couple Mcaffery runs later and just like that, the 49ers were up 14-3 at halftime. Although the game wasn’t over, the Niners were getting the ball back after halftime. One more TD score spelled doom for a Seattle team needed to still be able to at least offer the threat of running the ball. Likewise, Seattle’s inability to stop the run would mean that the Niners could just run the ball and drain the clock out to victory. So what happened on the opening drive of the 2nd half? You guessed, the Niners got the ball to a wide open Kittle again as he scampered away for a  54 yard score.  Although Seattle would respond with a FG, the rest of the game was largely academic. A missed 43 yard FG by Robbie Gould would spark a little bit of life in the game as it spurred on a late Seahawks TD. But on the ensuing drive, the 49ers would run it 6 times and gain two first downs as the clock ran to 0:00.

San Fran have now won 7 straight games, lead the division and are a real threat to potentially gain two home field playoff games should the Vikings stumble. Throughout the win streak, they’ve dominated, only appearing to be at risk of losing against the Chargers back in week ten where they rode their ferocious defence to a shutout of Herbert and Co in the 2nd half. With just three games left, it seems unlikely that the Niners lose again unless they wish to rest their starters. In the final three weeks, they play the commanders, Raiders and Cardinals respectively. With the division all wrapped up, it’s possible they rest up in week 18 and instead prepare for the first wildcard weekend matchup.

Winner: Lions- Loser: Jets

Back in week 8, the Lions were the same old feisty hapless team they were last year under head coach Dan Campbell. They had played some teams close, including the Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks and Dolphins but had lost them all with their single win being against the Commanders. The defence was the worst in the league, achieving the rare trifecta of surrendering the most yards, most points and highest 3rd down completion percentage. That was good for a 1-6 record despite possessing one of the highest scoring offences in the league. Since losing to Miami in week 8 however, they’ve been a completely different team having won 6 of their last 7 games, bringing their record to an even 500 with just three games to go. Entering the game against the Jets, they were picked as underdogs despite the rather comprehensive win against the Vikings the week prior. This was all the more surprising given it was Zach Wilson who’d be under centre for the Jets due to Mike White being injured.

Initially it appeared as though the oddsmakers had gotten this game comically wrong. Detroit marched down the field on the opening drive and had the ball at the Jets 7-yard line on first and goal. The first play was course a carry to NFL TD leader Jamaal Williams who went for 3 yards. If anyone has seen Detroit play this season, you could guess what the next play was. Another rush for Williams, this time for two yards. On third and goal at the two-yard line, they decided to let Justin Jackson have a crack at it. He went for a single yard. Now facing fourth and goal, what sort of creative magic could Detroit come up with? It had to be another run to Jamaal Williams certainly. This time it was stuffed for a loss of yards and the Jets took over at their own 3 yard line. A quick punt later and it seemed like everything all came out even. Except the Jets forgot that you need to cover the punt return in addition to helping block for your punter. Returner Kaylif Raymond would take it to the house for 6 and just like that, it was 7-0. After a couple punts, the Jets would respond with their own score to tie it up. Garrett Wilson got open for a wide open 33 yard gain as Zach Wilson got outside the pocket on a bootleg and do what he does best (the only thing he does best). He'd repeat the effort on the very next play (this time a bootleg to the left) as CJ Uzamoh got wide open for the score.

The rest of the half was largely uninteresting as Detroit nabbed a FG after a boneheaded holding penalty stalled what otherwise looked to be a TD drive. On the final drive of the half, the Jets possessed the ball with just 25 seconds left and two timeouts. Credit must go to coach Saleh as he trusted Wilson to go for it. Okudah would make a rare mistake and didn’t track the ball, leading to an open Jeff Smith for 50 yards. Smith would get open again on the next play, this time for 18 yards and the Jets would tie the game up with a FG to end the half. It’s a half that painted a bizarre picture for Zach Wilson. Despite a few ugly incompletions, Wilson had completions for 33, 40, 50 and 18 yards scattered amongst his 8 completed passes. In the first half alone, Wilson had eclipsed his previous games yardage total (77 yards).

To start the second half, we got to see the Zach Wilson we’d had become more accustomed to as he threw an absolute duck to Jerry Jacobs who was sitting on the route the entire time. Luckily for Wilson, the mistake only cost him 3 thanks to the superb play of the Jets defensive line who stuffed the run and harassed Goff for much of the game. In what seemed to be a reoccurring theme of the game, little else happened after the points as both teams would trade getting a first down or two before punting it away. If scoring points would start the drought in this game, then missing points would surely kick it off again. Badgley would miss a 54-yard FG Detroit which would in turn, spur the Jets to their first lead of the game. Starting at their own 44, the Wilson-to-Wilson connection would strike again as Garrett would fight through pass interference (and a little bit of holding) to make an absurd catch, brining the ball down to the Detroit 21 yard line. Several plays later and the Jets were facing third and goal from the one yard line. Now stop me if you’ve heard this one before, CJ Uzomah got open for the TD score. Seems like covering this guy would have been a good idea but what do I know. That brought the score to 17-14 Jets with just 4:40 left in the game. Keeping with the theme of the Jets not being able to have nice things, the lead wouldn’t last for all too long.

Prior to the winning streak, this was the kind of game Detroit had been destined to lose. Hitting failure despite looking like a quality side was a hallmark trait of this team. But the Lions are living proof of the whole regression to the mean concept. Goff dished out a composed, balanced drive but faced a difficult choice. 4th and one from their own 49-yard line. A punt could potentially be a game ender even if the Jets offence isn’t much to worry about. Both these teams were on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. A win here meant keeping the playoff dream alive. A loss would likely spell the end. If Campbell went for it and was wrong, the wonderful comeback story would die. If he didn’t, every talking head on earth would argue that he had nothing to lose and should’ve gone for it. Campbell opted to go for it, trusting Goff to make the right decision and for his offensive line to hold (not literally). Hold it did as they put the sun god in motion to distract what appeared to be every DB on the Jets and backup TE Brock Wright would escape after committing the initial block and run off for the long score. It’s a genius play call that could very well be something ripped straight out of the Shannahan playbook. Were I to replace the sun god with Ayuik and Wright with Kittle, you’d have never known the difference. That brought the score to 20-17 with just over a minute to go.

Although Zach Wilson had what you’d call a good game by his standards, everything now rested on his shoulders. His play featured some big time throws but was otherwise mired in incompletions and bad reads. With the Jets season on the line, this was a critical moment for both the Jets and his career. Mike white is sniffing at his heels, desperately trying to get his own starting role. Much has already been made about how Zach isn’t a good locker room presence. The writing was on the wall for him to become the next Sam Darnold. Were he to lose this game, it likely meant the end of the Jets playoff aspirations and potentially the end of his time as a Jet.

What could Wilson come up with? On the first play, it was walking straight into a sack. Not a great start but it’s four down territory so it wasn’t an immediate kill shot. Second down, he missed an open Braxton Berrios that may have gone all the way for a score thanks to some blown coverage. Now he faced 3rd and 19. The only thing that had been working all game was Uzamoh and Garrett Wilson. So of course, the ball went to Garrett who beat remarkably beat Okudah stride for stride. After a quick incompletion, Zach would once again connect with Garett for another first down (no timeout taken by Saleh here despite 3 timeouts, an incredibly poor decision that’s left as a footnote for this game). A semi failed hail Mary attempt into double coverage later and a sack later and now it’s third and 18 with 19 seconds to go at the Jets 40, miles out of range for a FG. Another incompletion thanks to a sneaky defensive holding call that wasn’t called. 4th and 18, 14 seconds left. Zach Wilson completes an incredible pass to Elijah Moore who came back to the ball, picked up the first down and got down with just one second left on the clock. A 58-yard FG now was the only hope for the Jets season. As you might expect with a long FG, it went wide and the Lions narrowly escaped with the victory. It was far from the perfect game by the Lions.

Despite largely controlling the game, the defence made critical mistakes time after time that let the Jets back into the game. But no one is asking about how you got your wins in January and so despite the sub-par game, it still spelled victory all the same. Detroit is now in the drivers position for a wildcard berth. They play the Panthers, Bears and Packers to close out the season. All of which are games they’re likely to be favoured in. Should they win out, they may just earn themselves a playoff spot given the teams above them feature a much harsher schedule. The Giants play Sota, Indy and Philly in their final 3 games, all of which are potential losses for that them. Washington plays the red-hot 49ers, the stingy Browns and…. Well Dallas (more on them in a moment) to close out the season. Finally, the free-falling Seahawks play the Chiefs, Jets and Rams to finish things out. It’s far from guaranteed that Detroit wins out there games whilst their opponents stumble. But they have the easiest path on paper to close out their schedule and become playoff bound for the first time since. 2016.

Winner: Bengals- Loser Bucs

The matchup between two division leaders. Brady vs Burrow. A guy who made the SB vs Mr Superbowl. What an incredible matchup right? Okay, I’ll stop now. This game had all the makings of a trap game for Cincy. Despite winning 5 straight games, they only opened as 3.5 point favourites to a team with 7 losses, tied for the most in Brady’s career. The Bucs haven’t had an impressive since week one against Dallas. Last week saw one of the most embarrassing losses in Bray’s prolific career as he went down 28-0 at halftime.  Their defence is banged up, the play calling is stale, they can’t run the ball (worst in the league), they have no chemistry passing the ball and the offensive line has been injured since preseason. It made no sense as to why the line was so low in this game but this is your weekly reminder that oddsmakers know far more than you or I. After a few quick first downs, Burrow attempting to throw Chase, had his passed tipped and picked by Keanu Neal. In the past 9 games, the Bucs only had generated 3 turnovers. If you look at who they’ve played, that stat becomes even more embarrassing. But in a game where they needed everything to go right, the Bucs got it going early. They even decided to throw it on first down a couple times on the opening drive, seemingly a rarity for this squad. It was an unusually successful opening drive reaching the Cincy goal line. But the drive would stall after Brady threw a near INT in the zone, repeating their red zones woes that’s plagued them all season long. Although the drive only resulted in 3 points, it took over 6 minutes of game time and after a quick Bengals three and out, the Bucs had the ball again, ready to abuse the wounded Cincy secondary. Mike Evans, who although will notch yet another 1000 yard season, has been underwhelming to say the least. On deep routes, he’s lost track of the ball and the timing’s been off between he and Brady all season. But on the first two drives of the game, Evans looked like his old self, gaining separation on crossing routes and making a tough contested catch on 4th down.

Despite the early success, the Bucs inability to run the ball would force the Bucs into throwing it on 4th down twice this drive. It’s a results driven league though and Brady would find Gage in the end zone to bring up the score to 10-0. The next few drives would be largely uninteresting though it’s worth noting that the Bengals would continue to go three and out. Action picked up on the final drives of the half by each team. Brady hit godwin on three straight passes on route to a TD. By the time Burrow got the ball with 1:39 left to go in the half, Cincy had just 14 offensive snaps with four 3 and outs. Sometimes though, when nothing else is working, it’s nice to have all the opposing DB’s play off coverage. Burrow marched down the field, picking up as many first downs as they had possessions to that point. An egregious error by Perine would remove any chance of the Bengals getting 7 though a 17-3 halftime deficit seemed manageable. But for as bad as the offence was, the defence was equally responsible for being down. For what seemed like the first time all season, the Bucs were able to successfully run play action off the back of Fournette actually achieving more than a 1.0 YPC. This enabled one of the worst 3 down teams to convert a string of them and control the clock throughout the half. Although Brady had some questionable throws, it was most cohesive half of football the Bucs had produced to that point. Everything was functioning like a competent team. Even the play-calling by Leftwhich was earning praise from Tony Romo.

Facing a two-touchdown deficit, against a team where everything was finally clicking. How can you possibly overcome that? If this week of football taught us anything, it’s that one half of good play does not automatically equate to another half of good play. After a quick three and out, the Bucs would punt for the first time all game. I’d have loved to say his leg was a bit cold or he was rusty. Instead, the Bucs ran a fake punt, only they forgot to tell the runner and just like that, Cincy had life. Even with that mistake however, the Bucs defence would hold the ailing Bengals red zone offence to just 3. Jamarr had a chance to convert for 6 but Charlton Davis had the game of his career and almost picked off the intended pass.

Speaking of INT’s, Trey Flowers would have his own moment, making an incredible diving catch to pick off Brady and giving his offence yet another chance to make up the deficit. This time however, there would be no FG. It would still require the Bucs practically handing the score to Cincy on a silver platter however. On a 4th and 3, despite the Bengals being dead last in 4th down %, they went for it. Burrow ran backwards for 26 yards backwards and got sacked. Perfect right? Not quite as Cincy would get a first down after Lavonte David committed a completely unnecessary defensive holding penalty to deep the drive alive. Even after that, the Bucs defence would force another third down attempt on the drive. This time, a facemask penalty extended the drive. Burrow would score on the following play and at this point, the Bucs implosion seemed inevitable.

Even after all the mistakes though, the Bucs had grossly outplayed the Bengals. All they needed was some more play killing drives, force the Bengals to drive all the way down the field like they had done in the first half. Apparently, that was asking too much though as the Bucs weren’t even capable of punting the ball away. Instead, Brady would get sacked on third and 10 and fumble the ball away, the third of the quarter of those keeping score at home. Cincy would punch in the score along with a 2pt conversion, erasing a 14-point halftime deficit, giving the Bengals a 20-17 lead. Just a reminder that they acquired the lead despite being 1 for 7 on third downs. Yes, that’s right, they scored 20 unanswered points despite being incapable of converting on third down.

If that’s not enough Brady would bobble the handoff to Fournette on the ensuing possession, giving Cincy the ball at basically the same starting field position they’ve had the entire quarter. Yet again, Cincy would punch it in for a score despite the Bucs defence having numerous chances to get off the field. Bunting would drop an easy INT and the Bengals would convert two third and longs on the drive. If you thought 4 straight turnovers was enough for one game then you’re not a machoistic Bucs fan as Brady would throw a second INT after getting hit in the pocket. It was far from Brady’s fault but it was yet another nail in the coffin. The rest of the game had far less excitement. Although I suppose for the Bucs, a successful punt was cause for celebration. Cincy and Tampa would trade TD’s on the final couple possessions but any hope of a comeback was lost after a failed 2pt conversion by Tampa that would’ve brought the game back down to 8 points. A failed onside kick later and an absolutely insane game was over.

Wrapping this one up, it’s worth reminding you just how bizarre a game this was. Tampa was up 14 at the half and had dominated the game from the outset. Even after the turnovers, the Bucs defence would hold. It was mistake after mistake that buried this Tampa team and caused the 31 unanswered points. Although it was only a 9-point game, the 34-23 score-line doesn’t seem reflective of how close this game actually was. For the first time in an age, the Bucs played a balanced first half of football. Almost all the issues that had plagued them all season no longer appeared to be there. For that to be erased by an awful quarter seems unjust. But football is an unjust game and even when it makes sense, it doesn’t. Cincy may have gotten the win but it was the Bucs who threw the game away. Looking ahead, it appears as though the Bengals have all but locked up the division. A win over the Patriots will all but seal it even if they happen to lose to the Bills in a couple weeks. As for the Bucs, fortunately, their division continues to be a dumpster fire and after a terrible loss by the Panthers, they may just win the division by default.

Winners and Losers week 14

Welcome back everyone to another week. Instead of the usual lengthy winners and loser’s column this week, we’re pivoting a little. The reason behind this is that I simply had too few winners of interest for week 14. Although the loser’s column always carries some interest, given how close we are to the playoffs, it makes far more sense to focus upon the teams looking towards the December playoff push. For posterities sake, I’ll list what winners and losers I did have for the week though expect an additional column focusing upon potential playoff teams.

Winners: 49ers, Panthers, Chargers

When looking at those winners, I hope it becomes pretty clear as to why it’s not the focus of my column this week. The 49ers had a dominant win over a hapless Bucs team who hasn’t had a convincing victory since the fist week of the season. Purdy once again impressed as the 49ers don’t ask him to anything beyond what he’s capable of and the Mcaffery deal ages better with every passing week. Likewise, the defence played dominant yet again but given the Bucs rank in the bottom quarter of points scored, this is hardly a brag worthy accomplishment.

Likewise, the Panthers notched a huge win over a reeling Seattle team and are now hilariously enough, in the playoff hunt despite the offence really just being stitched together by spare parts. To their credit, the defence is solid, led by the incredible Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn. But every time the offence scores, it stretches the imagination as to how it’s possible. Nonetheless, Carolina have win two straight and three of their past five. That’s about as good as it gets in the NFC West.

Lastly, the Chargers who replicated the 49ers path to success despite missing 7 defensive starters. By playing press coverage, the shorthanded Chargers defence frustrated Tua on route to his second poor performance in as many weeks. Meanwhile on offence, Herbert once again continues to be the media darling QB as the return of Mike Williams proved just how capable this offence can be when at full strength. Despite the close score, the Chargers never felt like they were in danger of losing the game. Which is remarkable given the chargers history and likely the most damming thing you can say about Tua’s performance.

Losers: Dolphins, Seahawks, Titans, Jets, Bucs

This is what I meant when I said week 14 was filled with far more losers than winners. Miami have now not had an answer to playing against press coverage for two straight weeks. Their next game looks to be snow storm in Buffalo which doesn’t bode well for a team incapable of running the ball most weeks. Should they lose that game, they’ll be threatened with the prospect of missing the playoffs as NE, the Jets and the Chargers are all just a single game back. Just 3 weeks ago, it seemed like a certainty Miami would make the playoffs, now it appears that 3 of their last four games offer a daunting challenge.

The demise of Seattle has actually been a rather sad one. Geno Smith’s resurgence was one of the feel good stories of this season and the trade between them and Denver has provided an endless source of laughter and memes. With their defence having fallen off a cliff though, the good times appear to be over. At the time of this writing, they’ve now lost four of their past five games and must still face the Chiefs in week 16. Although it’s still possible for them to make the playoffs, it’s now somewhat less likely as the red hot lions are chasing their tails.

Remember when the Titans were good (sorry I had to), well neither do I. They’ve lost three straight games whilst the Jags have caught fire and are now facing the unlikely prospect of not winning the division. Something that seemed unfathomable before the start of December. Tanehill has been far from spectacular but it’s really been the inability to run the ball that’s buried this team. Henry has hit 100+ yards just once out his past five games. Although that was against the Jags this past week, almost all of those yards were in the first half. Likewise, their secondary has gotten torched for the second straight week. Maybe this is just a blip and they right the ship. But given the remaining schedule, this should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism.

It seems incredibly harsh to place the Jets in the losers column given they lost a game everyone expected them to lose. But given how the previous matchup between these two went, it’s hard not to. Especially once you consider the playoff implications of this loss. They’ve now lost 3 of their past 5 games, are last in the AFC East and face a surprisingly difficult schedule from here on out. Although the Mike White era has been a fun one, the same issues that cropped up during his last stint as starter have appeared again. He’s a semi competent starter who’s vastly improved the offence but calling him the answer at QB is disingenuous at best and flat out wrong at worst. As a stop gap QB for a team vying to make a playoff push, he’s adequate. The Jets being on the outside looking in on the playoff picture though should not be a surprise to anyone.

Lastly, we reach the Bucs who suffered the second worst loss of Brady’s career. The game featured everything that’s gone wrong for the Bucs throughout this entire season. A wounded defence that’s been uncharacteristically poor against the run and an Oline incapable of blocking anything more than a light breeze. Brady was under fire all game, the connection with Evans this year has been abysmal and once again, the run game was incapable of going anywhere. The refusal to change offensive tendancies has been crushing for this team. It’s hard to believe Brady is pleased at running the ball for 1.5 YPC every first down. Even if they make the playoffs, this is the sort of game that seems like the beginning of the end of Brady’s time in Tampa. They make the playoffs by sheer virtue of the division being terrible but they still seemed destined for a first round exit.

Winners and losers of week 13 of the NFL season

Welcome back to the column after an unexpected two-week hiatus. Apologies for the departure these past couple weeks. Life stuff combined with this time of year got in the way of me producing these like I ordinarily would. Should be the last break from now until the Superbowl however. With that said, not much has changed. The format will see some tweaks this week as I continue to experiment and figure out exactly what the best format for this column should look like. For this week, I’ll be viewing the games with a broader lense as opposed to the usual style of breaking it down drive by drive. That doesn’t mean there won’t be analysis on plays or specific drives but it’ll be done with a broader brush stroke as opposed to the finer details. Will all that said, I’m glad to have you back and let’s dive in.

Winner: Eagles

In what’ll be known as the game that first gave Hurts his MVP claim should he win it, it’s the Eagles kicking in the teeth of a Titans squad that everyone had picked to pull the upset. The logic was sound in theory. Philly haven’t been defending the run well since the loss of Jordan Davis and the offence has looked the better part of inconsistent since the start of November. With king Henry entering the December cold, there was a good argument that the Titans would play mistake free football, run the ball successfully and limit the Eagles possessions. A score akin to a 23-20 final made a lot of sense. Initially, that seemed to be a pretty accurate prediction. Philly opened up with an incredibly impressive opening TD score finished off by Devonta Smith who owned the drive. After that, a couple of three and outs ensued before the Titans responded with their own TD drive that saw Treylon Burks receive one of the nastiest helmet to helmet hit’s you’ll see all season. He held onto the ball however and just like that, it was 7-7. Philly would respond with another TD score with it all being conducted through the air. After a potential AJ Brown score was taken off the board, he’d score on the very next play, giving a bit of an FU to his former team. Tennessee would eventually respond with their own FG before the Eagles scored yet another TD to bring it to 21-10 at halftime.

That was more or less ballgame. Despite Jordan Davis playing limited reps, the Eagles had managed to hold the Titans to just 55 rushing yards at half and had completely neutered their usual brand of December offence. Philly would go on to punch in a TD in the third and fourth quarter but it was all academic with the Titans having just 209 total yards by full time. There’s a lot that can be said for the Titans inability to play from behind but credit must go to Philly who dominated a game that was seen as a bad matchup for them. Hurts produced his best game of the season despite the run game (including his own) achieving absolutely nothing. Beyond the yardage and TD’s, it was the types of throws he was making. It’s the first time all season he delivered what used to a prototypical QB passing performance. He did so with such ease, making the game look effortless like most MVP candidates do. It may not secure him an MVP but it certainly puts him at the forefront of the conversation moving forward. As for the Eagles, it ticks off one of the few “challenging” games remaining on their schedule. Of course anything can happen on any given Sunday but with just a few weeks left to go in the season, they’ve maintained their status as the frontrunners for the one seed in the NFC and only appear to have Dallas as the final game that may present them some issues.

Winner: Lions

How about this plucky Lions squad. A week after everyone was rolling out the red carpet for the true arrival of Trevor Lawrence, Detroit’s formerly terrible defence holds him to a single TD. Before you get started, yes, in the grand scheme of things, this win means little for Detroit. They can’t win the division and are two games behind at best in the wildcard division race with so few games left to go. There’s always a but though. But, the Giants have two games left to play against the Eagles, the Seahawks have looked far from reliable lately and have yet to play a brutal 3 game stretch of the 49ers, Chiefs and Jets. Lastly, the Commanders also have the Giants and Niners whilst also facing a week 18 game against Dallas who’ll be eager to shut out their Rivals from the playoffs. When you take all that into account, it’s not as easy as you might suspect to write off Detroit as a last ditch effort playoff team.

As for the game itself, it was a dominant victory right from the jump. A quick turnover by the Jags saw Jamaal Williams punch in yet another score. On the ensuing drive the Jags would make the regrettable decision to a kick a FG on 4th and 3 from the lions 13. Detroit would respond with a TD and 3 FG’s for the rest of the half whilst the Jags would only amount to another FG. By halftime, it was 23-6 and the game seemed all but wrapped up already. After an opening 3rd quarter score by Detroit, Lawrence did make it at least somewhat interesting, bringing the game to a “two score deficit” (would have required two TD’s and two more 2pt conversions however). But Detroit would keep moving the ball at will, adding another 10 points in the 4th quarter to bring the game to a merciful end. By the end of the game, the Lions had not punted on a single possession. This game also marked the return of a healthy Deandre Swift who looked fantastic, especially receiving the ball out the backfield. Likewise, rookie first round WR Jameson Williams made his debut though it was mostly as a gunner on special teams. The victory displayed some optimism for Lions fans moving forward as they’ve now won four of their past five games and have to be the first sub 500 team favoured against a 10-2 team in NFL history. It’ll be tough to accept Goff as the future playcaller beyond this season but an argument at least now exists that he stays the starter for one more year (especially if they sit a rookie QB behind him for a season). Meanwhile, the defence actually looks reformed since the start of Noevember as they’ve only had opponents top 20+ in two of their past five games. Aiden Hutchinson has come alive, leading the team in sacks while Jeffery Okudah has shown some great form recently. It may be unlikely that this squad reaches the playoffs. But this win has shown that they at least have the potential to despite a horrendous start to the year.

Winner: Bengals

The final winner of the week belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals who seemingly just own the Kansas City Chiefs. It started much like the end of last year’s AFC title game ended. Cincy moved the ball with ease and took an early 14-3 lead. An questionable choice by Andy Reid to kick a FG on 4th and 3 from the Bengals 8 did them little favours and although hindsight is 20-20, it’s difficult to agree with the decision. But to the Chiefs credit, they rallied back, scoring a lengthy TD drive of their own that showed off the new dynamic dual threat combination of Isiah Pacheco and Jedrick Mckinon. Speaking of hindsight, the Bengals saw the chance to inflict an early kill shot on KC before halftime and went for it on 4th and one from the KC 4. Ordinarily, this would be considered a by the numbers great move regardless of the actual result. However, Cincy are dead last in 4th down success rate this year. Still, it’s only a yard, how hard can it be right? Well, if you facing down a former teammate of yours who’s sniffed out the exact play your running, it’s extremely difficult. On a motion jet sweep, WR Trent Taylor got the ball and was immediately tackled by a leaping Carlos Dunlap who made a spectacular tackle (he also stuffed Burrow the play before). That would bring the half to a close at 14-10.

Given the history of these two teams over the past two seasons, it was a remarkably interesting half that clashed with many of the season long changes both teams have had this year. For KC, they were suffering at the hands of the Bengals pass rush and Mahomes who’s made marked improvement in both his pocket presence and decision making this year, reverted to his old self and made some poor decisions in the face of pressure. Likewise, the WR’s who’ve been outplaying their talent level this year struggled. Kelce went without a single catch in the first half while Juju and MVS both continued the poor form they’ve had the previous two weeks. Instead, the run game was the sole highlight of the half for KC’s offence. Meanwhile for Cincy, the offensive line finally is starting to look like a cohesive unit capable of giving Burrow the extra time he needs on some plays. However, their failures on short yardage is something that still needs to be noted for the future. Otherwise, it had been a successful half for the Bengals. Had they have scored the TD on the final drive; they’d have been up 10 at halftime in a half that featured so few possessions for either team.

If you give KC any chance of a comeback, of course they’re going to take it. We’ve seen it from Mahomes time after time this year and in years past. Mahomes would finally connect with Kelce and the improved rushing attack of KC helped them march down the field and retake the lead. After getting burned on 4th down in the first half, Cincy would play it conservative on their ensuing drive, opting for a FG form the KC 18 on 4th and 3. This after Tyler Boyd dropped what would have been a walk in TD. That resulted in the game being tied though not for long. Once again, the Chiefs marched to the Bengals goal line. A few questionable play-calls on KC’s part would bring up 4th and goal from the Bengal 3-yard line. It’s here where Mahomes would go to do his best MJ impression and stretch across for the go-ahead score. Cincy would once again respond with another FG, stalling out at the KC 23-yard line. The ensuing KC drive is more or less where the game got decided. After being shut out for most of the game, Kelce finally got his big gainer only to be stripped of the ball. Cincy would score on the ensuing drive whilst chewing up 5 minutes of game time. That left KC with very little time to work. Though that did not eliminate their chance to tie the game. KC got the ball back with still almost 9 minutes left on the clock but would chew up 5 and a half minutes on a drive that resulted in a missed 55-yard FG (thanks to a bad snap). From there, Cincy got a couple first downs to wrap the game up.

To give Cincy some credit, it wasn’t simply a matter of “just getting a couple first downs”. On the go-ahead TD score, Perine made a spectacular effort to convert on third and 7. Likewise, Chase made an incredible leap to secure a first down by the finest of margins. Finally, Higgins made a remarkable catch in traffic to secure the final first down of the game. In short, the Bengals came up with huge play after huge play when they needed too while KC made the mistakes of years past. It marks the first loss for KC in the months of November and December whilst also marking the third straight game between both teams that’s ended with the final score of 27-24. The victory establishes Cincy as a force in the wildcard race and could very easily end up winning their division given the Lamar Jackson injury. They’ve won four of their past five and get a shot at revenge against the Browns this week whom Burrow is 0-3 against for his career. It also clearly makes them favourites against KC should they play each other once again this season. There’s a long road left until the playoffs but for now, it appears that Cincy have elevated themselves to the top of the AFC heap alongside the Bills, Chiefs and Dolphins.

Loser: Dolphins

Tua annon truthers took a hard this week as the Dolphins played their first opponent with a winning record since week 6 (a game in which Tua didn’t play in). This game featured an oddly suspicious line as all the public money went to the Dolphins whilst the Niners stayed steady as 4.5-point favourites. Turns out, oddsmakers know what their doing, who knew. Even after Garrapolo went down on their opening drive, the Niners stayed composed and played (mostly) mistake free football en-route to a comfortable win. It didn’t start that way however as Trent Sherfield took it to the house on the first play of the day. That was as good as it got for Tua and Miami for the entire afternoon as it was the only lead they possessed the entire game. The game itself wasn’t an incredibly interesting one. It was laden with mistakes by Miami on offence whilst the Niners played their usual brand of defence combined with Brock Purdy doing an incredibly impressive job for a guy who was the last pick in the 7th round. The argument against Tua this season has been that he’s a product of the system head coach Mike Mcdaniel has created. That the Tua resonance is in fact, merely the result of scheme combined with two of the fastest players on the field. Given how Purdy played this game and given how awful Tua looked…. This has a morsel of credence to it. Tua was wildly inaccurate all game, throwing incompletions even on simple bubble screen passes that were designed to get him in rhythm. He looked rattled and uncomposed throughout a majority of this game. But it is just the one game. Against arguably the best defence in football who knew they had to play incredibly to fight against any mistakes the young Brock Purdy might bring. Everyone is allowed to have a bad game and Tua certainly had that.

The concern moving forward is that this could be what playoff Tua looks like. A player who if things don’t go right initially, who doesn’t play against some of the easier teams in the league, that he’ll revert back to his old ways. That argument is a little disingenuous because it ignores all the improvements Tua has made this year. In this game, that was certainly the case. But you can’t ignore the sample size of the season to focus upon one specific game in which things went wrong. Tua has improved his ability to read the game, understands that his arm strength is limited and knows what his star studded WR duo will let him get away with. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t make mistakes but his IQ and ball placement have improved this year which coincides with the vast improvements at HC and WR. That holy trio is why the Tua revival has occurred. It’s far too early to crown the burial of Tua as of yet.

It’s not however too early to be concerned about the Dolphins defence. That unit is 25 in points given up on the season and 22nd in passing yards given up. Against the top of the AFC, those statistics are a death sentence unless the offence is every bit as good as it’s been against lesser competition. It’s not like Tua can afford to even play a mediocre game either as they’re 28th in rushing yards per game. Although the addition of Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mosert have seen some improvements, this isn’t a team that ever wants to run the ball more than a handful of times per game. Picture KC back when CEH was their featured back. That’s why this game is such a significant loss for the Dolphins. It offers a scenario in which their ceiling is capped. They get a chance to prove everyone wrong against the occasionally spicy Chargers though it’s unlikely to quell all the doubters. Instead, circle week 15 on your calendar as Miami may very well be playing for control of the division against the Bills that week. Until then, hold off on writing the Tua eulogy just yet.

Loser: Broncos

Speaking of eulogies, have you missed this part of the column as much as I have? I doubt it but here we go. Discussing the game is mostly pointless. Denver has little to play for at this point and although it’s embarrassing to lose to a team who lost their star QB in the 2nd quarter, the futility of Denver is to be expected at this point. At the very least, it’s worth mentioning just how incredible the Denver defence has been this season. For as fun as it’s been to roast Russell Wilson, it’s hard not to feel a great deal of sympathy for a defence that allows the 2nd fewest amount of points despite having to deal with the worst scoring offence week in week out. With that honourable mention out the way, let the roasting begin.

Here are some fun Denver Broncos statistics for you my dear reader:

Currently on pace for the 5th lowest scoring team of all time.

Peyton Manning in 2013 had 7 TD’s in the first game of the season that year. Wilson has passing 7 TD’s in 13 weeks of play.

In 2011, Tebow had 18 total TD’s in 11 games, Wilson has 9 total TD’s.

They have the least amount of red zone attempts this season and the lowest conversion percentage.

Dallas scored almost as many points in the 4th quarter this week as Denver has combined across the past 4 games.

Teams were 0-206 since 1995 when committing two turnovers, forcing none and failing to exceed 10 points…. Until this week as the Ravens beat the Broncos.

Denver is the only team in the AFC to not have a divisional win.

Russell Wilson is the only QB (min. 10 starts) that has scored less total points than the team’s starting kicker. Russell Wilson has played 11 games, totalled 9 TD’s, good for 54 points. Their kicker Brandon McManus has kicked through 80 points this season.

If the Broncos scored 18 points in regulation in every game this season, they would be 10-2. They’re 3-9

Jamaal Williams has scored as many TD’s as the Broncos season (14).

Notable QB’s who are averaging more yards per attempt than Wilson: Mac Jones, Marcus Mariotta, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tanehill, Andy Dalton, Jimmy GQ,

Notable QB’s who’ve thrown for more TD’s than Wilson: Taylor Heinickie, Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tanehill, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariotta, Andy Dalton.

AND NOW your reminder for what they paid to acquire Wilson

“Trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed. “

A reminder, if you know what lasts more than 48 hours after reading all of that, please go see your local doctor.

Winners but also losers: Niners, Bucs, Ravens

Last but not least, it’s worth quickly discussing some winners who also lost out a little. The Niners won and won impressively against the Dolphins but did so at the expense of losing not their second QB of the season. Now all hope lies in Brock Purdy who played admirably this week but likely won’t face the same level of success moving forward. If anyone is capable of overcoming this, it’s Shannahan but victory certainly came at a cost. Likewise, Seattle are only a game back from them and it’s not certain that they win the division and may instead have to fight for a wildcard spot.

Tampa won a game they should have lost by just about every metric. Doing so secured them a bigger division lead but it’s not all positivity. This is still a sad sack team that looks like they’ll be dominated by Dallas come playoff time. Maybe that’ll come to bite this dear writer in the ass but nothing Tampa has done since the first week of the season inspires any level of confidence. They’re a paper-based playoff team if there ever was one. Were Brady not on this squad, every discussion surrounding this team would be centred on “how lucky the first wildcard team is to play them”. Instead, the fear of Brady will always linger. But he isn’t the same player he once was. The connection to Evans is all but gone as he overthrows the ball on every instance. The defence is solid and maybe that’s enough for Brady to do his thing if the game is tight but miracle wins against subpar competition will only get you so far.

Last but not least, Baltimore. The Ravens won without Lamar but now have the Bengals breathing down their necks in the division race. Lamar could miss anywhere from one to four weeks according to reports. Although they don’t have a hard schedule during that run but if they found Denver hard without Lamar, the road won’t be much easier moving forward. This team always appeared limited even when healthy and now they’re a wounded team that may limp its way to the playoffs. Seems far more likely that the Bengals overtake them within the division and relegate them to a wildcard chase.

That will do it for me for this week. Hope you enjoyed the change in format this week. Moving forward, one deep dive into a game whilst approaching other games with a broader brush will likely be the new standard moving forward, especially as we approach the playoffs. Until next week, this has been Kurt, have a good one.

Winners and Losers week 10 of the NFL season

In what was supposed to be a rather uninteresting week of football, we got more entertainment and shock value than anyone could’ve predicted. As such, there’s only two winners this week with 4 losers and a few teams who delayed the demise of their season.

Winner: Vikings

We kick things off with the only meaningful game of football played this week in that of the 6-2 Bills and the 7-1 Vikings. Despite the records, just about everyone predicted a Bills victory as this was mean’t to be the game that finally exposed the Vikings for the fraudulent contender they are. For the first 3 quarters, that appeared to be a pretty accurate description. After a great opening TD drive by Sota that featured a heavy injection of Justin Jefferson, the Bills responded with a quick TD drive of their own and took over the game. Repeated mistakes and miscues were killing the Vikings early as Kirk fumbled the ball one drive (setting them behind the sticks) whilst throwing an INT the next drive. The Bills however, weren’t completely on point either as they settled for a FG after the INT and Singletary fumbled it as he approached the red zone. These hiccups have plagued the Bills season at times, most notably in the first half against the Rams in week one, and again last week against the Jets. But the Vikings weren’t able to capitalise as they chose to pass it on a 4th and one instead of opting for something safer. The Bills would make them pay by scoring another quick TD in the two minute drill and just like that, it was a 14 point lead at half. It wasn’t a score that reflected the disparity of play. It was a mistaken ridden first half that wasn’t helped by the light snowy weather conditions though it was hardly the weather’s fault that both Allen and Cousins had made some poor judgements in the first half. Little changed in the third quarter as Cousins threw another INT that ultimately cost them nothing (thanks to the on again, off again Bills pass rush). Eventually, the Bills would chip in another FG to push the lead out to 17 before Dalvin cook would burst through a hole and explode for an 81 yard score to bring back to 10 entering the 4th quarter though not before Diggs had a spectacular one handed catch on the final play of the quarter.

Anyone who’s heard of this game will know what happened next. But it’s worth noting to see how exactly we got there. On 4th and two from the Vikings 8, the Bills decided to go for it. A TD here would’ve likely been game set and match. A first down continues to bleed out the clock in a game they had a 2 possession lead in. Instead of either of those two things occurring, Allen would get pressured and pushed out of the pocket and would throw a desperation toss that got intercepted by Patrick Peterson. It’s hard to fault Allen on this INT. By going for it on 4th, throwing it away or taking the sack would’ve netted the Bills nothing. Likewise, kicking a FG to go up 13 doesn’t add much to your win probability. But the play was stuffed right from the start. No one was open and the crossing routes bunched up the receivers instead of getting them open. Whether this was intended to be a rub route of some sort, it’s hard to say but it was so ineffective at getting even a single receiver an inch of space that you have to wonder what the plan was. Minnesota to their credit would convert two fourth downs on the next drive, including an incredible 4th and one effort by KJ Osbourne before finally scoring a TD on a nifty fake toss- handoff play to the FB. Hilariously (or tragically depending on who you were going for), the PAT would be missed and it was kept a four score game. But more critical mistakes and a lack of run game would force the Bills to punt yet again, giving the Vikings a chance to tie the game.

 On third and 13, Cousins would get sacked for his second time on the drive by Von Miller, forcing a 4th and 18th on the Vikings 27. Give they had only one timeout, punting wasn’t an option. So off Cousins went to try and force a miracle and a miracle he did force. He threw up a sky high prayer to Justin Jefferson who was blanketed by CJ Lewis. Jefferson somehow came down with one of the greatest catches you’ll ever see in your entire life as he wrapped one hand around the ball whilst Lewis was trying to rip it away with both hands. Not only did Jefferson hold on to the ball at the point of contact, he somehow holds the ball up to stop it from hitting the ground and maintains possession the whole way through. A couple of passes to Thielen and Jefferson later and all the sudden it was first and goal at the Buffalo 3. First down saw Cousins’s LG stomp on his foot for a loss of three. Second down, a miss to Jefferson in the back right corner of the end zone. Third down, a Jefferson catch that appeared to be a TD only to be reversed to an inch short. That led to 4th and inches with just 57 seconds left to go. A QB sneak was the obvious play but instead they go for a play action pass to Dalvin Cook who’d leak out and be there for the reception only to drop it. Game over right? Nope, there was offsides so the ball creeped half an inch closer and the Vikings got another chance. This time they’d go for the obvious choice and QB sneak it only for Cousins to attempt the worst sneak you’ll ever see. He stayed upright, got no meaningful push from his RB or FB and couldn’t reach out a half inch to cross the plane. It honestly seems impossible to not get half an inch on a QB sneak but Cousins was pulling off all the magic tricks this game. All the Bills had to do was complete one successful QB sneak of their own for a couple yards and the game would be over. Even a safety, while disastrous, wouldn’t guarantee a loss. Hilariously enough though, neither outcome would happen and instead a botched snapped resulted in a fumble and an Eric Kendricks defensive TD to put the Viks up 3. Buffalo would be left with just 30 seconds and no timeouts to score 3 points (tell me when you’ve heard this before). Indeed the Bills would march right down the field and tie the game up to send it to OT though it wasn’t without it’s controversial moment. A Seemingly clear and obvious bumbled reception (upon replay) that went for 20 yards wasn’t reviewed. How the NFL continues to get these things wrong despite actively having measures in place to stop it is beyond me but that’s another discussion for another time.

So onto OT we went. The combination of Dalvin Cook and Jeferson had the Vikings at first and goal from the 2. A TD would’ve won them the game. Instead, the Vikings run a outside zone run on first for negative 3 yards, Cousins would get by Ed Oliver on 2nd down for a loss of 10 yards before finally tossing it out the endzone on third and goal. As a result, Sota would settle for an INT and gave Allen enough time for a TD of his own (though a FG likely would’ve resulted in a tie). Allen went to running off and marched down the field.  With first and 10 at the Vikings 20, it seemed inevitable that Allen would finally reach the end zone for the first time in the 2nd half/OT. Instead, he’d get picked off as he threw it behind backup TE Quintin Morris and into the waiting arms of Patrick Peterson. Finally, the best of the season had come to a close. Though calling it that is a little disingenuous. After all, the Bills had a 17 point lead with just under 2 minutes left in the third quarter. Even after the long Cook score, the Bills were knocking on the doorstep of one final score to seal the game before Allen threw his first INT to Peterson. It took screw up upon screw up for this game to turn into the epic battle it’ll be remembered as. History should look back upon this game as the Justin Jefferson game instead. It was here where he carved out his case as the best WR in the league (especially after the injury to Cooper Kupp this week). As for the team, the Vikings finally got their “legitimate win” that has forced everyone to admit this team is a legitimate SB contender. Sure it was another ugly win in a game they were largely losing. Yes, they still haven’t notched a double digit win yet. But winning games consistently is a display of talent in and of itself, regardless of how it happens. It may be likely that they’ll regress to the mean of one score victories but there’s no guarantee that happens this season. Even if they face some regression, the team possess so much talent on both sides of the ball that any limitation Kirk Cousins bring may not matter in a season with no elite teams. They play a gruelling three week stretch in that of Dallas, New England and the Jets but they’re already waltzing into the playoffs so even a worst-case scenario of 1-3 in those games likely won’t do much to effect their playoff chances.

Winner:49ers

Our only other winner of the week belongs to the Niners who win in spite of a rather unremarkable game over the wounded chargers. The game itself was both unremarkable but also intriguing. It started off with the Chargers getting their 2nd opening drive TD all season long (the other being against the Texans). Given the chargers aversion throughout the first halves of games, this was a pretty shocking result. It was a drive characterised by the lack of a 49ers pass rush that gave Herbert all the time in the world to throw a TD pass to Deandre Carter (who’s yet another WR banged up for them). The 49ers responded in classic fashion by attacking both through the ground and air with Elijah Mitchell’s return being immediately felt as now they possess one of the most dangerous two headed attacks on the ground in the NFL. It all appeared to be going smoothly as the Niners arrived at a third and goal from the Chargers 2. But a run that was stuffed up the middle gave Shanahan a choice. Go for it (the smart play) or kick the FG (the risk adverse play). Anyone who’s seen him coach over the past few years knows exactly what he chose at the Niners chipped in a PAT-esque FG to cut the deficit down to 4. After a chargers punt, the Niners got the ball back and proceeded to immediately fumble the ball. Another chargers drive, another stall though as the injuries on the roster continued to manifest itself into settling for just 3 points.

A quick note, it says a lot about how shocked everyone gets when a Chargers kicker is able to actually consistently hit FG’s. It would be a reoccurring storyline throughout the game and was an amusing anecdote for the commentary crew. The niners and Chargers would continue to trade 3 and outs before Herbert and co would settle for yet another FG after stalling on the goal line. Jimmy G would respond b marching down the field, using a nice bit of motor to keep the Niners defence stuck in place. It would end on a QB sneak for a score after Mcaffery was once against stuffed on short yardage the previous play. On the following drive, we saw one of the rare NFL ejections as Greenlaw took a shot at Justin Herbert as he was scrambling. When the QB is a free runner, it’s expected that he’s treated like any other player. But of course, officiating is never that consistent and Greenlaw got tossed despite Herbert falling down from another tackle being made which forced the semi illegal hit. Not the most egregious call we’ve seen this season but were it Ekler making the run instead of Herbert, no one would have noticed. It forced Chase Daniel to come in for the final few plays who proceeded to try for check downs to Ekler as the Chargers once again settled for another FG to close out the half. For those keeping score at home, that’s 3 FG’s as the Chargers led 17-10 at halftime.

To open the 2nd half, the Niners moved the ball by showing off their elite skill position players once again. Mitchell, Mcaffery and Deebo were all in the mix before the Niners settled for yet another FG. The red zone inefficiency by the Niners is worth keeping an eye on moving forward as despite possessing such dynamic players, there’s often a habit for settling for 3 instead of getting the full 7. Whether this is the fault of Jimmy or Shannahan is hard to say but it’s been a recurring theme in two of their past three games now. Both offences would stall out for the rest of the third quarter as they went into the 4th with the score at 16-13. It’s here where the Chargers would melt down would begin. A lengthy 15 play, 7 minute drive by the Niners punctuated by a Mcaffery score would not only give them the lead, but also give the Chargers limited time to rally. The drive itself was one of the more impressive ones you’ll ever see by Jimmy. He found himself in multiple third and longs and each time was able to stay poised in the pocket and make the right reads. This may sound like an insult coming off as a compliment, and it kind of is. But those kinds of drives show the glimpses of Jimmy G being just a touch more than a game managing QB, something they’ll need him to be come January. The Chargers would respond by… you guessed it, going three and out. But the Niners would only kill a little more clock before punting it away. Fortunately, the punt would land on the 1 and now Herbert would have to about 60 yards to tie it. Instead they’d go 4 and out giving the Niners the ball at the 8 yard line with a chance to seal the win with a TD. Yet again though, the Niners stalled out (admittedly by rushing the ball 3 times in order to drain the clock out further) and had to settle for a 6 point lead. It would matter little as on the first play of the chargers next drive, Herbert would throw a desperation heave that got picked and just like that, the Niners had shut out the Chargers in the 2nd half and won them the game.

It was an impressive 2nd half by the Niners but you can’t help but walk away from the game being rather unimpressed by both squads. It’s much simpler for the Chargers, after all, they’ve been decimated by injuries and have done little since the memorable game against KC. For the niners however, it was a critical win given the seattle loss that brought them much closer to the division lead though it still didn’t inspire much confidence in this squad moving forward. The defence is solid, especially against the run where the interior defensive line is a brick wall. The offence however still seems limited in the red zone and Jimmy G still has the same question marks he’s always had this season. What should make the win encouraging for Niners fans was the return of Elijah Mitchell. He and Mcaffery combined for 166 total yards as Mitchell was incredibly efficient on the ground, Christain posed a greater threat as a receiver. It’s the best two headed RB combination in the league potentially and it’s only their first week playing together. Moving forward, this will likely be the recipe for success in order to overcome the limitations that Garrapolo brings, especially if Shannahan continues to struggle to involved Deebo in the gameplan.

Loser: Bills

This game has already been discussed in depth so I won’t revist that here. Instead, it’s worth discussing what the loss meant for Buffalo. They’ve now lost two straight games and instead of being the clear front runners to win the AFC East (if not the AFC as a whole), are now third in their division with NE right on their tails at just one game back. Even if they wrestle back control of the division, the Ravens, Chiefs and Titans are all neck and neck with them fighting for the one seed. It’s kind of unbelieveable that the Bills are right on the verge of mashing the panic button given they still have the best point differential in the league by a considerable margin and were cruising against the Vikings until the 4th quarter. But the Bills inability to close out tight games was a criticism they had last year and it’s been mentioned at times again this year. Josh Allen after all is their leading rusher and Singletary is averaging just 4.3 YPC with only a couple scores. Now Allen is banged up and they have no time to rest him given the race they find themselves in. Fortunately for them, they have an easy schedule the rest of the way and can regain control of the division in two games against NE as well as a rematch against the Jets.

Loser: Broncos

I’ll be honest with you dear reader. I’m not even mad nor surprised the Broncos lost this game. They were supposed to lose. It was supposed to be an ugly game not worth watching. But at this point, it’s just too much fun not to rip the Broncos and Russell Wilson. South Park may have retired the “Oh my god, you killed Kenny” reoccurring gag but I never will. Once again, the Broncos lost, now sinking their record to a lowly 3-6. It’s far form a game that’s worth recapping or digging into but I will give Denver some credit in that they actually moved the ball a bit tis game. They only had two three and outs this game and were even in a position to tie the game on their final drive. On a third and four from the Titans 21, Wilson would get sacked for the 6th time all game, fumble the ball and set up a fourth and 13. A penalty would turn that into a 4th and 8 but Wilson got forced out the pocket and threw up a prayer to nobody as the pass got tipped and picked. It gave Wilson his 5th INT (to his 7 TD’s) on the year as he tried to avoid getting hit for the 19th time that game. We haven’t done the Wilson burial in a few weeks thanks to injuries and a bye week so let’s bring out this old chestnut:

“Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed. “

It never gets old. While some of the failings of this Denver squad don’t belong to Wilson, it’s impossible to ignore what this team looks like currently, and how difficult it’ll be to fix in the future. They don’t have the picks nor a ton of cap space. Even if they did, they need to revamp the entire offensive line. Even if they do that, they need Wilson not to do what he’s done for the past 3 or 4 years and play himself into sacks. Even if they do that, they need Wilson to play at a higher level than he’s done in the aforementioned seasons. None of that is impossible for Denver moving forward but it’s worth noting that even if Wilson was playing at the peak of his powers, there’s still other issues this team needs to fix. The defence reminds one of the best in the league and is likely the only reason this team isn’t flirting with the Texans and Raiders with the worst records this year. They rank dead last in points scored per game and are 31st in third down percentage. Jeudy is now hurt so Rusty loses yet another weapon on a team that’s incapable of running the ball since Javonte Williams went down. The only bright spot this team has is that they play Vegas next week and Carolina the week after. It’ll likely be their only bright spot left as they have to run the gauntlet for the rest of the season with games against the Ravens, KC twice and the Chargers. If they lose to Vegas though, I would keep an eye on this space as I’ll have to devise an extra special spicy roast for the week.

Eagles

It took 10 long, agonising weeks but finally, Dallas’s most hated team is in the losers column for the first time all season. Yes, it’s their first loss and yes, they’re still in control of the division with two games left to play against the Giants and one against Dallas. But in a tight NFC East race, the loss opened up the window not just for the Giants but for the entire divison as it pulled the commies to a 500 record as well. It was a bizzarro game as it initially went according to script. Heinicke got strip sacked and Philly got a quick TD. Even after a commanding response by the Commanders that saw the Eagles defensive line get stomped into the dirt, the Eagles responded with their own punishing scoring drive. That capped off the first quarter with a 14-7 Eagles lead and it seemed inevitable that although the Commanders were putting up a fight, the Eagles were too talented, too efficient and refined to actually lose to a team who barely beat the Colts a couple weeks prior. But those who had been paying attention shouldn’t have been surprised by the Commanders competitiveness. After all, the commies had just barely lost the Vikings the week prior and had reeled off 3 straight wins before that. Indeed in the second quarter, Washington continued to just punish the Eagles defensive line. Once again the commies fired back for a 13 play drive that resulted FG (a clock management miscue here stopped the commies for going for it on 4th and one). Then they responded on defence as Hurts threw an ill advised pass into double coverage intended for AJ Brown that got picked off. In turn, the Commanders marched down the field yet again, this time for a TD score as the commies just chewed up the play clock. After a Philly 3 and out with just a minute left, Heinickie actually led a rather impressive 2 minute drill and managed to snag 3 extra points to put them up by 6 entering the half.

It was a shocking result, even if you believed that the Eagles defence had looked a little shaky the past couple weeks. But the domination over the Philly defensive line was no joke with an absurd 23:49 to 6:11 disparity in time of possession at half. That wound up being the story of the entire game as time after time, Washington were able to convert on third down and extend drives. To open the second half, Philly went 3 and out yet again while the Commanders went on another 14 play drive that went for almost 8 and a half minutes. By the time the 4th quarter had hit, the Eagles had only 6 possessions and hadn’t scored on their previous 3. There’s little insight to be had on this game. Heinickie had played fine up to that point barring the opening drive miscue. It was simply the ability for the Commanders to play football ordinarily reserved for a team like KC. Limit the possessions, control the line of scrimmage, move the ball and convert on third down when need be and play defence with the emphasis of letting the offence shoot themselves in the foot. That’s exactly what Philly has done at times this year as the offence has proven to be hot and cold instead of consistent.

Philly would score on a lengthy drive of their own to their credit as they were finally able to get the run game going for a drive before Hurts hit Devonta Smith for the wide open score. That brought the score to just 2 and a soft pass aimed to Terry Mclaurin on the subsequent drive that got picked off meant Philly had all the “momentum” back.

This is where the game got controversial. On a first and 10, Dallas Goedart on route to a first down got pulled by his facemask and fumbled as a result. The referees would miss the call, marking the Philly’s 5th turnover all season long (the second this game). Although the Commies would only chip in a FG off the turnover, another turnover by Philly would kill yet another drive. Quez Watkins caught a wide open ball down to the commanders 30 but fumbled the ball off a tackle from behind. Even then, the Eagles would get one more chance to win the game after a quick commanders 3 and out. Yet again, a mistake would kill the drive. On third and 8, Philly ran what appeared to be a four verticals route. Hurts was pressured immediately and sacked, bringing up 4th an 18. Given the recent success of the Eagles defence, Head coach Saleh decided to punt instead of going for it. That would be the last time Philly would see the ball as Brandon Grahamn would get called for a roughing the passer as Heinickie scrambled on third down, looking for a pass before settling for taking a knee. It was a strange call that I can hardly fault either for. On one hand, the hit was delayed as it came after he took the knee. On the other hand, it wasn’t a deliberate victory position play. Heinickie was trying to make a play before opting to take a knee at the end after it was clear no one was open. It’s likely something that’ll get examined in the offseason as the rulebook will get ever more complex. But like the Chargers game, calls against the QB are always going to be ruled differently even if they’re not supposed to be.

The loss was Philly’s first and came at an inopportune time, giving a game to a division rival. But it’s also hard to see it being a replicable formula for success. While the Eagles defence has struggled in recent weeks, it did tighten up in the fourth quarter despite the beating it took from the Commanders offensive line. That secondary is still as opportunistic as ever and it’s unlikely they’ll see the bad fortune in calls that they received. A garbage time score off a trick play made this game look like a larger loss than it was as well. But there is something to be learned about how Washington won this game. That Eagles interior front is vulnerable, even with the new addition of a 36 year old Suh. Likewise the offence still isn’t consistent for Philly as the run game isn’t reliable and Hurts still hasn’t developed as much as you’d like with his read. AJ Brown only saw 4 targets and one catch this game. There needs to be an equal balance in getting both playmaking WR’s involved which hasn’t occurred yet. The greater loss for Philly is in the hunt for the one seed. For once, the Eagles will be rooting for Dallas next week as they face up against the Vikings.

Honourable mention loser: Cowboys

Call it favouritism or whatever you like. I call it already flying over the word count for the week so this one is going to be a quick write up. It was an ugly loss to a miserable and pathetic Packer team. That can’t be denied. It set Dallas up as third in the NFC East with a game against the Vikings that could place them even further back with another loss. Even if they win that game, they still have a difficult schedule the rest of the way. So why did Dallas blow a game that should have been a sure thing? Honestly, it’s not that complicated. A couple of INT’s that were mistakes by receivers didn’t help. Green Bay scored 14 points off those turnovers and tied the game up at half. Even still, Dallas held a 14 point lead entering the 4th and blew that lead. Christian Watson had his breakout game and caught both his TD’s in the quarter as the injuries to Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis have become crippling. Dallas still had every chance to win the game in OT but of course, bad play-calling had to kill the drive. On third and 3, Dallas tried and failed to test Lamb against Jaire Alexander which was fair enough given the success Lamb found on the day. It’s easy to argue the refs missed a wide open and blatant PI call against Alexander though Dallas fans are used to refs missing blatantly obvious calls against the Packers at this point. Even with the egregiousgly missed call, Dallas had a chance to kick the FG on 4th. Instead, Dallas went for it on 4th where every receiver was covered and Dak had to throw a desperation pass to Pollard that fell incomplete. Going for it on 4th was nt the issue. But if your going to do that, you set that up on the previous play, be it an end around, a run, a QB designed run etc. Instead, the decision felt like something that was made in the heat of the moment instead of it being methodical. Again, the refs may have robbed Dallas on third down but it was far from the only reason they lost the game.

Staved off execution: Packers, Cardinals, Bucs

Quick mentions for these teams as they won and inspired just a glimmer of hope in their fans. Obviously at the time of this publishing, the shimmer of hope for the Packers has now long since extinguished but at the time, it gave them a chance that the season could turn around, especially if the Vikings stumbled. Whereas the Cardinals finally managed to beat Mcvay and the Rams in order to stay alive in the NFC West, especially as Seattle lost. Given Kyler is banged up, the future still looks rather bleak for this underachieving squad but if they’re able to win their game against the Niners next week, there still remains a chance they can capture the division if the Seahawks stumble further. Finally, the Bucs who upset the aforementioned Seahawks in a Germany game. Overseas games are always so hard to judge and give much credence too though given Seattle’s form over the past few weeks, it’s worth a tip of the cap to Brady who’s now pulled off two straight wins to retake the division lead. Now the Bucs get a bye week and time to rest up before making the final push towards season’s end. No one is convinced as of yet that this team is anything more than cannon fodder for whatever team they may end up playing in the playoffs (if they make it). But by sheer virtue of winning the division, they’d be granted a home playoff game and you can never discount Brady playing at home, even if it’s the version of Brady we were all afraid we’d see one day.

Wrap Up

Another week, another write up in the books. Once again, this one comes a bit delayed as I forgot how busy the November to December stretch could be given how it went last year. Apologies on that front. Much longer write up this week however, I was glad I was able to watch and cover games like I normally do this week. Given the lack of important games, most of the focus went upon the Vikings as well as those who had critical losses this week. That’ll do it for me this week, until next time.

Winners and Losers of week 9 of the NFL season

Welcome back one and all to another instalment of winners and losers. This week officially marks the halfway point of the NFL season. We now stand at a critical point where teams are either fighting tooth and nail to be a playoff/SB contender whilst others should be preparing their draft notes early, figuring out the staffing situations for next year and piecing together a plan to fix the team. With all that said, this is going to be an extremely brief winners and losers column for the week simply because I wasn’t able to watch many of the games nor will I have time to this week. As such, I’ll be focusing on an update to the power rankings column whilst doing a quick winners and losers column here.

Winners: Jets-Seahawks-Titans (the scary potential playoff team no one wants to see), Bears (the underdog trap game)

I sorely wish I could watch this game and figure out exactly what the hell happened. Whilst the Jets clearly have a great defensive line and Sauce Gardner is going to be the defensive rookie of the year with absolute ease, none of that explains how they were able to beat the Bills despite producing little offensively. Zach Wilson continues to be unremarkable but if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that it’s far too early to be writing him as the answer at QB. Credit must go to the Jets defence who seemed sacked Josh Allen 5 times, the most this season. Allen was also picked off twice (once by Sauce) and has now thrown an INT in 4 of his past 5 games. The win now brings the Jets to just one game back in a stacked AFC East race with Josh Allen hurt and at risk of missing time. There now exists a possibility in which the Jets win the division which seemed like a ludicrous thing to say prior to this game.

Another week, another convincing win by the Geno led Seahawks. It’s hard to even say Geno’s performances are surprising anymore given this is exactly who he’s been in almost every game this season. Despite getting 0 respect from oddsmakers, this Seattle team continues to play consistent football, winning their 4th straight and completing the season sweep of the Cardinals. I caught a bit of this game and was able to witness Geno respond to a pick six by marching down the field three straight drives that resulted in a TD. It’s the exclamation point in Geno’s bid for not just comeback player of the year, but an MVP bid as well. It’s likely he takes the latter given the season Mahomes is having but the fact this is even a point of topic is yet another absurd surprise in a season full of them. Through the halfway point of the season, there’s only a handful of other QB’s playing at the same level as him. Kenneth Walker continues to be a standout as well, grabbing another two TD’s, giving him 7 on the year whilst scoring one in each of his past 5 games. Seattle now seem poised to capture and take control of the NFC West given the failures of the Cardinals and Rams.

Last but not least amongst the scary teams no one wants to see in the playoffs is the Titans. Now I won’t sit here and bullshit you. I was far from a believer in this squad. I don’t think I’ve included them in the winners column once this year despite having only lost 2 games entering week 9. The explanation for this was a pretty simple one though. They had won off the backs of beating up on their abysmal division. Their most impressive performance to this point had been….. the Texans given they started Malik Willis I suppose? It’s honestly difficult to find a win you’d be convinced by. Meanwhile in their two losses, they got smoked by the Bills in week two and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Giants in week one. Even disregarding this weeks loss to KC, they still possessed a negative point differential despite being 5-2. With all that said, why on earth have I included them in the winners column for the first time ever despite actually losing? Well because this was clearly their best performance and should be the first line in coach Mike Vrabel’s resume if he's ever somehow fired. Despite trotting out a rookie QB who threw for 80 yards on 5-16 passing, they not only kept the game close, but were in the lead for a large chunk of the game. Tenesse even had the chance to win the game late in regulation and OT but you can only get so far with a QB who’s a long way away from ever becoming a quality backup, let alone starter. King Henry continues his reign as the months get colder and it seems all but certain at this point that the Titans will win the division yet again and prove to be a scary playoff team once Tanehill returns. They aren’t a conventional football team, not by any stretch of the imagination. But they’re extremely well coached who make few mistakes and will play tight football games regardless of the calibre of opponent.

I know what your saying “you haven’t had a loser in the winners column since week one and now you have two in the same week, are you joking”. No dear reader, I am not joking for once again we have an impressive losing team who have proven to be a lot more than we thought they were. My burial of the Bears after week four has been well covered at this point so there’s little point in rehashing the past. Instead, let’s focus upon how the Bears have gone from a team who pined for the era of Jay Cutler to the team who now thinks they possess a new and improved Lamar Jackson. Once again, the Bears lost a game in which it’s offence was highly productive but lost because the defence leaked more than the dam of Isengard at the end of the Two Towers. It’s probably one of the most amusing box scores you’ll ever stumble upon. Fields didn’t even throw for 130 yards but had three passing TD’s which you can’t help but laugh at. Miami likely weren’t laughing at the record setting rushing performance of Fields however. He ran 15 times for 178 yards and a score, averaging almost 12 YPC despite double digit carries. He was the Bears entire offence this game and had a chance to tie the game or send it into OT but couldn’t. This was the result of taking an inopportune sack on back to back drives, something he’ll have to learn and adapt to moving forward lest he inherit the worst traits of Lamar. As it stands, the Bears have lost 5 of their last 6 but oddly enough have such a great sense of optimism moving forward. The race for the division title is almost certainly lost but it’s now become a season purely focused upon the development on Fields for the future.

Losers: Vegas, Packers, Rams- The death of playoff aspirations.

It may only be November but April can’t come soon enough for these teams (well, except for the Rams). For the one AFC team on this list, their loss saw them fall to 2-6 whilst possessing a 17 point lead. It’s the third instance this season that the Raiders blew a 17 point lead and yet it isn’t even their most embarrassing loss in the past month. Just last week Vegas not only lost by 24 points, they got shut out and didn’t cross the 50 yard line until the final garbage time drive of the game. Even when they were leading 17-0  against a team who shoots themselves in the foot almost as often as Vegas does, it never seemed like a convincing lead. Indeed it wasn’t as after gaining that large lead, the Jags scored points on their next four possessions whilst Vegas got shutout in the 2nd half. They had 4 possessions in the 4th quarter and barely even sniffed FG range throughout all of them. Carr had just 36 yards in the 2nd half as this team saw any glimpse of playoff aspirations wither and die. As they look to April, they must now reconsider their HC, the GM, the QB all while trying to rebuild the offensive line.

Green Bay has become has replaced Denver in the weekly losers column it seems. They’re now the losers of 5 straight games and ust when it seems like the play from Rodgers can’t get any worse, it does. This time around, it was 3 red zone INT’s that gave the Packers their lowest scoring game all season despite playing the worst defence in the NFL (by far). This Lions defence at it’s best surrendered 24 points and had averaged over 30 points heading into the game. But in playing against the dragon Aaron Rodgers, had held to just 9 points. Even the run game wasn’t working as Rodgers wound up being the leading rusher as Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion both averaged under 3.5 YPC. Two of their past three games were meant to serve as “get right games”. Instead, they’ve lost them both in comically disappointing fashion and face a brutal part of the schedule that could potentially see them go on an 8 game losing streak before their bye. Even the Bears who this squad typically owns, is now far from a guaranteed victory. The Vikings have all but sealed the division at this point. It’s unbelievable that the idea of throwing out Jordan Love for the rest of the season to see how he fairs no longer seems like an insane notion. I know I’ve been premature on the death sentence this season but it would be remarkable if GB were somehow able to dig themselves out of the grave they find themselves in.

Last of the agenda for today is the reigning, defending, undisputed SB champions from last season. It was clear from the first game this season that the Rams weren’t going to be that same team. Whilst they kept it close in the first half against the Bills, that was in spite of the Bills turning it over 3 times. Since then, the story has been core star players still playing an incredibly high level whilst all the surrounding pieces have faltered. That didn’t change against Tampa this week. Kupp was once again incredible. Bobby Wagner, Ramsey and Donald all helped keep this game to an abysmally low score. But you can’t score 13 points and expect to win, even against a Tampa team that’s plagued with it’s own issues. The game appeared to be a rather dull one up until the final drive of the game as each team only managed to score a single TD. Unfortunately for the Rams, the Bucs happened to have theirs on the final drive of the game as Brady looked like a discount version of the vintage Brady we’ve seen throughout his career. It was still janky and a little ugly but they got it done with just 9 seconds to spare.

Stafford was unremarkable yet again and has failed to produce a comprehensive performance all season. It’s hard to blame him though given the inept offensive line that can neither pass nor run block. Kupp is now his only option on offence and it’s not like Stafford played at a sky high level last year during their SB run. This Rams squad are in the bottom third of just about every offensive metric there is and it’s hard not to lay some of the blame at Mcvay’s feet given what other coaches have done this season with sub optimal talent. Their remaining schedule is a mixed bag of easier and extremely difficult games. While they’re only three games of Seattle and only a game behind the 49ers, it’s tough to see a path for a playoff appearance given how stacked the NFC appears to be.

That’s going to do it for the winners and losers’ column this week. Apologies for the abbreviated version of it but I couldn’t watch as many games as normal nor did I have the time this week to put in the hours catching up on the games. Hopefully an updated form of the power rankings will come out on Sunday. Until then, I’ll catch you next time

Winners and Losers Week 8 of the NFL season

Just like that, we’re on the verge of being at the halfway point of the season. If your anything like me, this will sadden you deeply. But hey, there’s still the playoffs as well so really, we’ve still got a while left yet. What a season it’s been thus far too as only the Bills and Chiefs have lived up to the preseason expectations placed on them. For everyone else, it’s been overachiever and underachiever central. This weeks winners and losers column will mostly focus on those who surprised us this week as there were few grandiose upsets.

Winner: Seahawks

After 8 long weeks, the Hawks finally make an appearance on the winners column. Can’t believe it took this long but here they are. All it took was a decisive beatdown of the 6-1 Giants. It started ugly as the Giants went 3 and out on all three of their first quarter drives while Seattle just ran in place, getting a single first down each drive before punting it away. As much as everyone has loved the “Geno for MVP” chatter lately, this was a textbook example of why I’m not totally in on the Geno hype. Seattle started the game trying to go for a more pass heavy approach and couldn’t get going. To Geno’s credit, the run game simply wasn’t working against the Giants so they had little choice but to attack through the air. But there were drives in this game that serves as a reminder that there’s more to the Geno revival than simply the efficiency numbers. Regardless, Seattle finally got it going off as they nickel and dimed the Giants down the field, totalling 15 plays for a TD (the longest drive the Giants had given up all season). Special mention goes to DK Metcalf who’s slowly becoming a pretty decent route runner. He’s still no Reggie Wayne but he’s come a long way since college and the abysmal 3 cone combine scores. Likewise, it has to be noted just how good a job Seahawks OC Shane Waldron is doing. On the first TD drive for Seattle, they went for it twice on 4th down and called two fantastic plays to set up Geno for easy conversions. New York would tie the game soon after thanks to an incredible strip fumble by Adoree Jackson that set the Giants up at the 2 yard line. A Giants special teams turnover would result in Seattle walking into halftime with a 3 point lead.

Post halftime is where the game really got spicy. The Giants would methodically march down the field, chewing up almost 9 minutes of time as Danny Dimes continued to make his bid for a contract extension. But Seattle’s played some great contain defence this game and held Jones in the pocket well, forcing a FG from the 13. Seattle would respond in kind with a stalled drive of their own, retaking the lead on a FG. Entering the 4th, the Giants marched down and got another FG. Geno would respond by having a picture perfect drive, piecing apart the Giants defence through some well placed passes, including a dime to Tyler Lockett on a double move for the score. That gave the Hawks a 7 point lead but both the Giants and Seattle would take turns going 3 and out, setting up the Giants for a chance to still tie the game up. But a second fumble by special teamer Richie James would seal it as Kenneth Walker would punch it in on the ensuing possession and the rest of the game became academic.

It was a crucial win for Seattle who now move up to a record of 5-3 to lead the NFC West. While it wasn’t as dominant as the score indicates, it now marks 3 straight wins for the Hawks and is their first win since Detroit where they won in spite of not being able to establish the run. Coming up, they have a divisional matchup against the Cards that will give them some more breathing room in the division should they win

                                                          Vikings                                                               

That’s right Vikings fans, your back in the Winners column despite my continued extreme reluctance to put you in here. In the past I’ve written things about the Vikings like:

“Their wins are almost always ugly as hell but on some level, we can’t all continue to ignore the record, no matter how strong or weak it may appear”

”It really did appear like Sota didn’t want to win this game as despite Miami giving them countless opportunities to take over”.

We still can’t continue to ignore their record and for once, they didn’t really try to throw this game away. In fact, it was actually a pretty competenly played game by both teams which is wild to say given who we’re dealing with. It all started rather well for Minnesota as what appeared to be a rather innocuous Kirk Cousins scramble on third down turned into a long TD. Arizona would respond with a FG as Patrick Peterson got his revenge on his former team, breaking up a key third down pass in the end zone. The following possession was more of what we expected from this Vikings team. Kirk Cousins overthrew a wide open Justin Jefferson on third and one (he could have run for it) before sailing a pass over Thielen’s head (who to be fair was tightly covered). A couple more TD’s would be scored in the half, one by Minnesota which was a nice, lengthy drive that featured a balanced offensive attack while Arizona scored off Deandre Hopkins making one of the most remarkable catches you’ll see all season to close the first half.

Half number two featured a couple punts before a connection from Kyler to Hopkins set up a short Zach Ertz score to take the lead. It was the kind of drive that reminds you of what this offence is capable of with Hopkins leading the charge. It isn’t a dynamic offence. Kyler’s athleticism still seems so poorly underutilised given what we’ve seen from some other mobile QB’s this season. But there is talent on this team. Hopkins is still a top tier WR, Ertz is still one of the better TE’s in the league not named Kelce or Andrews and there’s potential lurking for Moore to be a low WR2. This is all low hanging compliments though as you don’t need to fish for compliments with the Vikings skill position players (no matter what you think of the play calling). Minnesota would respond with a TD themselves after Justin Jefferson apparently took offence to thoughts of DHop being better than him, pulling off an incredible catch despite being absolutely blanketed by the CB (he almost snatches it from behind his head). A few plays later and Mattison would punch it in for the score. If the Cardinals drive displayed the peak potential of Arizona (at least as it relates to having Hopkins back) then the subsequent Vikings drive is the argument that they are in fact legit. Every dynamic skill player was involved in the drive, each displaying differing skill sets. For instance, Thielen had a crafty YAC play while Dalvin was every bit the dynamic runner outside the tackles.

Arizona would respond to the Vikings score by… throwing an INT on the first play of the drive. Kyler unable to step up in the pocket, short changed a verticals pass which got picked off by Harrison Smith. There’s probably something that could be said of Kyler’s size on this play. He appeared to look so small in the pocket trying to get the throw off over a sea of bodies. But the bigger issue here is playcalling given they were backed up close to the end zone. It’s the sort of play that works for the Bills because Josh Allen is Josh Allen, but works for nobody else. Sota responded quickly by punching in another TD to put them up 28-17 which should’ve wrapped the game up. But anyone who knows either of these teams knew we were far from the end of this one. Arizona aren’t unfamiliar to comebacks. In fact, leads are far more foreign to them than deficits. Likewise, Sota has let teams back into games instead of stomping on their throats like great teams should. The Cards would respond immediately with a TD score as 3 Vikings defenders all whiffed on a near stationary Rondale Moore who escaped for the score. A strip fumble by Isiah Simmons on the next drive set up the Cardinals in prime field position to take the lead. This was a bit of a paradoxical moment. Zona who hate possessing leads and the Vikings who love to open the door for their opponents to rally. The Cardinals unwillingness to take a lead would ultimately prevail as a botched snap on third down would kill the drive and force a FG, bringing the score to 28-26 Sota. A penalty would kill the subsequent Vikings drive and force a punt but Zona would fumble and lose the ball on the punt return, setting up Sota in prime field position. The Vikings could capitilise with another TD which was more or less the end of the game. Kyler could’ve tied it with a TD and a two point conversion but would throw another INT, this time off a miscommunication with Ertz. Kirk Cousins and co still tried their best to give Arizona a couple more chances at a win. But back to back drives came up short and just like that, the game as done.

It was a game that encapsulated why both teams are where they are. The Vikings, despite having only lost one game, still gains no respect in large part for the way they win games. So many of their wins come in spite of them giving their opponents ample opportunities to mount a comeback. And yet, they continue to win. It can’t be a reciepe for continued success and yet, it is. Everything we’ve seen over the years indicates to us that this Vikings team is fraudulent. But look at where we’re at this season. There’s just a select few teams who are consistent week to week. The Vikings for all their faults, are consistent in moving the ball and scoring anywhere from 23-28 point per game. Combine that with a defence that gives up 20 a game and it’s good enough for a +29 in points differential on the season. It’s not pretty. Despite their record, there’s five teams with a better point differential than them. But there’s only one team in the whole NFL with a better record than them.

49ers

Shannahan absolutely owns Mcvay doesn’t he. Before diving into the game, it’s worth noting that 20% of all of Shannahan’s wins as the 49ers head coach is against Sean Mcvay. After losing to him in the NFC title game last game, Shanny has deemed it his sole mission to get revenge this season as they completed the season sweep of the Rams, winning both by two plus possessions. The opening quarter of the game however made it seem like a niners domination wasn’t on the cards. After a couple of sputtering opening drives, the Rams had an epically long drive, going for 19 plays and almost 9 and a half minutes of game time. Astoundingly, this was accomplished almost entirely through the air as well. Stafford would eventually punch it in on a third and goal scramble that looked like something out of Friday Night Lights as he dove into the corner pylon while receiving a meaty ‘WHACK’. In turn, the Niners would respond with their own TD off a trick play to Mcaffery. Garrapolo threw a lateral to Mcaffery who’d then throw a pretty nice looking ball to a wide open Ayiuk for the score. Once again though, the Rams would march down the field, all through the air, and score again. It was a throwback drive to the Rams of last year. Stafford shared the wealth around, hitting Kupp when he needed to (including for the TD score) but also hitting his checkdowns when he needed to and not playing beyond himself. The Niners responded once again to the Rams score. This time by marching down to the goal line before stalling out. As a result, the Rams had to pretty optimistic entering the locker rooms. They had controlled the clock, marched down the field without the help of the run game and walked into half time with a 4 point lead.

That’s as good as it got the Rams however as the Niners turned the game on it’s head. After a punt by both teams, the 49ers would retake the lead on a lengthy drive that lasted almost 7 minutes. Jimmy G was perfect on the drive, going 7-7 and hitting the trio of Mcaffery, Ayuik and Wilson constantly. It was Mcaffery however who acted like a WR and high pointed the ball for the TD score. After a Rams 3 and out, the Niners would score yet again as he completed the triple crown, this time rushing in for the score. He was the first to achieve the triple crown in a game since LT did it back in 2005. Yet another punt by the Rams meant another 49ers score, this time to Kittle as the Rams seemingly forgot to cover him in the back of the end zone. That put the score up to 31-14 with 6:41 to go and Shanny and Mcvay seemingly decided to have a gentleman’s agreement to call it a ball game. It wasn’t your typical 49ers win. Instead, it was an explosive offence that gave the Rams very little margin of error in the 2nd half that paved the way for the win. All this without Deebo who missed the game to an ankle injury. With a healthy Deebo, and Mcaffery learning more of the playbook, the upside of this offence all the sudden seems to be packed full of potential. Whether that’ll lead to another NFC championship appearance is to be determined but entering the bye week, this team is starting to get healthier and now own a two game lead on the Rams (taking into account the tiebreaker). While Seattle are ahead of them in the standings, they already hold a win over them this year. At the very least, they’ve placed the Rams firmly into third place in the NFC West standings and can now turn their focus into hunting down the Hawks.

Losers:

Fourtunately we won’t be spending a ton of time in this section. The losers for this week were all involved in blow-outs with two of the games verging on the unwatchable territory (unless you love to see Jacoby Brisett stunting on people… which I mean, fair enough).

Rams

Hard to pick anyone else here first besides the reigning SB champs. Having already recapped the game, let’s dive into where the Rams went wrong. The first half saw the Rams dominating the time of possession battle. Stafford had 152 of his 187 total yards in the first half alone. But as the game wore on, the Niners pass rush became increasingly more effective and Stafford became increasingly more desperate to throw it to Kupp. Once the Niners took the lead, the inability for the Rams to run the ball allowed Nick Bosa and Co to pin their ears back, pound that battered Rams Oline and force Stafford into the rushed and hurried throws we’ve seen from him for most of this season. That’s where the start and end of the Rams woes are on offence. The offensive line simply isn’t there this season as the Rams are 31st in rushing yards and 28th in points. Likewise the receiving corps this year still isn’t totally there. Allen Robinson has shown glimpses of his old self in recent weeks but there’s still isn’t anyone on the roster that brings what OBJ brought during that magical SB run of last year. The loss sets them back as a clear third in the division and they don’t possess an easy schedule from here on out. They still have the Saints, Chiefs, Seahawks X2 and Chargers remaining on the schedule among others. Their most impressive win as it stands is….the Falcons? Even that was a game they almost blew at the end. While the season isn’t over for them quite yet, Mcvay now finds himself in an uphill battle for a playoff spot.

Vegas

The award for most embarrassing loss of the week goes to the Las Vegas Raiders. I once hailed this team as a dark horse for the AFC West. Given the addition of Devante Adams and Josh Mcdaniels, it didn’t seem like a crazy idea that the Raiders would turn the ship around this season. Coming off a win in which they dominated the hapless Texans, it seemed plausible that they’d be riding some momentum and at the very least, fight a razor close game against a Saints squad that loves to give up points. That was apparently a crazy assumption as Vegas not only lost by 24 points, they got shut out and didn’t cross the 50 yard line until the final garbage time drive of the game. Carr threw for just 101 yards and Adams had a single catch for 3 yards. This is a low point in a season that’s featured a lot of low points. The loss all but puts the nail in the coffin for their season as they look towards next year and figure out what the future of their franchise holds.

Bengals

Last on the losers list is the Bengals. Although the final score might indicate that this was once a competitive game that just got away from the Bengals, that couldn’t be further from the truth. After a successful opening drive moving the ball that ended in a red zone INT, the Cincy offence wouldn’t even sniff the Browns red zone until the fourth quarter. All of this in spite of the Browns playing a pretty poor first half themselves. Amari Cooper threw an awful INT on a trick play and apart from a single long TD drive, had done little in the first half despite Cincy doing nothing offensively. As a result, it was just an 11-0 lead at halftime. It was the third quarter where the game blew open though as Jacoby Brisett got in the zone and marched down the field twice in the third for a TD score. That pushed the Browns to a 25-0 lead entering the 4th quarter. Cincy would respond with their first TD of the game but Jacoby punched them in the mouth right back with another score. Burrow would respond once more but at that point the game was all but done given the score. Cincy was held scoreless until the 4th, Mixon was once again unable to get anything going on the ground and the Bengals Oline got dominated by the return of Myles Garett. In the first half, the Bengals had just 100 yards of total offence and accumulated just 229 yards total on the day. Burrow is now 0-4 against the Browns who stopped a 4 game losing streak. While Jamarr Chase was always going to impact the effectiveness of the offence, this was meant to be one of the best WR cores in the league. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may not be the best 1-2 duo in the league but it’s far from the worst one around. It also sets the Bengals back a ways in the playoff race as their already down a game to the Ravens who own the tiebreaker over them. Their saving grace is the comfortable November schedule facing the gauntlet in December and January. By then, they hope Chase will be back and this offence can return to the spooky status that they attained around that time last season.

Honourable Mentions

Saints and Commies

Last but not least, a couple of honourable mentions before we get out of here. As much as Vegas laid a goose egg, it’s worth praising the Saints who finally discovered that this Alvin Kamar guy is pretty good, who knew? Continuing to roll out Dalton has been a bold choice. The game he had against Arizona was certainly a benchable offence but Dennis Allen is sticking to his guns and choosing the more risk adverse (in theory) QB and it paid off this week. It’s easy to be skeptical of their future this season. Neither QB holds any answers long term but for the time being, they’re third in a razor close division race that’s only separated by a game. For the Commies, they’re in the opposite position. Their division is what’s killing a competent team that’s won it’s last three to bring their record to 4-4. The wins have all been close. Most of them have been ugly. But wins are wins and the defence is coming into its own. It’s difficult to call Heinickie an improvement over Wentz. He’s every bit as mistake prone. But like Sota, you can’t argue with the results when you get them. It seems unlikely they’ll be playoff bound given the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles all hold large leads over them. But if they can beat the Giants twice, it’s feasible that they somehow manage to pull off the impossible and be the 4th NFC East team that makes a playoff appearance.

That wraps it up for the week. Got this one out early as I had a bit more time to work on it during the week. The current plan at the moment is to pump out an updated power rankings list this week. Won’t likely drop until Saturday or Sunday but check in the next few days if you’d like to see me cringe and compare my week 4 rankings to week 8. I promise it won’t be as long as the last rankings. Probably limit that one to a short paragraph for each squad, noting what has changed in the last four weeks to justify the ranking shift. Hope you all have a good week, until next time, this has been Kurt.

Winners and Losers for Week 7 of the NFL season

Hello one and all, welcome back to another week of winners and losers. It was a week that was every bit as horrific as it looked on paper with just a select few quality games. Close games were few and far between in a week that had more blowouts than one possession games (8-7). Those one possession games weren’t exactly pretty either as it was poor play that was the deciding factor as opposed to some outstandingly played and coached football. Before getting into the winners and losers for the week, we’re going to have some quick honourable mentions.

First one goes to the Giants who once again defied the oddsmakers and won yet another tight game despite trailing in the 4th quarter. They managed this by taking the lead on a drive that featured precisely 0 passing yards (69 through the ground and to be fair, Jones did attempt passes). Then on the following drive, did exactly the same thing and got a FG to push the lead out to 6. Even still, Jacksonville had every opportunity to win the game but just like most Giants opponents this season, made critical errors when it mattered most. First, Etienne fumbled it into the Giants endzone. Then Lawrence was unable to QB sneak a yard on 4th down on the Giants 21-yard line (go watch the attempt if you want a picture-perfect example of how not to do one). If all that wasn’t bad enough, they fell a yard short on the games final play that would have won them the game. As it stands, the Giants are 6-1 despite not having a single two possession lead this entire season and have won 4 of their last 5 despite trailing in the 4th quarter in 3 of those wins.

Second one goes to the Jets who won an ugly, UGLY game against Denver (is there any other kind). After Denver responded to the Jets first quarter score, we wouldn’t see another TD for the rest of the game. Wilson has still yet to prove he’s what the Jets are after at QB and the loss of Breece Hall could potentially sink their offence for the season. But beating the Denver defence is no joke, no matter who’s at QB and they’ve placed themselves just a single game back from the Bills in the AFC East.

The last honourable mention goes to the Seahawks who took advantage of a couple early Charger mistakes to take a 17-0 first quarter and never looked back. To the Chargers credit, they did rally to bring back to a 3 point in the second quarter. But the banged up and leaky Chargers defence wouldn’t hold and the squad would ultimately be killed by their own mistakes, something that seems to occur every Chargers season. Special mention goes the absurd Seahawks drive in the third quarter that lasted 10 minutes of game time. Even though it only resulted in a FG, to kill the clock in such a major way while up two possessions, is something we haven’t seen much this season. Kenneth Walker also looks like a star in the making, grabbing a pair of TD’s to go with 168 yards. Seattle aren’t the best team in football but they do own the lead in a tight division race that where every team has its major flaws.

Now onto the proper winners and losers for week 7 of the NFL season.

Winners

CHIEFS

In a game that was billed as an elite offence playing an elite defence, it was the offensive firepower of KC that shone through. It didn’t initially appear that way though as KC faced an early 10-0 deficit after a Mahomes INT. But the limitations of Jimmy G didn’t take long to shine through as he’d throw an awful floater of a ball that got picked off despite being gifted a red zone opportunity thanks to a KC special teams turnover. Combine that with settling for a couple first half FG’s and the Niners would walk into halftime down one despite a pair of KC turnovers as well as a missed KC FG to end the half. Mahomes and co would march down the field and score TD’s on both possessions of the second half while the Niners had to settle for yet another FG while in KC territory. That gave KC a 12 point lead entering the 4th. But all was not lost for the Niners as Jimmy G led a surprisingly lost and un-Niners like drive, throwing the ball on every play but one and overcoming two different first and 20 downs to bring the game back to a one score game after a Kittle TD. All the sudden, this game resembled a shootout as with 14 left to go in the 4th, the game had already eclipsed it’s predicted total points scored. But beating KC in a shoot out isn’t something any team wants (not even the Bills). KC would rally back and score a TD of their own before a monstrous Frank Clark sack resulted in a safety. Mahomes would notch his third TD of the game and just like that, the game was over. Chad Henne and Brock Purdy would get some garbage time work before wrapping things up.

It was a strange game to watch as you felt like it was just a matter of time before KC blew it open and while that’s what eventually happened, the Niners were in it for far longer than you’d think. KC’s defence continues to be extremely hit or miss as Jimmy gashed them through the air throughout most of this game. Were it not for his litany of mistakes, this game likely comes down to the one possession affairs we’ve seen from the Chiefs throughout most of this season. But you can’t argue with the results as KC dropped 44 on a defence that was meant to be one of the best in the league. Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and Juju had his second straight game of 100+ yards and a score to boot. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for the Chief’s offence though was the rushing attack that continues to have glimpses of productivity before disappearing like a fever dream. This week it was a triumvirate of Pacheco, CEH and Mckinon that showed there may just be some balance in the KC offence yet. Now entering their bye week with a 5-2 record and a clear lead in their division, it should be cruise control throughout the rest of the season. They have 3 games against the abysmal AFC South still to play while their own division continues to flounder. The Chargers still pose a threat given they’re only one game back and played KC tightly the last go around. But a lot has changed since that week two outing and it’s hard to see a future in which the Chiefs don’t comfortably take the one or two seed in the AFC.

Bears/Justin Fields

For those who read my power rankings piece back in week 4, I’m certain you’re finding this incredibly amusing. Three weeks ago, I wrote an obituary of Justin Fields and the Bears. I was so disgusted by their offensive output that I felt quite comfortable writing the following

“Yeahhhhhh, the Fields era may be done after just a couple years. They may have a 2-2 record but their two wins are a monsoon-esque win over the niners and a 3 point victory over the winless Texans. That tells you all you need to know but if your desperate for more, here it is. They’re third in the league in rushing which is great. They average 97.5 yards per game passing which is not so great. They’re 4th in the league in passing defence which is great. They’re 32nd in the league in rushing defence which is not so great. Still need more? Fine. Fields has attempted 67 passes through 4 games, completing 34 of them while throwing 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Despite so few passing attempts, he's been sacked 16 times for a loss of 81 yards. All hope for this team centres around losing more games and acquiring professionally trained offensive lineman and a professional QB.”

To be fair, since writing that, the Bears have only won a single game. That being the decisive victory this past week against the Patriots. But Fields has shown some gradual improvement in the following weeks since that piece was written. He’s thrown for 208,190 and 179 yards his past three games while having a passing TD in each. He’s thrown an INT his past two games and has had 9 sacks his last two games combined (not to mention 4 fumbles this past week). However, he’s also had 80+ rushing yards his past two games and is coming off a performance that showed glimpses of a future that features himself as the Bears QB next year. If all of this sounds like I’m complimenting Fields whilst dancing on eggshells, it’s because I am. There’s clear improvements in his play but it’s coming from a bar that was set incredibly low. Like, Barbados Slim limbo low. Were this an most QB prospects, his numbers would still be earning obituary rights. But submitting a solid performance in a dominant victory over Bellicheck and the Patriots is going to garner you a lot of attention. It likely doesn’t last but for the week, it’s hard to argue that Fields hasn’t earned at least one week in the winners column.

Bengals

Our final winner for the week isn’t one I’m going to spend a ton of time on. Especially after the news of Jamarr Chase being potentially out for the season which limits them moving forward.  Likewise, I won’t spend a ton of time dissecting the victory over Atlanta. It was an fairly impressive win given the injuries to the Bengals defensive line and the Falcons ability to stay in games through their unorthodox rushing attack. But that’s not the real story of the game given the Falcons are the team least likely to rally a comeback from a major deficit given their style of play. Instead, it’s the Bengals ability to gain the large lead in the first place which should be cause for celebration for Cincy fans. The Bengals scored TD’s on their first four possessions of the game, opening up a 28-17 halftime lead. While the second half saw the scoring dry up quicker than a Big Ben alibi, Cincy stayed in control for the rest of the game and cruised to an easy victory. After a shaky start to the year, Burrow is on a heater, throwing for 342 yards and 3 TD’s in just the first half against ATL. Likewise in a win against the Saints, Burrow had his first 300-yard game of the season and threw for another 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The offensive line still has its issues. Neither the Falcons nor Saints possess the world’s greatest pass rush but were still able to get to Burrow more often than they should. But if this Bengals team has any hope of replicating last years magic, it’s going to be through a dynamic, high-powered offence. Even with Chase out, if he’s able to return, Cincy can survive November pretty comfortably given their opponents and they’re neck and neck with the Ravens in a race to win the division.

Losers: Packers-Tampa

I’ll dive into each team separately but given the nature of the losses, it feels appropriate to clump both these teams together. It’s hard to know where to begin with both these teams given almost nothing changed from last week. But let’s start with the Packers. This is what I wrote of the Packers last week:

“It’s the first time in the Lafluer-Rodgers era that they’ve lost back to back games. It quite literally can’t get much worse. Fortunately for Rodgers, they have the Commies this week. If there was ever going to be a get right game, it’s this one. But the Commies have a feisty defence. That pass rush is as legit as they come and it won’t be a cruisy win where Rodgers gets to feel good. It’ll likely be a fight for the offence. But defensively, this is the game where GB should feast given the news of Wentz being out and Heinickie getting one last chance to dance.”

Turns out I was half right. The defence initially appeared to feast, holding the Commies to just 10 first half points with all but one drive being convincing shut outs of the Commander offence. Neither team had much of anything resembling success moving the ball as Heinickie and Rodgers were doing they’re best spiderman “you, no you” meme impression. It was as sloppy mess that resulted in a 14-10 GB halftime lead where GB’s defence had just as many points as it’s offence. What no one expected though is for the Commies to come out in the 2nd half and just march all over GB defence. Of the first 3 2nd half possessions for the commies, they scored 13 points and controlled the clock for 15 minutes of game time, giving them a 23-14 lead with just 6:40 left to go in the 4th. Were this the Packers of old, it would’ve been safe to say that settling for two chip shot FG’s against Rodgers is a recipe for disaster. But this is far from the “fear the dragon” era of the Packers at this point. While GB would come back to score a TD and bring it to just a two-point game, the defence was unable to get one final stop, reminiscent of the Giants loss a couple week prior.

Speaking of games prior, this is now the third straight loss for the Packers, the first sub 200-yard game of the season for Rodgers and the first game where the Packers didn’t have a third down conversion in a game since 1999. Unbelievably, this isn’t even a game where you could argue the Packers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, it was the commanders who were the better team throughout and it was only the late score at the end by GB that made this game appear closer than it actually was. It appeared as though the Jets loss was the low point of the season but it seems like the worst is yet to come. They play the Bills in prime-time next week and it’s hard to envision a world in which they snatch the division title anymore. Instead, the best the Packers can hope for it seems is a wildcard berth. Luckily for them, they’re far from the only team sinking in the ocean of 3-4 though a loss to the Bills will only set them even further behind the pack.

                                                      Tompa Bay            

What is left to say of the Bucs…. Honestly. If the Packers loss was disaster then the Bucs loss to the Panthers amounts to a full blown apocalypse. The awfulness of this loss wasn’t even comedic. Unlike the joyful and hilariously entertaining losses of your typical Broncos or Browns games, the Bucs failures have just been a tragedy. Despite walking in as a 13.5-point favourite, Tampa not only failed to cover but failed to even score the amount of the points they were favoured by. It’s not even worth recounting the game given its quality. Instead, let’s focus upon the futility of the Bucs this season. Last week, this is what I wrote of the Bucs:

“In each of those games, Ryan Succop has kicked more FG’s than Brady has thrown TD’s”

“Brady has just a single game of passing for more than 1 TD. He’s thrown 40 or more times in each of his past four games and has thrown 50 or more in two of the past three. This is an offence that’s desperately slinging the ball and has little to show for it. Besides the KC game, they’ve failed to score anything more than 21 points this season”

“They’ve beaten ATL and NO already and Carolina aren’t a threat to anybody. So they may wind up winning the division by default. But any hope of a SB run seems tenuous at best unless their able to fix the offence.”

YEESH. It turns out even a mention of a SB run seems so outdated just a week later. Carolina, who may not be a threat to anybody, turned out to be a very real threat to the Bucs. The rest of those statistics got even stronger by the way. Succop scored the only points for the Bucs as Brady threw for his first game without a TD all season. He threw for 49 times in a 3 point effort and has just 9 TD’s off of 340 attempts, good for one TD every 37.7 pass attempts. That’s simply staggering given what this team has been since Brady joined them 3 years ago. There’s little else to say about this game and this team. It has to rank as the lowest point of Brady’s career and despite that, they’re still in the NFC South title race with no team having a record above 500 let alone at 500.  

Wrap Up

A shorter article than I typically write I know. Also, only two losers for the week instead of three isn’t something I ordinarily do. I initially had the Pats in the loser’s column but after careful consideration, decided against it. Although it was a bit of an embarrassing lose for NE, given the season’s expectations placed on them, it’s hard to call a loss to the bears worthy of the loser’s column. That game comes across as one of those we’d witness every season in the Brady era and wonder if this was the year where the wagon would fall off. The only difference now is that the Patriots are capable of games like these without the comfort of knowing it’ll all turn around. This is more or less who the Patriots are now. A well-coached team (most of the time), capable of pulling off some stupid losses and lacking the talent at QB to make up for the talent deficiencies in other areas. So with all that said, I hope you’ve enjoyed a slight tweaking to the winners and losers formula for the week. Moving forward, I’ll likely incorporate more honourable mentions as it gives some shine to teams who may pull off a nice win but do so against some lacklustre opponents. That’s it for this week, I’ll see you next time out.

Kurtis Wenban

Winners and Losers week 6

We’re just about one third of the way through the season and so far we’ve learned more about two high safety defences than we ever thought we would. The era of high-volume scoring has seen a drastic step back this year and discussion has been centred around the lack of great teams. Indeed, there appears to be just two teams that stand above the rest currently while everyone else is fighting to be taken seriously. There was upsets galore this week but it’s telling that few of them were all that surprising. In total, there was 8 games where underdogs covered the spread this week which seems like a lot but is actually less than we’ve had the past two weeks. It’s only the nature of some losses that give the impression that this was a particularly upset heavy week. Given we are roughly a third into the season however, I’ve decided to spend more time covering some extra winners and losers this week

Winners

Eagles

Let’s start with the most hated rival of my own team and the best team in the whole NFC. Philly have gone again notched a win to stay undefeated by doing what they’ve done all season. All season long the Eagles have faced some pretty terrible QB’s and abused teams for trotting them out there by generating 17 sacks (top 10 in the league) and forcing 9 INT’s (good for 2nd). All this while the offence plays mistake free football. Hurts has just two INT’s on the year and hasn’t fumbled it once despite his rushing prowess. If this is sounding vaugley familiar to what Dallas does (minus the rushing QB part), that’s because it is. They may move the ball quite differently but both teams share a similar overall philosophy on how a game script should be carried out. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that this game largely went as most diehard NFC East fans thought it would. Dallas started the game with a 3 and out as Philly loaded the box on third and short. While a Dorrance Armstrong sack would force Hurts to fail a long third down attempt. After another Dallas punt off an errant Cooper Rush pass, Philly opened the playbook. Apparently the best way to stop Micah Parsons from ruining your offence is not block him at all. By going with an RPO heavy gameplan, Hurts essentially froze Parsons in place, forcing him to either commit to a rush, spy on Hurts or try and cover the WR who’s leaking out. Combine that with Hurt’s ability to juke rushers out of their shoes and all the sudden moving the ball against this vaunted defence seemed possible. As a result, a TD would be scored, putting pressure on Dallas to respond. They did so by throwing an INT as a result of an incredibly Bradbury play. All the sudden, Cooper Rush had made a mistake in his own half of the field while down 7-0. For Dak, this likely isn’t a game breaking mistake but for Rush, it was. Especially after AJ Brown would punch it in to make it 14-0. It was a pretty remarkable play call on the part of Siriani to get Brown open. Brown is lined up in the backfield sitting in an offset pistol position while Hurts is in shotgun with Sanders to his right. As the ball is snapped, Brown runs a sweep in the backfield, Hurts has the option to hand it off to Sanders or pass it to brown depending on Parsons reacts. Parsons is frozen in place, Brown gets by him and is able to walk it in for a score.

It seemed like it couldn’t go any better for the Eagles. Only it could as the refs somehow marked a clear first down as short. Instead of challenging, Mcarthy opted to call a hurry up play on 4th and one from the Dallas 34, hoping to catch the Eagles off guard. No one was surprised however and a badly thrown ball by Rush was broken up. The subsequent Philly drive would result in a FG while Cooper Rush would throw yet another INT, this time to Kirk Cousins favourite target in that of Darius Slay. It was an ill advised ball right from the start as Slay would undercut the route and all but seal this game up before halftime. Yet despite that, it would only be another FG for the Eagles while Dallas would respond on their final drive to set the halftime score at 20-3. That sounds like a commanding lead, and it is. But it seemed like the lead should be larger given the dominance of the first half. Some of that stems from settling for two FG’s. But it’s also a result of the long, clock killing drives the Eagles have had this season. Which makes the difference between TD’s and FG’s all the greater given there’s so fewer possessions in Eagles games, especially if the offence has a three and out or two. Which is more or less what the Eagles had in the second half as Dallas would fire off two time consuming drives of their own, resulting in a pair of TD’s and with 14 to go left in the game, it was now just a 3 point game.

But Philly would finally do what great teams do. They marched down the field, dominating the Dallas defence through small gainers before finally punching it in the endzone off a wonderfully schemed up play for Devonta Smith. Just like that, the game went from a Philly choke job to seemingly inevitably over. Dallas would get another couple chances to bring it close but both possessions ended from signs of desperation. First it was yet another ill-advised Cooper Rush INT while the other was a 59 yard FG that had more people worried about a backdoor cover than it had to do with a last second rally.

It was always going to be tricky game to evaluate for Philly. If they won, people would say they beat up on a backup QB who won’t be there in their next matchup. If they had lost, people would have called the Eagles fraudulent. Instead, the Eagles did what they needed to do and through some unique play-calling, carved up one of the best defensive lines in the NFC. That can’t be taken away regardless of how Cooper Rush played. Once again, the Philly offence would have its moments of vanishing and letting teams back in the game that they had dead and buried. But like most of their wins this season, they came up with a long TD drive when they needed it and sealed the victory.

Vikings

That’s right, you’ve read it correctly. I finally included this 5-1 squad on the list again as every sports writer continues to reluctantly include the Vikings in any and all SB chatter. Their wins are almost always ugly as hell but on some level, we can’t all continue to ignore the record, no matter how strong or weak it may appear. It started off ugly for the Vikings as they had four straight 3 and outs while Miami would kill their own drives with penalties. A FG in the second by the Dolphins finally opened the scoring before Kirk remembered he has both Thielen and Jefferson to throw to as he marched down the field to Miami’s one. There, Irv Smith got wide open off a play action fake and finally it appeared that we had a ball game. But Sota would go three out on it’s ensuing possession but would get a FG to close the half after a hilarious and absurd INT by Harrison gave the Vikings a chip shot FG at the 34. It really did appear like Sota didn’t want to win this game as despite Miami giving them countless opportunities to take over, the Vikings were simply incapable of moving the ball throughout most of this game, which included the third quarter as they produced three more 3 and outs.

But the levee would finally break in the 4th as we saw both teams notch a couple TD’s. Firstly it was Sota as Jefferson broke off a huge chunk play to bring it to the one before Thielen found the end zone. Miami would score right back after a couple big plays from Gisecki and Hill. Of course, it wouldn’t be a quarter without a Sota 3 and out but fortunately for them, Waddle would fumble giving it straight back. The seas would then part for Dalvin Cook as he rumbled it in for a long score. A successful 2pt conversion later and Sota were up 24-10 with just 3:15 left in a game where they had been largely ineffective on offence throughout most of the game. Teddy Bridgewater would throw a dumb INT into double coverage on the ensuing possession so the game seemed all but wrapped up. But no as Sota would once again go three and out, giving Miami one final hope in this dog water game. They’d march down the field quickly and score with 1:24 left on the clock. It would turn out to be a superficial score as the Vikings recovered the onside kick and went into victory position.  

This was an incredibly ugly game to dive through and exemplifies why so few people want to rate the Vikings as good this year. Throughout most of the game defensive the offensive talent and facing a third string QB for a half, Minnesota were incapable of moving the football. Out of the 14 offensive possessions they had (not including the kneel down at the end), Minnesota had 10 three and out’s. This against a defence that’s notorious for giving big plays. That’s astoundingly bad and would ordinarily lose you the game. But the Vikingsg defence held up extremely well and although the box score is harsher on Bridgewater than how he actually played, neither he nor Skyler Thompson are the teams starting QB’s. It’s hard not to wonder that had they played this game with Tua under the helm, they’d have lost. However, much like the Eagles victory, you can only beat what’s in front of you. While Sota continue to win some horrifically ugly football games, they nonetheless continue to win games and pull ahead in their division where they possess a two-win advantage as well as owning the tiebreaker over GB.

Jets

I almost had them in the winners column last week after the dominant win against the Dolphins. But give Miami was rolling with a third string QB 2 plays into the game, I figured it best to show some restraint and go for a more wait and see approach. Well the wait is over as for the second consecutive week, a NY based team has beaten the Packers. While the Giants victory was close against GB, this one was not. It all started ugly as neither team was able to do more than string together the occasional first down or two as the pass rushes of both teams would dominate the early going. After a spectacular catch by Allen Lazard, it seemed like scoring would finally open up. We should all know better though as GB’s special teams would haunt them for yet another season and Quinnen Williams blocked the Packers FG attempt. After a fumble by AJ Dillion, the Jets would snag a FG of their own to take the lead before GB would tie it up at the end of the half.

If this sounds like a rehash of the Sota game, that’s because it more or less was in the first half. Thankfully though, some remarkably busted defensive assignments would get the Jets (and this game) a TD as they took a 10-3 lead. Remember how I talked about the Packers busted special teams? Well it happened again as seemingly no one decided to block Michael Clemons on a punt block and the Jets returned it for 6. To the Packers credit though, they’d fire back and make it just a one score game entering the 4th. That’s as close as they’d make it however with the Jets driving down the field and returning the favour, pushing the score back up to 24-10 . Another FG off a 14 play drive that featured 60 rushing yards and 0 passing yards would seal the game as for the second time this season, we saw Jordan love trotted out onto the field.

It was the third straight win for the Jets and while the game was a bit closer than the final score indicates, it’s hard to deny them their place off the winners list, having now achieved a 4-2 record while winning their last 3 games. Zach Wilson didn’t play a great game as he’s still only thrown for a single TD this season. There’s little he’s done so far has inspired much confidence as the future of this franchise. But currently, it doesn’t seem to matter too much as the young nucleus of this team is doing work. Sauce Gardner has been astounding draft choice for them, locking down opposing WR’s at every turn while Breece Hall and Garett Wilson appear to be this teams biggest offensive threats. Although Garett hasn’t done much with Zach under the helm, it’s hard to ignore what his impact looked like with Flacco under centre. Finally, Quinnen Williams appears to have finally delivered on all his pre-draft promise as he dismantled the GB offensive line and blew the game wide open defensively.  There’s still a lot of caution to be felt for this squad given the question marks around Zach Wilson as well as the division their in. But like sota and Philly on this list, you can’t deny the victories that exist. While things may change in the future, as of now, the Jets are a squad that have earned some respect.

Giants

Our final winner of the week is also the second NY based team on the list. It’s hard to believe that both these teams are good at the same time but here we are. After entering as 8 point underdogs against the Packers and pulling off the upset, common sense would’ve dictated that the 5-1 Giants can’t be any worse than a FG underdog right? Wrong, as this Danny Dimes led squad walked were 5.5 point dogs at home in MetLife playing a team that has a penchant for blowing solid leads. History tends to have a way of repeating itself and that’s exactly what happened in this game as the Ravens controlled the ball throughout the first half but had only built a 10-7 lead. Daniel Jones had another half where the numbers and the eye test continue to not match up. Jones by the numbers is having an average year at best and a terrible one at worst depending on how much you value yards compared to completion percentage. But Jones’s ability to manoeuvre inside and out of the pocket continues to be an underrated trait which is a comical thing to say for a guy who’s been sacked 19 times this season and faces pressure on seemingly every drop back. The third quarter featured a couple long drives by both squads that resulted in FG’s before scoring opened up in the 4th (sound familiar?). Lamar would do the things only he is capable of and a TD throw to Andrews would see the Ravens with a 10 point 4th quarter lead.

At this point in the season, this should have alarmed Ravens fans as this is the point where they blow leads while at the same time, this is where the Giants have rallied. They did it against GB the previous week and did it in their season opener against the Titans. It seemed like destiny as the Giants went on a near 7-minute TD drive to bring it to 3 points. With 3 minutes left facing a third and 6, it all fell apart. The snap was botched and while Lamar recovered it, he’d throw a baffling off balance pass into double coverage that got picked off. Three plays later and the Giants would score giving them a four-point cushion. Even after all that however, the Ravens still had a chance to win. They had the ball with 1:43 left on the clock and all three timeouts. Hope of a comeback however lasted all of two plays as Lamar would get stripped of the football and the Giants recovered, sealing the victory for big blue. It’s a game that encapsulated the season so far for both teams. The Ravens sealed defeat from the jaws of victory while the giants snatched victory. It can’t be sustainable for the Giants. It just can’t. Every statistic on earth is screaming that the Giants are fraudulent. By DVOA, they’re the second worst 5-1 team of all time. You could argue they should have lost at least 3 other games this season besides the one to Dallas. And yet, here they stand at 5-1. The running theme for the winners list this week is that you can only deny the record for so long. So… for now, the Giants belong on here. It likely won’t last but we’ve been calling for the demise of this team for an age and we haven’t arrived at it yet. Congrats Giants fans, no one understands how you’ve got these wins but as of now, your second in the NFC East and are playing a Jags team that makes game breaking decisions. Sounds like a recipe for a Giants win to me.

Losers

Ravens

Let’s kick off with the Ravens shall we. There’s no point diving into the game given we’ve already done that but yeesh, let’s discuss some Baltimore football. If the Vikings are a fraudulent 5-1 team, then you could call the Ravens a fake 2-3 team. In each of their three losses, they could have or should have, won the game. The disaster in Miami has already been well covered but just to refresh your memory, Baltimore had a 35-14, 4th quarter lead and saw it all slip away. Against the Bills, they held a 20-3 lead and a 10-point lead at half-time. They failed to score at all in the second half and lost by 3. Finally, against the Giants, they held a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter and lost the game, turning the ball over on each of their final two possessions. They’ve been outscored in the fourth quarter in 3 of their past four games (tied NE 6-6 in the other game). Lamar is almost averaging 300 total yards per game yet they still lack a leading WR to replace Hollywood Brown (who himself was hardly a WR1). Dobbins has just landed on IR and it seems like half their defence is either questionable, out or on IR. The one saving grace for this squad is that the division is an utter mess. Cincy hasn’t looked like the SB team of last year and they hold the tiebreaker over them. Perhaps the Browns once Watson comes back becomes a threat but there’s no guarantee their in a position to do come week 12. And the Steelers Steelers despite the hilarious and absurd win, are far from a divisional threat for the season. If the Ravens blow the game against the Browns though, some questions need to be laid at the feet of Harbough and Lamar moving forward.

Packers

Like the Ravens before them, this game has already been covered so I won’t dive into the paticulars for that one. Instead, let’s reflect and see if anything from their place in the losers column last week applies here.

“Instead, we saw an incredibly talented defence underperform while the offence moved away from its identity and lost themselves within this game. Rodgers doesn’t have the receiving talent to make this team a pass heavy threat. But the defence does have the talent to be a good to great defence which makes it all the more bizarre that they lost the way they did. They’ve got a week 6 matchup against the Jets who may have the firepower to upset this team which is a sentence I never thought I’d utter even a week ago.”

Yeah no, nothing has changed here it seems. Once again a talented defence underperformed and got scorched on the ground yet again. They now rank first in passing yards defensively but 27th in rushing yards. Although they average only 20.5 points allowed this season, that’s been cushioned through the opening three weeks of the season. Over the last two weeks, this defence has given up precisely 27 points each game whilst the offence has scored 22 and 10. Defensively it seems like things have been fairly consistent and although that outside look doesn’t take into account pick 6’s, turnovers, short field position and the like, it is indicative of the overall trend for where this team is going. Against a third string, 4th round rookie QB playing his first game with no prep time, it was enough as they beat NE. It hasn’t been enough the past two weeks though and the offence has looked like it’s struggling for air most of this season. It’s not just on the declining play of Rodgers either. The offensive line has been blown apart several times this season and the WR’s are hit and miss this season. Losing Cobb will only exacerbate their receiving issues and you have to wonder if Rodgers is envious of the success other rookie WR’s have had this year with far lesser QB’s. Even the run game hasn’t been working for them the past two weeks as Aaron Jones has been relegated to the void it seems like while AJ Dillion does the grunt work. It’s the first time in the Lafluer-Rodgers era that they’ve lost back to back games. It quite literally can’t get much worse. Fortunately for Rodgers, they have the Commies this week. If there was ever going to be a get right game, it’s this one. But the Commies have a feisty defence. That pass rush is as legit as they come and it won’t be a cruisy win where Rodgers gets to feel good. It’ll likely be a fight for the offence. But defensively, this is the game where GB should feast given the news of Wentz being out and Heinickie getting one last chance to dance.

Bucs

This is going to be a quick one as I just couldn’t bare to watch such an ugly and abysmal game but figure it was worth noting all the same. Brady’s one final ride hasn’t gone as expected to say the least. At no point did the Bucs lead this game. At half, the Bucs were down 10-9 thanks to a single long TD drive by the Steelers that got them a TD while the Bucs had plenty of success moving the ball but had to settle for a trio of FG’s. Even after a long return set the Steelers in the red zone, they were unable to score and another FG went up. Tampa would respond in kind before mercifully, another TD was scored giving the Steelers an 8-point lead. Yet again, Tampa would respond with their own score but were unable to convert on the two point conversion (despite nailing two fourth and ones on the drive) and stayed down two points.

It’s Trubitsky though needing to drive down the field and seal the game. Seemed likely the Bucs would get the ball back right? Wrong, facing a third and 15 after a botched snap the previous down, Trubitsky would hit Claypool and convert. But no matter, the Bucs would have one more crack at it on third and 11. Once again, Mitch would connect with Claypool and seal the game. You’re not reading that wrong by the way. On two critical third and longs, the Bucs gave up first downs and lost the game. Still, I wouldn’t lay the blame purely on the feet of the defence. They held PIT to 20 points. It was Brady and the offence that were unable to score TD’s despite the Steelers missing 3 starting corners in addition to TJ Watt. Brady was screaming at his offensive lineman on the sidelines in what seems like a weekly occurrence at this point. It hasn’t been the worst season for the Bucs to this point given they hold a .500 record. But they’re 3 wins were against Dallas in week one, the Saints in week two and the Falcons in week 5. In each of those games, Ryan Succop has kicked more FG’s than Brady has thrown TD’s. Brady has just a single game of passing for more than 1 TD. He’s thrown 40 or more times in each of his past four games and has thrown 50 or more in two of the past three. This is an offence that’s desperately slinging the ball and has little to show for it. Besides the KC game, they’ve failed to score anything more than 21 points this season. Tampa average 264 YPG through the air (good for 6th) but are dead last in rushing YPG (just 67.5). Like the Ravens, their saving grace is the division they’re in. They’ve beaten ATL and NO already and Carolina aren’t a threat to anybody. So they may wind up winning the division by default. But any hope of a SB run seems tenuous at best unless their able to fix the offence.  

Broncos

We finally reach the weekly Broncos roast. Not going to lie, this is my favourite section of the column every week. I don’t know what else there is to say about Wilson at this point but I feel like it’s tradition to post what it cost Denver to acquire Wilson and what he’s produced since.

“Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed”.

“On the season, Wilson has completed 59.4% of his passes, averaging 250 YPG while throwing 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s and has been sacked 16 times”

So did Wilson improve on those numbers? In the first half, he sure as hell did as I suddenly got worried my Wilson roasts would be coming to an end. Ol Rusty initially looked pretty sharp as he was able to move and shift in the pocket like he used to, even managing to avoid a Kalil Mack sack on route to a big completion. He’d cap off two drives with 10 points while going 10 for 10. His TD pass was the first for Denver in 87 minutes of game time and they’d possess a 3 point going heading into the half. That’s as good as it would get though as it was only FG’s from there on out. Chargers would grab one in the third before Denver got one back after a Herbert INT. Both teams would get a chance to score one last time in regulation but neither came to close FG range and off to OT we went. After 174 total passing yards in the first half, Wilson would notch a grand total of 15 yards in the second. Guess what? Wilson wouldn’t add to that total in OT either as neither team picked up a single first down throughout the period. Despite everyone who’s not a Denver or Chargers fan rooting a tie, we were unlucky not to get one after a fumble on a punt return set up the Chargers for a game winning FG.

To recap that sloppy mess of a game; Denver’s defence held the chargers to 9 total points. They did not give up a single TD in the second half nor a first down in OT. Yet still the Broncos lost because Wilson had 6 more passing yards than the Chargers had scored points from the second half onwards. Russell Wilson managed to pull off a rare feat of both improving his numbers whilst at the same time playing even more disappointing football. A lot of things came out after this game regarding Wilson. A Subway add that was retracted. Video of him trying to hype up teammates whilst everyone ignored him. Obituaries written by the second on twitter as the game carried on in OT. A lot of this is kind of over the top and there’s something to be said about us as a whole probably being too mean to Wilson. But he’s also brought this upon himself to a certain extent. We haven’t heard him discuss his poor play at length. In fact, all we’ve heard is how Seattle protected, insulated and helped him thrive in that system which isn’t occurring here. I won’t delve into his personality as that’s a lot more speculative but his play on the field is the reason this team sits where it is. KC will almost certainly take the division. Perhaps a second place wild card berth is available given how good the defence is. But it’s hard to imagine that unless the offence drastically improves that they’ll be in the hunt come December when the tough part of their schedule occurs. It’s telling that with the recent news of Wilson missing time, there’s some hope that the offence improves under…. Brett Rypien. If you knew who that was prior to this week, kudos to you because few others do. He’s an undrafted player out of Boise St with a single career start to his name. But this may be the guy who gets Denver get on track. If that’s not the biggest statement as to Russell’s play this season, I don’t know what is.

TBD

KC- Bills

I didn’t get time to watch this game in full like I anticipated I would so instead of a deep dive into this one, I’ll have to leave with a promise to review it somewhere down the line. As of now, I left both teams off the list given the razor close nature of the victory. While you could certainly argue it was a major victory for the Bills to beat their main AFC rival on the road, I just didn’t have the time to watch this game and assess it like I properly should. So yes, the Bills are more or less in the winner’s column but I’m placing it aside here for now until I get a chance to review it.

That’s it for another week. Apologies for not getting to the Bills KC game. Hopefully get to it another week.

Winners and losers week 5 of the NFL season

We return to the winners and losers column this week after a quick hiatus as I wrote a lengthy piece that more or less explained that the more you learn and know about football, the more wrong you’ll end being. A few teams that I wrote lengthy obituaries about would wind up winning while a team I had championed as a dark horse contender would go on to lose to a winless football team. All of that is featured this week and in a month’s time, I think I’ll revisit that power rankings piece and see just how well everything I wrote holds up. For now, let’s dive into the winners and losers from a high scoring week 5 of football

Winners: NFC BEAST

Dallas

Only another sad sack loss by the Commies saved this from being a full NFC BEAST clean sweep as two teams who face each other in week 6, had impressive, albeit shaky victories. Dallas faced a rival only topped in the modern era by Aaron Rodgers and the Eagles as undefeated QB Cooper Rush marched into So-Fi stadium to play Sean Mcvay and Co who’ve owned Dallas since taking over play calling duties. But things have been ugly for the Rams this season. The offensive line has more holes in it than Deshaun Watson’s alibi’s which has stopped them from running the ball as well as protecting Stafford. That was no different this week as on the opening drive, Stafford was strip sacked by Dorrance Armstrong while Demarcus Lawrence returned it to the house for 6. On the ensuing possession, the Rams punt was blocked and another 3 points were tacked onto the board opening up a 9-0 lead for Dallas. To the Rams credit, they’d bounce back as Trevon Diggs got burned numerous times this game, one for 54 yards against TuTu Atwell. It was a first half that encapsulated everything that’s gone right and wrong for the Rams this season. Aaron Donald would continue to be one of, if not the best player on the defensive end while Kupp ran rampant against Diggs and whoever else he matched up against. Yet for all the star power, Los Angeles would be on the end of a 16-10 half-time deficit thanks to the terrific run blocking by the Dallas offensive line, paving the way for a 57-yard Pollard score. It was a half in which Cooper Rush had thrown for a Justin Fields esque 49 yards.

The third quarter would prove to be more of the same as Dallas ran the ball for almost 7 minutes and Cooper Rush would accumulate almost half of his total passing yardage for the game in a single drive (albeit for a net result of just 3 points). With little occurring to start the 4th quarter, Dallas would notch another FG, pushing the lead out to 22-10. Still, there was hope for the Rams, marching down the field and having the ball at the Dallas 25. But facing a third and 13 while escaping a couple of unblocked rushers, Stafford would throw a jump ball that sailed over double coverage and into the waiting arms of Dallas safety Malik Hooker. On the final drive of the game, Micah Parsons laid his own claim for being the best defensive player in football as he strip sacked Stafford for the second time (5th total) and ending the game. It was an ugly affair all around as Dallas continues to win off the back of it’s elite pass rush while playing conservative, run heavy football. Cooper Rush had his worst game of the season, being unable to complete much of anything besides a slick jump ball throw to the returning Gallup. He ended up with just 102 passings yards which didn’t matter as Dallas outran the Rams 163 yards to 38. Only three Dallas receivers would end up with a catch in what has to be one of the more perplexing box scores of the season. It’s a low point in the Rams season though this is also what the Dallas defence has done to every team it’s played, including the Brady led Bucs in week one. The only difference between that game and this victory is the emergence of a team identity. Play safe, mistake free football, rely on the defence for good field position and turnovers while scoring 20-23 points a game. It’s likely not a formula that will spell success for them against the Eagles this week but until Dak comes back, it’s good enough to maintain a winning record.

Philly

If you’re not an NFC East fan then this week isn’t for you as we dive into the second of the three division winners. I’m not going to a deep recap for this game like I normally do as the win itself was actually rather uninspired. It all started fine for Phiily as a strong opening drive saw Hurts pick apart the Cardinals defence with AJ Brown before rushing in for a score. The lead even got bigger as they scored another TD to open it up to 14-0. But Philly’s inconsistency would rear it’s ugly head here as Arizona fought back to a 14-10 deficit. After a several long but scoreless drives in the third, the game would spark back to life in the 4th as the Cardinals levelled the game at 17. Philly’s run game would chew the play clock and give the Eagles a 3 point lead with a minute and a half left. Kyler Muarry would march the Cardinals back down the field though a bizarre spike on third and one forced them to kick a 43 yard FG with 23 seconds left. It would go wide right and Philly would walk away with the victory. None of this is to say the Eagles got lucky. You make your own luck in football. This game did mark a bit of an ongoing issue for Philly however as they continue to let teams back into games instead of stomping on throats like elite teams typically do. KC and the Bills for instance are teams with real, legitimate playoff experience and will often pummel teams once they’ve surmounted a large lead. Of course, both those teams would have rough moments this year and have to rally back for victories. But we’ve seen enough from those teams to not question their title contender legitimacy. While Philly does have a couple of those wins, it’s hard to ignore the incompetency of the teams they played against in the blowout wins. Kirk played an awful game against them as his favourite target was Darius Slay. While Wentz and the Commies were… well, you know.

So why are they in the winner’s column? Because they won the game obviously. It wasn’t impressive and it certainly raises some more concerns but you also can’t ignore that they’re the only undefeated team left in football with a breezy schedule the rest of the way. This squad has the ability to win every which way as well, be it with a strong defence or a dual threat attack. Like I said in my power rankings piece last week, this isn’t your typical undefeated squad. They aren’t fraudulent nor are they juggernauts. They’re something in-between but so long as they keep beating teams they’re supposed to, you can’t keep them out of the winners column.

Giants

NFC BEAST BABYYYYYYY. Who on earth would’ve ever thought there’d be three NFC East teams in the winners column, let alone at a combined record of 13-2 through five weeks. We finally hit the trifecta with the New York Giants. Entering the game against Green Bay, there was a lot of scepticism about this Giants team. A lot of “the worst 4-1 team we’ve seen in a while” chatter. It wasn’t undeserved either as they won their first two games by a combined four points and had only beaten the Titans and Panthers. In week 3, they lost convincingly to Dallas before surviving against the Bears without a healthy QB. Going against GB in London, with Daniel Jones on a bad ankle, it seemed incredibly obvious that the fraudulent nature of this squad would be revealed with that porous Giants run defence getting exploited to death by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion. The start of the game wasn’t that far off that prediction as the Giants had back-to-back 3 and outs while the Packers built a 10-0 lead. What was surprising about the opening stanza was the method of attack from GB, moving the ball almost entirely through the air. That would be the story of the first half with Jones and dillion combining for just 52 yards on the ground while Rodgers would rack up 142 yards passing. Another unexpected wrinkle was the Giants ability to move the move the ball despite missing four starting WR’s and Jones being limited in his mobility. Danny Dimes would only be sacked once in the first half (negated by a defensive hold) and had a lot of success throwing against a pretty sturdy Packer secondary. A lengthy 7-minute drive was their only possession of the 2nd quarter which featured a diverse array of play calling that’s become somewhat of a trademark with new head coach Brian Daboll and was capped with a TE end around rushing score, bringing the game to a competitive 20-10 halftime score. The third featured two lengthy drives, one by each team that saw the Giants settling for a FG after a penalty stall the drive while the Packers still opted for a pass heavy attack instead of contesting the Giants D-line.

But it was the 4th quarter where things got wild and whacky. Saquon Barkley was ruled questionable to return but it really didn’t seem to matter as the Giants peppered GB with motion, got Danny dimes (hobbled ankle and all), to scramble around and marched down the Packers throats to tie the game. A quick GB 3 and out later and the Giants got the ball back and did what they had done since the start of the 2nd quarter, marching down the field after an explosive play by Barkley. After just 3 and a half minutes of game time, the Giants had punched it in for another score and had the lead for the first time all game, scoring on 5 straight possessions and outscoring GB 17-0 in the 2nd half. But this is the Packers. This is the dragon, the man who we’ve seen annihilate fans hopes and dreams just when you think your safe. Of course, he was going to drive down the field and score. Maybe even get a 2pt conversion and retake the lead. It really did seem like that’s what was going to happen, getting the ball down to the Giants 14 at the 2 minute warning. But then things started to fall off the wagon. First it was Aaron Jones running into his own lineman on 2nd and 4. Then it was a near INT off by a deflected pass. Finally, on 4th down, the pass rush got there once again and Lazard didn’t even have time to fully run his route as another Rodgers pass got deflected and fell harmlessly to the ground. Just like that, the game was over and one of the more surprising upsets this season had been pulled off. It may seem a little unnecessary to go into such detail on the final drive. But it’s a perplexing loss for GB and a marvellous win for the Giants as no matter how many times you watch it, the game still doesn’t make really make any sense. All credit to Brian Daboll and the Giants though. They were 8-point underdogs despite possessing the same record and had every reason in the world to lose this game. In London, QB hurt, WR’s hurt, Saquon banged up, facing Aaron Rodgers. But no, none of that would be a cop out and instead, the Giants have stayed in the brutal NFC East race that has the potential to feature 3 different playoff teams. It doesn’t get any easier for them next week as they play the Ravens but only one other team outside of their division possess the same record they have currently, meaning there’s breathing room, even if they stumble.

Loser: Green Bay

This is a quick one given the game was discussed at length above but it’s still worth placing the Packers firmly in the losers column this week. They lost a game they could have and should have won given all the injuries to the Giants. Hell, even when healthy, you’d have expected them to win. Instead, we saw an incredibly talented defence underperform while the offence moved away from its identity and lost themselves within this game. Rodgers doesn’t have the receiving talent to make this team a pass heavy threat. But the defence does have the talent to be a good to great defence which makes it all the more bizarre that they lost the way they did. They’ve got a week 6 matchup against the Jets who may have the firepower to upset this team which is a sentence I never thought I’d utter even a week ago. It isn’t time to hit the panic button on this team yet but if they lose next week, you’ll start seeing a lot of cheese heads worrying.

Winner: Tight Ends

The final winner this week is TE’s. This will be a short one but man oh man, what a week for Travis Kelce and Taysom Hill. Both players couldn’t be more different. Kelce is your prototypical elite tier TE, capable of being a great receiver who has earned the respect of being double and triple teamed across the field. The one place he wasn’t double or triple covered was in the red zone. Which was a rather big mistake by Vegas as Kelce went nuclear. 4 TD’s and a whopping 25 yards off 7 catches. Despite that, Kelce wasn’t the only “TE” to have 4 TD’s in week 5.

Taysom is…. Not your prototypical TE. He’s arguably not a TE at all. But he’s had a hell of a week notching 4 TD’s with 3 of them being rushing and one through the air. You read that correct, Taysom Hill actually completed a pass and for a score no less. His performance isn’t replicable on a week to week basis but it is remarkable what a unique player he is in this league. He posses little in the way of passing ability and he isn’t much of a receiver. But the fact he’s semi competent at both combined with being a large, imposing runner has made him into a legitimate red zone threat when utilised properly.

Losers

Denver/ Human Existence

Every week seems like its another roast for this Russell Wilson led Denver team. Week 5 was the low point of the season in a game so damn ugly, it’s really not worth diving into at length. To cover the basics of it, there was three field goals at halftime with Denver possessing a commanding 6-3 lead. By the end of the fourth quarter, Indy had valiantly rallied back to tie the game and send it into OT where they’d hold on to win the game. The game had 76,000 miserable fans in attendance, didn’t feature a single touchdown, had 11 three and outs, both QB’s threw two INT’s, Ryan was sacked 6 times and Wilson 4. It was truly one of the worst football games I’ve ever witnessed and yet as it went on, it took this wonderous and magical quality to it. Like a movie that’s so terrible it becomes “good”, that’s what it felt like watching this game. I could picture Russell Wilson screaming “YOUR TEARING ME APART SUTTON…. Oh hi Stephen Gilmore”. You couldn’t help but watch as both starting QB’s made mistake after mistake after mistake. Matt Ryan was dreadful once again in this game as he continues to hold the ball for far too long despite a wounded offensive line. I shit you not when I say that Ryan has fumbled the ball twice in each of his last 3 games. He’s fumbled at least once every single game and has 11 fumbles over 5 weeks. Were this not a game that had Wilson, we’d have all been reading his obituary from football this week as he commits the worst play of his entire career.

But Ryan wasn’t the only washed up QB playing in this game. Because for as bad as Ryan has been, Indy can at least claim they acquired him at a cheap price. The same can’t be said for Denver as I’m going to once again post what they paid for Wilson this offseason as it gets more and more hilarious by the week: “Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed. For that investment, Wilson gave them as dazzling 0 TD and 2 INT performance where he missed a wide open KJ Hamler on a designed rub route and instead stared down Courtland Sutton as Denver lost the game in OT on 4th and one. On the season, Wilson has completed 59.4% of his passes, averaging 250 YPG while throwing 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s and has been sacked 16 times. To put that into perspective, Wilson is 14th this season in passing yards, losing out to Seattle QB Geno Smith among others. His completion percentage is only higher than Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield amongst starting QB’s. He’s thrown the same amount of TD’s as Cooper Rush, Mayfield, Winston, Mariotta and Fields. He’s thrown for less TD’s than Flacco, Brissett, Mills, Ryan, Wentz and Geno. The only QB’s who’ve been sacked more than him are Fields, Wentz, Ryan, Stafford and Burrow. Denver is 31st in points scored this season and 30th on third down percentage. All of this is to say that the Wilson experiment in Denver could quite literally not be going any worse. Maybe that’s a positive. After all, Rusty has nowhere to go but up right? Well one would hope so because the man has endured more roasting the past week that he has his entire career combined up to this point. If it doesn’t get any better, don’t be surprised if Wilson “shoulder injury” suddenly gets worse as he suddenly starts to miss games and perhaps prays for a soft reset in 2023.

Refs

Next up on the chopping block is the refs. This will be another quick one as I got a little carried away in the burial of Wilson but who can blame me. Of course, when talking about the refs, I’m talking about two plays in particular. The first being Grady Jarett roughing the passer call and the second being a would be strip sack by Chris Jones that turned into a roughing the passer call. Both instances although different are more or less the same in that they’re calls designed to protect the QB. In Jarrett’s case he was…. Whipping Brady too forcefully in his attempt I guess? I honestly have no explanation for this one beyond it being a terrible call. Whereas the Chris Jones penalty I could at least see the whole bodyweight argument even if that’s a nonsensical argument as well. What is Jones supposed to do in his case. He’s rushing from Carr’s blindside so he’s always going to be initiating contact on Carr’s back. Even throughout the tackle process, he would end up bracing himself on the ground, using his hand to take some of the weight off of Carr and not completely crush him with his full weight (something I’d argue he shouldn’t even need to do in the first place). We all understand this is a QB driven league. The whole bodyweight rule came in after Rodgers broke his collarbone on a blindside hit. But this is a contact sport. On some level QB’s are going to get hurt unless you make it flag football and have DE’s rip the QB’s tags instead (although never count out a rule where your flagged for ripping a QB’s tags too forcefully). I don’t believe this is an overreaction to the whole Tua “concussion-gate” as neither play featured anyone wobbling or even going to the blue medical tent. It’s simply a case of over protecting the marquee position in football. But you can no longer go for QB’s knees nor their heads (I agree with both of these to be fair). A body shot is all that’s allowed now and even that’s being legislated against. So where does the NFL go from here? Making roughing the passer a reviewable call will achieve nothing as we saw a couple seasons ago with the pass interference rule. Refs simply don’t want to be second guessed and will ignore the change just like they did last time. Even if they didn’t, you’re making a subjective ruling reviewable and we’ve seen just how well that’s gone for the “process of a catch” in wake of the Dez Bryant play. There isn’t a simple answer to fixing this beyond better reffing and a more consistent definition on what is and what isn’t roughing the passer. For instance, in that same game, Mahomes got slung to the ground much in the same way Brady was by Garett. Only no flag was thrown. Consistency is the only measure of improvement we can hope for moving forward as nothing over the past 5 or so years should lead us to believe a rule change will actually improve things for the better.

Lions and Jags

I’m combining these two into one given the lengthy refs post despite really not wanting to dive too deeply into it. Both squads walked into their respective games with a lot to be optimistic about. The jags were playing the winless Texans while the Lions were playing a banged Pats squad. Yet the two teams would combine for a total of 6 points and lose in embarrassing fashion. To be fair to the Jags, they dominated most of the game, almost doubling the Texans in total yards. But their offence would stall time after time after time and settled for two FG’s in the first half. It would only get worse though as Lawerence would throw an inexplicable red zone INT to rookie CB standout Derek Stingley. Even still, the Jags would have a couple more chances to put up points in the 4th quarter but were unable to do so. The win would extend the Texans winning streak over the Jags to 9 straight as the AFC South continue to play the football version of scissor, paper, rock. It’s an inexplicable loss for the Jags as even just a week ago, they almost rallied to tie against the Eagles in a game they had no business being in. This is the same squad that pummelled both the Colts and Chargers in back to back weeks before the aforementioned Eagles game. Like Green Bay on this list, they’re the better team “on paper” but have been unable to produce consistent results.

Speaking of inconsistency, let’s move onto the Lions. A week ago I had this team ranked one spot above the Patriots in the power rankings. The rationale being that although their defence is abysmal, that offence has been so dynamic even with key stars missing time. That couldn’t have been further from the truth in week 5 however as they got demolished by a third string rookie QB in his first official start. Much like the Jags, Detroit would have some success moving the ball but would be hamstrung by the mistakes. First it was a red zone INT by Goff (sound familiar?) then it was a fumble that gave NE a cushy 16-0 halftime lead. But large halftime deficits aren’t unfamiliar to this Lions squad. They rallied against Seattle in the 4th to make it competitive and were getting buried by the Eagles until they weren’t. So the game still appeared to be far from over. But over it was as NE dominated the ball in the third as Goff would miss critical pass after critical pass on third and fourth downs and NE rumbled their way to an easy 29-0 shutout of the number one scoring offence in the NFL. It’s an alarming loss for head coach Dan Campbell as whispers of him being on the hot seat start to spread entering the bye week. This may not be a capable, playoff achieving squad. But to walk away with just a single victory in 5 weeks while starting a fairly difficult stretch of the schedule in November may have this Lions squad eliminated form the playoffs before we even hit January. It’s hard not to love Campbell but we’re reaching a stage where wins need to start rolling in or Detroit should start looking elsewhere.  

That’ll do it from me for another week. There’s no real excuse as to why I pumped this one out late. I just felt so incredibly unmotivated to write this week and put it off for as long as humanely possible. That’s not excuse but just the honest truth. I hope by pumping this piece out despite that, I’ll get some rhythm and consistency under my belt but I can’t promise that. For whatever reason, this one didn’t come easy but if your reading this, I hope you enjoyed it and I’ll see you next week.  

NFL Power Rankings

So a preface to this power rankings piece. The rankings are not indicative of overall record nor should they be. Whilst some teams have better records than others above them on this list, the list is attempting to factor in strength of schedule, the ease of victories and the health of the team moving forward. For instance, we’re unsure of when Tua will return for the Dolphins which results in them being ranked significantly lower than they otherwise would be. Likewise, a team like the Jags is ranked rather highly given how they’ve won and lost their games which leads me to believe they’re better than their record indicates. Power rankings aren’t predictors of future performance but it would be ignorant to not factor in current performance whilst projecting a little towards the future. This is a piece attempting to dissect how the first month of the season has gone and where it might go.

The Elite

1: Buffalo Bills

Yes the undefeated team isn’t in first place so get your outrage/ “your just a Dallas fanboy” anger out the way now because it’s only going to get more spicy from here. The Bills haven’t had a perfect season, far from it in fact. After dominating the defending SB champs in week 1 and the number 1 seed in the AFC last year in week two, things haven’t gone smoothly for the Bills since. Against the Dolphins in Week 3, they had every opportunity to close that game out and couldn’t do it despite dominating the time of possession in the second half. They even got lucky with Miami defenders seemingly dropping about 5 errant Allen INT’s. The Baltimore win isn’t incredible either given they were a play away from potentially losing that game at the end and rallied against a team who themselves blew a large lead to the Dolphins. Despite that, they’re the most proven high performing team at the moment who’s had an incredibly difficult start to the season. They’ll get healthier too as Tre’Davious White is set to come back soon, Oliver is getting healthier and they still have players like Jordan Phillips and Xavier Rhoades who will return at some point. Come week 9, they have a fairly cushy schedule and should cruise to the playoffs if they can survive the onslaught until then.

2: Philadelphia Eagles

The only unbeaten team remaining in the NFL, it’s the team every NFC East fan loves to hate, the Eagles. They’re an unusual unbeaten team they aren’t your typical fraudulent unbeaten squad that wins their first 4 or 5 games before going on a losing streak and finishing with a record of 7-10. Nor are they this uber dominant team that strikes fear in the hearts of opponents everywhere and will pummel most teams into the dirt on-route to a near perfect season. Instead, they lie somewhere in the middle. They are most certainly a great team as their defence is dominant in all facets despite not having Derek Barnett. Darius Slay looks as good as ever and the addition of James Bradbury flew under the radar in the offseason in terms of the impact he’d go on to have for this squad. In almost every significant defensive statistic, the Eagles are top 10 in. The offensive potential of this squad is what stops them from being first however. Hurts can be streaky at times. Twice out of the four games this season, he’s started with 5 straight incompletions. While he goes on to fix his accuracy issues later in games, his QB play is something that’s still something of a question mark. The Eagles have yet to play a strong defensive team. Their most impressive win is this past week against the Jags but that game was a sloppy mess where Trevor Lawerence seemingly just discovered that rain makes a football slippery. None of that is the fault of Philly but until they prove it against stronger competition, it’s hard to place them above the battle tested Bills. They’ll get few chances to play good teams as well given their extremely cushy strength of schedule. The two Dallas games and one Packers game may be the only real challenges they face all season. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles have the best record in football by seasons end, though it’s possible that will be a little deceptive.

The Contenders

3: Kansas City Chiefs

After the performance against Tampa, I suspect this one may raise some eyebrows. Yes, the Chiefs are merely contenders and not part of the elite squad. Not yet anyways as they’ve been incredibly hit and miss through the first 4 weeks despite a 3-1 record. It started off great for Mahomes and Co as they crushed the Cardinals in ways they did during their SB runs. The following week however was far less convincing as they won a game they really should have lost against the Chargers. While wins are all that matter at the end of the day, it was the type of performance that reminds you that this isn’t the Chiefs of those SB runs. Tyreek Hill’s departure is still felt on this team and Kelce is their only real legitimate threat on offence anymore. Whilst CEH and the run game does look improved in spurts, it’s not consistent enough to think that’ll it be there come playoff time. For the two impressive and dominant wins they have, the Chiefs also have an uninspired, ugly victory and one pretty abysmal loss to the Colts. The rest of the schedule isn’t dramatically difficult fortunately and a week 6 matchup against the Bills will likely answer a lot of questions we have about just how much of a threat is this Chiefs team.

4: Green Bay Packers

Well week one isn’t everything it seems. It couldn’t have started much worse for the Packers as they got blown out by the Vikings in a game they were never really competitive in. Since then however, they’ve returned to form and taken the unusual identity of a run first team whose defence has come back to life. After destroying the Bears, the Packers won a hard-fought game against Tampa despite not being able to run the ball. Rodgers is slowly forming more trust with his young receiving core and won by leaning on rookie standout Romeo Doubs. Given Tampa’s middling success, this could seen as a negative but to be able to win a close game despite your primary method of attack being taken says something to the versatility of this squad. The passing offence will only improve as the season goes on as Rodgers develops more and more chemistry and trust with his young receivers and the run game should act as a stabilising force until then. The defence is strong though there may be some cause for concerns on the defensive line given just how dominant the Pats were at running the ball despite it being their only viable method of attack. Likewise, the schedule is far from easy as they have the Bills, Lions X2, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams and Sota again. But given Rodgers and Green Bay’s history, it seems foolish to doubt they’ll stumble too much across these games and miss the playoffs. Sota will contend with them for the division title but this Packers team will only continue to get better as the season progresses.

5: Baltimore Ravens

Another instance where we’re breaking the actual record vs power rankings configuration is with the Ravens. It’s kind of unbelievable that this squad sits at a 2-2 record given they had a 21-point lead in the 4th against the Dophins and had a 17-point lead against the Bills in the 2nd. It’s certainly where the case starts and end for placing them lower in the rankings. While they get big leads against strong opponents, their inability to keep them is rather alarming given the Ravens ability to run the ball in prior seasons. But this isn’t prior seasons as Lamar had 316 yards rushing and is by far and away their leading rusher (second closest is Justice Hill with 125). So why do they have such a high ranking you ask? Well it’s simple really. They’re good enough to gain those large leads against great teams, Lamar is having an MVP type season on a contract year and that offence is only going to continue to improve as Dobbins and Gus Edwards return from injury. That WR core also has some real potential as the season goes along given the speed it possess. Duvernay and Bateman are a light version of Tyreek and Waddle while Andrews is always a persistent threat. The loss of Kyle Fuller in the secondary is concerning but their schedule gets noticeably easier after this week’s game against the Bengals. Baltimore are a flawed team, there’s no doubts about that, but if they can fix the run game, it seems likely they won’t blow the leads they’ve achieved against some great squads even if their secondary can’t stop a QB with a blindfold on.

Outside Looking In

6: Minnesota Vikings

Probably the hardest team to rank on this list, the Vikings are the pretender team I was referring to earlier in the Philly section. Although they possess a 3-1 record including a dominant win against the Packers, this team doesn’t pass the sniff test. Philly absolutely dominated them in every aspect in their one loss of the season while they were down the entire game to Detroit before rallying at the end (trust me, we’ll get to that leaky lions D later). They did get up against the Saints in the London game this past week but that was yet another game they were down in until the very end. Perhaps all this is unwarranted scepticism given I essentially gave the Ravens a pass for blowing leads while I’m criticising the Vikings for actually fighting back to gain leads. But none of their play this season passes the eye test. Their inability to incorporate Jefferson into the offence for two straight weeks is suspect (especially against the lions D), the run game isn’t as good as it’s been in previous years and Cousins isn’t even fooling people with the stat sheet for once. The record and the talent on that roster is the reason they’re placed so high as well as their comically easy schedule through the rest of the season. But like the Titans of last year, don’t be surprised if this is a pretender squad that losses quickly and easily in the playoffs.

7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A team that wandered into the season with a sky-high predicted record, the Bucs are a team that I actually think have performed to season expectation thus far. The injuries to the offensive line and WR core as well as Brady’s increasing age was always going to limit this team this season and it shows. After a couple of incredibly ugly and offensively inept wins against Dallas and the Saints, they’ve stumbled the past two weeks against the Packers and Chiefs. Funnily enough, the Packers loss is their most impressive game of the season. They were able to shut down the Packers offence and lost a razor close game. Moving forward, that’s going to be the recipe for success for Tampa as if that defence can replicate performances like that, they’ll be in the hunt in an otherwise middling NFC. Of course, KC blew that defence apart but the only offence that will likely threaten to do the same in the NFC is the Eagles. As a result, Tampa is in pretty decent shape despite not being as a good a team as they’ve been the past couple seasons. If their WR group ever gets healthy, the offence will likely progress as Julio looked revitalised in the one game he appeared in. Godwin still obviously needs more time to heal but they should be able to lean on the defence until they get healthy offensively. Finally, the schedule isn’t all too difficult for them either given the NFC South looks far from dominant. If Tampa is able to reach 10 wins, they’ll likely win the division yet again and get a playoff berth.

8: Jacksonville Jaguars

Probably the most controversial ranking on this list alongside the Vikings and Giants, the Jags are a team that people should be taking notice of despite all evidence to the contrary over the past few seasons. Through 4 games, they’ve accumulated a 2-2 record with two dominant wins, one ugly loss and one head scratching loss. In the opening week, they play the fairly abysmal Commanders and lost with Wentz just torching the defence alive. I’m willing to chalk that loss up to week one madness given everything we’ve seen since though it’s something to take note of if they end up underperforming for the rest of the season. The other loss on their record came this past week against Philly in an absolute mud bowl of a game. It’s convenient to chalk this game up as another fluke loss but it’s hard to put a ton of stock into it unless you believe Lawrence will continue to fumble the ball in the rain at a historic rate. Much like the Bears-Niners game in week one, sometimes weather conditions take over and make it difficult to ascribe any particular meaning out of a game that will likely not have it’s conditions replicated throughout the season. In the two wins they’ve had, they absolutely pummelled the hapless colts as the pass rush sacked Matt Ryan 5 times whilst offensively they played a pretty balanced attack. James Robinson is back and although he wasn’t efficient on the ground that game, his return has been critical for the offence. Likewise, the addition of Christian Kirk has given Lawrence his first reliable WR1 and while he came at a premium, you can’t deny the impact he’s had across 4 games, averaging 81.8 YPG. The Chargers victory was even more lopsided. While it was against a wounded Herbert and Co, the balanced offence had the Chargers in all sorts and laid out the path for success moving forward for the Jags. Gone are the days of passing 56 times a game under Urban Meyer. Perhaps the only thing holding this team back is the surprisingly tough schedule as their non division games are rather difficult. Still, the AFC South appears to be in it’s usual state of disarray and the Titans are no longer the dominant team they were last year. It may not be the prettiest road to a division title but the Jags appear to be a young upstart team on the rise.

9: Los Angeles Chargers

Everyone’s pre-season darling, the Chargers have not at all had the start anyone was expecting. Entering the season, it would be fair to say the bar was set at being a top 5 or 6 team by this point of the season. As it stands, they’re 2-2 and there isn’t a ton of optimism moving forward. Injuries are killing this squad as Bosa landed on IR this week while Herbert will likely battle with his ribs the rest of the season. Other injuries include the always banged up Keenan Allen, solid WR 3/4 Jalen Guyon on IR as is starting RT Rashawn Slater. That greatly limits the Chargers moving forward with the one saving grace being a pretty comfortable schedule for the rest of the season and it killed them in week 3 against the Jaguars. The two wins they possess are far from pretty as they beat what appeared to be a solid Vegas team at the time who may also not be who they thought we were while beating the winless Texans in last week. Of course the KC loss was unfortunate given they looked set to win that game in the second half but did everything in their power to hand the game over in what must have given Chargers flashbacks to years past.  Looking at SB aspirations is equally as tough. It’s unlikely Herbert’s ribs will heal properly by seasons end and his offensive line without Slater has been leaky at times. They can’t lean on the run game either as it was non existent until they played the Texans. All is not lost for them as they still have an incredibly talented roster even with the crop of injuries but it does limit the potential of a team looking to make a SB this season.

10: Miami Dolphins

Speaking of teams with SB aspirations that’s been halted due to injury, it’s a squad that everyone was incredibly sceptical of entering the season. All of the scepticism was squarely on Tua’s shoulders as Miami built themselves a stacked squad in the offseason. Additions to the team include Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mosert, Chase Edmonds, Connor Williams and Melvin Ingram among others. Through 3 weeks, those additions looked to be game changers as they blew past the Patriots in week one, had an incredible rally against the Ravens in week 2, clung desperately to a lead against the Bills in week 3 before losing the Bengals this past week. It’s worth noting before moving onto Tua that the defence is worrisome as they just bleed 414 yards per game, good for 28th in the league. Of course, we have to discuss Tua and his injury. Regardless of what truly happened against the Bills the week before, there’s no denying the terrifying sight of him being in the fencing response against the Bengals this past week. Tua’s already been ruled out for week 5 and I hope for his sake, it’s a lengthier rest than that. That’s not the only injury Miami is dealing with either as both starting corners are banged up with no definitive answer as to their status. But all playoff and SB aspirations boil down to if and when Tua will be back. If he returns this season, they’re a contending team as while their wins haven’t exactly been convincing, it's hard to ignore the quality of opposition they’ve beaten and the roster they possess. While some scepticism remains about Tua’s ability at QB, it’s hard to ignore just how well he’s played prior to the concussions. Looking ahead, the schedule gets much easier for them until December where Tua may return. If Bridgewater is able to submit some good backup QB performances, there’s no reason to think Miami won’t be in the playoff hunt and perhaps challenge division rivals the Bills come playoff time if they’re able to somehow fix that leaky defence.

11: Dallas Cowboys

We arrive to the team I support. If you had asked me week one where I’d rank Dallas, I’d have likely given a wildly overreactive answer and said bottom 10, maybe even bottom 5 given the utter stinker Dallas had against Tampa even with Dak at QB for most of the game. Since then however, things have improved significantly. A combination of Lawerence, Parsons and Armstrong has created a terrifying pass rush combination alongside new addition Donte Fowler. Likewise, the secondary has seen improvement with Trevon Diggs having an improved year in coverage while Donovan Wilson might be the answer at safety that the Cowboys have been looking for all these years. They aren’t a team without injuries however. Tyron Smith is likely done for the season, Jourdan Lewis is banged up as is Jayron Kearse. James Washington is TBD on his return and Prescott has already been ruled out ahead of week five. But positives exist for Dallas this season despite those injuries. Rookie Tyler Smith has done an outstanding job at LT filling in for Smith while Cooper Rush has done an admirable job filling in for Prescott at QB. Since losing to the Bucs, Dallas have won ugly, using that great pass rush to hold the Bengals to just 17 points, the Giants to 16 and the Commanders to 10. Cooper Rush meanwhile has done just enough for the offence to move the chains and score… Well mostly FG’s but there’s the occasional TD tossed in there too. The QB controversy idea is totally overstated as Rush’s best game hasn’t even matched Prescott’s career average but he’s performed well enough for a backup QB behind a great defence. Even the coaching has improved as Kellen Moore has put Lamb back into his natural role as a hybrid slot and X receiver while Noah Brown filled in for Gallup as a prototypical X. The rushing attack still leaves something to be desired. I’m not sure we’ll ever see Zeke have a run longer than 30 yards ever again and Pollard can’t block a paper towel but between the two them, a competent rushing offence has formed. Moving ahead, the schedule gets rather dicey in October and I suspect Cooper Rush’s perfect starting record is going to come to a grinding halt soon enough. But if Prescott is able to return by week 7 or 8, they’re in a good enough position to attempt a wildcard berth as it’s unlikely they’ll win the division over Philly this season. The ceiling is still capped on this team while Mccarthy is the head coach but all hope is not lost in Dallas for this season it seems.

The Super Bowl contending teams of last year

*I was initially going to lump the Bengals, 49ers and Rams into the outside looking category. You could certainly argue they belong in that spot. This category itself isn’t even necessarily a downgrade. These three teams were just too hard to separate from each other and all seem so interchangeable in the rankings that a separate category had to be made.

12: Cincinnati Bengals

First off the “who the hell knows” rack is the SB losers of last season. Cincy seemed so poised for a leap this year given the fresh new additions made in the offseason that includes La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karris to bolster the offensive line. Only instead of helping burrow stay on his feet, they’ve carved a clean path to the ground as Burrow has accumulated 16 sacks across 4 games which includes a one sack game against Miami. It all started against Pittsburgh as despite turning the ball over 5 times, Cincy somehow only lost in OT. Burrow was sacked 7 times, Mixon averaged 3 YPC across 27 rushes and the picture was painted as to how the Bengals season may turn out. It certainly seemed that way the next week against Dallas as Burrow was sacked 6 more times while the run game stayed as inefficient as ever. Fortunately they played a Jets team the following week that’s… well the Jets as the notched their first win. Likewise in the game against Miami, Tua went down and cincy abused that banged up secondary on route to their second win. A 2-2 record with at least one win against a good team shouldn’t necessarily be that alarming but it is given what we’ve seen across those four games. The Oline is still horrific even if the Sacks didn’t come against lesser defensive lines. Mixon is averaging an atrocious 2.7 YPC across 82 carries while Burrow’s numbers have been salvaged over the past two weeks to lesser defences. This may all come across as harsh but the expectations for this team couldn’t have been to be 2-2 with a loss against two backup level QB’s and two “fine” wins against an aging Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater. So with all that said, why rank them so high? Most of that stems from potential. This roster is theoretically improved, they still posses the best trio of WR’s in the league and the defence has shown to be remarkably stout against the aforementioned backup QB play of their opponents. The month of October should prove to be a good test for exactly where this squad is at as they play the Ravens, Saints and Falcons. Should they emerge 2-1 or 3-0 from that stretch, chatter will begin again about a potential playoff run and AFC rematch with the Chiefs in the playoffs.

13: San Francisco 49ers

The Rams and Niners are arguably practically inseparable given the quality of wins and losses across the four weeks but the Niners get the nod here after the win against the Rams on MNF. It couldn’t have been a worse start to the season for the Niners as they were forced to play a game in a monsoon against the Bears. That game didn’t go their way but it’s hard to hold a game played in such difficult conditions against them even though they blew a game they largely controlled until the 4th quarter. The following week however… yikes. Trey Lance sadly went out with an ankle injury in the first quarter that sees him out for the year and Garrapolo did an okay job filling in although he wasn’t exactly replicating the form that lead this team to the NFC title game last year. To Jimmy GQ’s credit, they blew Seattle away but you couldn’t help but walk away from that game questioning the future of this Niners team. There’s a reason Shannahan was ready to move on to Trey Lance as Jimmy is a QB good enough to win a SB if everything just so happens to break right. That was reflected in the rather ugly loss to Seattle where the Niners converted just one first down out of 10 attempts and Garrapolo fumbled the ball after getting sacked on the final drive of the game. That leads us to this week and the future of the team. It wasn’t an impressive performance at QB but Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson made two great plays while the Niners played steady, mistake free football and won comfortably against their division rivals the Rams. More importantly, the stout defence continues to shut opposing offences down as they haven’t let a single team score 20 points or more this season. This despite a stack of injuries to the defence as the Niners rank in the top 3 of almost every major statistical category. But defence wasn’t the reason they lost in the NFC title game last year (although conceding 13 points in the 4th certainly didn’t help). It was the offence’s inability to score when needed that has held this team back from an elusive SB victory. That doesn’t appear to have changed currently as they rank 27th in points scored. Perhaps the defence will carry this team again and Jimmy will make just the right amount of necessary plays this time to take them to the promised land but it would be foolish not to be sceptical of that. Fortunately, their schedule doesn’t appear to be exceedingly difficult looking ahead and they’re in the driver’s seat for winning the division and obtaining a playoff berth.  But like every other ranked team outside the top 5, it appears that there’s a ceiling on this squad that may not be able to be overcome.

14: Los Angeles Rams

Well, the good news for the Rams is that Cooper Kupp still appears to be the best offensive skill player in football. The bad news for the Rams is everything else. After an embarrassing blowout loss to the Bills in week one, the Rams survived a late comeback scare by the Falcons to hang on and go 1-1. Not an impressive win but the Falcons have proven to be far feistier than anyone expected and that win may age better than most expect as the season wears on. They followed that up with a cruisy win over the always shaky Cardinals. Again, it wasn’t an impressive win but when you force an opposing QB to throw 58 times and not notch a single TD, it’s safe to say you’ve done something right. The cause for concern with this Rams team comes in it’s two losses. Against the Bills, Stafford was sacked 7 times. Against the Niners, the exact same thing occurred as he was sacked 7 times. In both losses, the Rams offensive line showed it’s incapable of holding up against anything close to a premier pass rush as that line has collapsed with the departure of Andrew Whitworth. While in the two wins this season, Stafford has only been sacked one time a piece. That’s the be all and end all for this team moving forward. If they’re incapable of blocking for Stafford, this team has no chance to become repeat SB champions. Of course, there’s other things influencing this including injuries to the offensive line. Another problem is a lack of receiving talent outside of Kupp. Van Jefferson is on IR and replacing OBJ with Allen Robinson has gone disastrously. As it stands, Kupp is the only offensive weapon in their arsenal as he’s set to repeat and best his triple crown effort from last season. With a porous offensive line to go along with a forgettable rushing attack however, it won’t matter how good Kupp is this year. Their schedule is a mixed bag moving forward and a game against the Chiefs in week 12 will likely be the true test of where this team stands in an attempt for a playoff bid.

        If things break right, a playoff appearance may emerge                                                 

15: Seattle Seahawks

Who the hell needs Russell Wilson it seems. After trading away their franchise QB for a draft pick haul, the Hawks are 2-2 and find themselves with a pretty good offence behind the play of Geno Smith. Never thought that sentence would ever be uttered but welcome to the 2022 NFL season. The schedule makers in week one in their infinite wisdom, saw fit to have Wilson play his old team in what was meant to be the beginning of a new era. And a new era it was, just not for Wilson as Geno Smith played picture perfect cautionary football, letting Denver bury themselves in their own mistakes while escaping with a win in a game they possessed the lead throughout. Week two wouldn’t be so kind as we saw the limitations of this team.  The top tier niners defence demolished Seattle’s run game and dared Geno to throw which he was unable to do, notching 197 yards off 30 pass attempts. Beyond the lack of offensive firepower this game, the real cause for concern coming out was the inability of the defence to get stops. This Niners squad is far from elite on offence, practising their own form of patience whilst relying on the defence. Despite that, the Niners had the ball for 17 more minutes and scored the most points they have all season long thanks to a weak defensive line. In the following game against Atlanta, the defensive line would once again fail to show up as the Falcons ran all over them and once again, Seattle lost the time of possession battle. This time it was to the tune of 12 minutes. So, what do you do when you’ve been dominated in the time of possession battle two straight weeks? You play the Lions of course in what has to be the wildest game of the season to this point. With a final score of 48-45, it’s hard to know where to even start with this game. Both these teams possess pretty terrible defences at this point so let’s focus on the offence. Rashad Penny had his breakout game, exploding for 151 yards at a hilarious 8.9 YPC and 2 scores. While Geno would continue to keep his sky high completion percentage, throwing for 320 yards at a 23/30 clip. All numbers losing meaning in a game that features over 1000 yards of total offence but Seattle did manage to force the only two punts of the game and won the time of possession to boot. Projecting the season moving forward, it’s likely that Seattle will prevail against teams with sub-par defences as Geno nickel and dimes his way whilst playing mistake free football. When they play competent offences however, it seems likely that the defence will get eviscerated and the truth behind Geno’s ludicrous stat sheet will be revealed. Luckily for Seattle, they don’t play many of those teams the rest of the season and in a division where everyone is 2-2, a division title and subsequent playoff berth is well and truly up for grabs.

16: Atlanta Falcons

In a tier full of teams that are kind of unbelievable for one reason or another, the Falcons are perhaps the team that stands out the most in this tier. A fun as hell team playing a style no one else would even really consider, Atlanta have managed to carve out a 2-2 record with every single game being decided by four points or less. The season started out in classic fashion for Atlanta, blowing a 16 point lead in the fourth quarter to a team that’s looked rather inept on offence through four weeks. It’s safe to chalk this game up to a bit of mistaken identity however as Mariotta threw 33 times and notched a prolific 0 TD’s and 0 Int’s while running for 72 yards and a score. Those rushing numbers are important as coach Arthur Smith started to piece together the idea that this offence should resemble a run first offence and only shift towards passing in times of desperation. Unforutantely for the Falcons, it would take them another week to fully realise this vision as they lost to the rams despite outscoring them 17-3 in the 4th. A Ramsey INT would seal the victory in that one as Mariotta continued to prove why there was never a QB controversy in his time in Vegas. Things would turn around for the Falcons though as they played the surprisingly competent Seahawks and won a tight game off the back of Cordalle Patterson rushing for 141 yards at 8.3 YPC. Mariotta would go on to throw 20 times for 229 yards but the discovery of the game was clear. Run the ball, dominate time of possession and only throw when necessary. Arthur smith carried that lesson well into week 4’s win over the browns overcoming a poor Mariotta performance who completed only 7 of 19 passes for 139 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 INT. Despite Patterson being banged up, the Falcons would rush for 202 yards to bring their record to .500. It’s clear that there’s a ceiling for this team. Defensively, they rank in the bottom 10 of every category while Mariotta has more INT’s on the year than TD’s. Still, it’s hard to discount the rushing attack of this squad. No other team in the league has a more versatile running back core and despite ranking 29th in total passing yards, this team is 8th in points scored on the year. Now it’s highly unlikely this is a recipe for long term, sustainable success but if they’re able to stay within one score of most games, you tend to get a few things to bounce your way. Losing Patterson to IR is a huge blow for the season however both Algier and Huntley handled his absence quite well last week. In a division that lacks a true front runner, Atlanta stands a chance at creeping into the playoffs with their schedule only being moderately difficult the rest of the way.

17: Tennessee Titans

Remember The Titans of last year? Weren’t those the days, back when they went 12-5 on route to a one seed in the AFC. Well, those days are long gone as this year’s squad is 2-2 through four weeks with their only saving grace being the division the always ordinary to bad AFC South. The season started about as nightmarishly as possible for Tennessee, losing to the giants in week one despite having the lead for all but the final minute of the game. It was an ugly affair from both squads though it had to be especially traumatic for Titans fans as despite sacking Daniel Jones 5 times, they’d still go on to lose the game. This gave flashbacks to last year’s AFC divisional round game against the Bengals where they lost despite sacking Burrow 9 times. It didn’t get any better the following week either as they got blown out 41-7 against the Bills with both starting QB’s being taken out before the end of the third quarter. Tanehill was especially awful that game, going for just 117 yards, 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Fortunately for Tennessee they’d bounce back against the (at the time) winless Vegas Raiders and possess the lead throughout the whole game. Of course it did come with a scare as a failed 2pt conversion stopped that game from going into OT in a game that neither team played particularly well. Speaking of not playing well, who needs to play well at QB when you have a Derrick Henry. Despite Tanehill throwing for just 137 yards, Tennessee would go on to once again control the lead from start to finish off the back of Henry and bring their record to 2-2 against their division rival Colts. Like many other teams on this tier, it’s been an ugly start to the year and yet you can’t complain about the results. Whether the Titans are good or not, they possess a 500 record, tying the Jags within the division. Unlike other teams on this list however, the cause for concern is far, far more clear. Rookie WR Treylon Burks is banged up, LT Taylor Lewan is on IR as is Harold Landry. Also unlike the other teams in this tier, the Titans play a first place schedule that becomes alarmingly difficult once November rolls around. Perhaps the team finds it’s identity between now and then but the poor play of Tanehill as well as the injuries leaves a lot to be desired and if the Jags wind up being a legitimate up and coming team, it may prove difficult to secure a wild card spot.

18: Arizona Cardinals

The team that I dreaded writing about finally arrives here in the 18 spot. Arizona…. are not what they’re record indicates. Were not to drive me mad about writing so little, I’d leave it there. Instead, let’s dive into the mouth of mediocrity. In week one, Kliff Kingsbury and Co got fed to the… well not the Lions. The Chiefs. Where they got pummelled into oblivion and faced a starting 4th quarter score-line of 37-7. Arizona would go on to notch a couple garbage time scores and pretty the final score a little but suffice to say, week one showed it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Cardinals this season. Muarry attempted 34 passes for 193 yards as the offence looked incapable of moving the ball without the presence of Deandre Hopkins. Week two didn’t appear to be any better initially as they faced a 23-7 deficit with just 12 minutes left to go in the game. But Vegas would blow that game in a comically absurd fashion as Zona scored to bring it to 8 and a chance to tie the game on the final possession. Kyler would pull off the miraculous, scoring a TD as time expired before getting the 2pt conversion on a play that seemingly lasted an eternity. Arizona would punt on it’s first possession of OT but a fumble 6 by a concussed Renfrow would finish off the comeback and get the Cardinals it’s first win. Sanity would return the following week as the Cardinals lost to their division rival and arch nemesis Rams in a game that showed a lack of polish from both teams. Kyler would attempt 58 passes, completing 37 of them for 314 yards but had neither a TD nor an INT with the final score finishing up at 20-12. Lastly, the Cards finally grabbed their first convincing win of the season over the hapless Panthers. All of this is to say, Arizona is a bizarre team as they tend to dominate time of possession but are unable to do anything with it most of the time, ranking just 14th in points scored this season. Muarry has played acceptable football but hasn’t achieved a level of play that resembles the contract extension he earned this offseason. If one were to look for optimism for the rest of the season, it would be that they’ve sustained few injuries to key players thus far (although to Kyler’s credit, he’s been without Rondale Moore and Hopkins throughout the season so far). The schedule isn’t as forgiving however as they’ll play some tough teams the rest of the season, starting this week with the Eagles. Perhaps once Hopkins is back, this team will right the ship but we’ve seen little so far to indicate that this team will overcome a difficult schedule and win out in a division they haven’t won since 2015.

19: Cleveland Browns

The bad news Browns are… still pretty bad. It couldn’t have started worse any worse for them however as during the offseason as their shiny new QB was suspended for 11 games, fined 5 million dollars and looked pretty average/bad in the few preseason outings we saw. This coming from a guy who they traded an absolute haul for. Just to refresh your memory, this is what the Browns gave up: A 2022 first-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, 2024 fourth-round pick and in return got Watson and a 6th round pick. It doesn’t end there either as they signed to him a whopping 5 year, $230,000,000 deal, including a $44,965,000 signing bonus with all $230,000,000 guaranteed. In his absence though, the Browns have actually performed rather well, going 2-2 with Jacoby Brissett under centre. Now admittedly, they’re schedule has been rather easy as they haven’t played a single team that currently holds a winning record. In week one, they beat a fairly abysmal Panthers team by a late second 58 yard FG and almost blew that game despite possessing a 20-7 lead entering the 4th quarter. It was the only game in which Baker Mayfield has thrown for over 200 yards in as well just to add insult to injury. It didn’t get much better in week two as they fell to the Jets despite possessing a 13 point lead with just 1:55 to go left in the game. Once again, that Browns defence let another washed up QB have a career resurgent day on them with Flacco going for 4 TD’s and over 300 yards. Fortunately for the Browns, Mitch Trubisky was their week 3 opponent as the Browns finally played a complete game on both sides of the ball. That brings us to last week where despite dominating the time of possession (35 minutes to 24), they couldn’t overcome the absurd triple option offence of the Falcons and lost a 3 point game. Through four games, the Browns haven’t faced a single competent QB and yet they routinely find themselves sweating out games against lower tier competition. While this is likely a result of their own poor QB play, it doesn’t bode well if Watson resembles anything like his preseason self. To be fair to Cleveland, the defence is extremely banged up as Greedy Williams and Chase Winovich are both on IR while Clowney and Garett are both battling injuries. Likewise, the run game for the Browns has been excellent with Nick Chubb having a career year as he’s 2nd in the league in rushing yards so far. So there is some cause for optimism as the season progresses for the Browns but they’ll need to improve long before Watson comes back as their schedule gets brutally difficult throughout the rest of the season. It’s likely that the Browns view this year as a way to test the waters, get Watson comfortable with playing again and the following year will be the playoff and SB push. But they don’t have the draft picks nor the cap space to make substantial wholesale changes to this squad. If this team underperforms once Watson returns, there has to be real cause for concern moving forward in a division that’s been consistently strong year to year.

I mean….. Maybe? But really?

20: New England Patriots

All hail the Bailey Zappe reign of dominance. With the recent announcement that Hoyer is heading to IR, Rookie Zappe is now the starting QB for a franchise that has won 11 conference championships since 2001. Through four weeks, the Patriots are last in the AFC East, holding a 1-3 record through four weeks. To be clear, this isn’t a knock on the Pats. They’ve played one of the hardest schedules so far and were competitive in every game barring the first. But it’s still jarring to see Bellicheck coach a team that isn’t currently above 500 a month into the season. Week one featured their largest loss of the season and the only game they weren’t really competitive in. Going against a Dolphins squad that’s always given them fits, the Pats defence held up remarkably well against what’s proven to be a high powered offence. A fumble 6 by Mac Jones would give the Dolphins an early 10-0 lead before an incredible play by Waddle would force NE into a17-0 half time deficit. From there, the rest of the game was academic as the Patriots defence would stay strong but the offence would be unable to play mistake free football, committing 3 total turnovers that resulted in a 20-7 loss by the final whistle. It would get a lot uglier the following week against the Steelers with a 17-14 final score. Opposing QB mitch trubistky would turn 33 pass attempts into just 168 yards. Mac Jones wouldn’t play all that much better but combined with the rushing attack of Harris, it was enough to hold onto a 17-6 lead entering the 4th.

Unfortunately, you can’t always play Mitch Trubisky and the Patriots had to play MVP candidate Lamar Jackson. Jackson, who’s having a career year, would escape constant pressure from the Patriots and although he was sacked 4 times, churned out an impressive performance. NE was able to abuse the banged up secondary of the Ravens, with Jones throwing for over 300 yards but did so while throwing 3 crippling INT’s. It speaks to the Patriots defence that they were only down 1 at half time and even took the lead to open the third quarter. But uncharastic mistakes by a Bellicheck coached team sealed this one despite a late attempt at a rally. With Jones ruled out to a back injury, there was little hope for NE heading into Lambau field. Especially once Hoyer got ruled out early with a concussion, ushering in the Bailey Zappe era. A Rodgers pick 6 however would assist the Pats into a surprising 10-7 halftime lead. From there, an offensive battle appeared. Three long drives in the third quarter would see the game tied 17-17 entering the 4th before both teams seemingly lost interest in winning the game in regulation. That would extend into the first two possessions of OT although it was NE who made the critical mistake. Facing a 4th and 5 at GB’s 46, they opted to punt instead of going for it and potentially winning the game off a FG should they have converted. Instead, Rodgers got the ball and did what he does best, driving the field and scoring the game winning FG. All of this is to say that despite a 1-3 record, the Patriots are still a legitimately decent team that’s hamstrung by it’s offence. Despite averaging almost 130 yards per game on the ground, NE only averaged 18.5 points per game. Defensively, the numbers indicate a pretty poor Bellicheck led defence however given the quality of opposition they’ve faced, you can’t take the numbers at face value. While they play a high powered offence this week in Detroit, the rest of the season fairs far better and it seems likely that come seasons end, the Pats will come within a game or two of 500. The bigger issue for NE is that the AFC East is rather good for the first time in a long time. They must contend with two potential SB teams now and must do so without a clear cut answer at QB in the long term. Even if Bailey Zappe performs admirably this season in Mac’s stead, it’s unlikely he’ll be the answer. In the short term, they’ve been battered with injuries and need help at OT and WR despite the resources dedicated to those positions. Its going to be a hard year for NE but through four weeks, the record isn’t reflective of the overall team quality.

21: Detroit Lions

The team I wished I could’ve put higher on this list, it’s the most entertaining team in football that has the first ranked offence and the last ranked defence. Through four weeks, the Lions sit at 1-3 while scoring 35 points per game and letting in 35.3 points per game. They haven’t lost by more than 4 points all season and kicked off the year by losing a 3-point game to Philly. To put this Lions offence into the correct perspective, Philly has allowed 36 points combined in it’s past 3 games. In week one alone, Detroit put up 35 points and were a 4th and one stop away from potentially coming back from a 17-point 4th quarter deficit. That’s been the story of Detroit this season as the following week, they’d drop 36 on the Commanders but concede 27 to a pretty lacklustre offence. Against their week 3 opponents in the Vikings, Detroit would stumble with some suspect play calling (as well as some rubbish referee calls) and “only” score 24 points in a game they controlled throughout most of the 2nd half. But the Detroit defence would ignore the existence of Vikings WR KJ Osbourne, conceding two massive plays in 25 seconds and giving up the lead (and the win) with just 45 seconds to go in the game. The final game of this month-long stretch was the absurdly entertaining game against Seattle that’s already been covered in detail in the Seattle section so I won’t touch on it too much here. Needless to say, it’s hard to win games if your defence is conceding 48 points. Detroit’s defence ranges from 30th to 32nd in every major statistical category whilst it’s offence is 5th in passing yards, 6th in rushing, first in points and 18th in third down conversions (yikes). This has led to Goff having a career resurgence, throwing for 1126 yards, 11 TD’s to 3 INT’s although it’s only at a 60.9% clip. To be clear, none of the statistics I’ve thrown at you will likely continue. Although the defence could continue to be historically bad, it’s far more likely they come down to something a bit more reasonable as the season wears on. Likewise for the offence as although they’ll play a few more terrible defences (especially in the ground game), everything we’ve seen from Goff to this point indicates he’s more turnover prone than he’s shown thus far and teams will find ways to pressure Goff and force turnovers. But if Swift can return healthy, they do have a schedule where it’s feasible that they eek out a winning record and maybe, just maybe, grab themselves a playoff spot should GB or the Vikings stumble.

22: New York Giants

I know what your going to say. “You’ve got two 1-3 teams ahead of a 3-1 team, how on earth can you call this a power ranking”. That’s a perfectly legitimate critique as at the end of day, you are what your record is. Buuuut that’s not totally correct as their quality of wins is rather ugly and when faced with half decent competition, they weren’t able to do much. But hey, they started off the season with a win against the former AFC one seed so how bad can they be? Well, they were down the entirety of that game until there was a minute left and were still one missed 47 yard FG away from losing that game. Jones was sacked 5 times against a pedestrian Titans pass rush while Saquon Barkley was the one saving grace for that squad. None of this is to dismiss Danny Dimes efforts by the way. While the 17 of 21 completions is a bit misleading, the Giants offensive line somehow appears to be even worse this season and it’s a credit to him that he performed as well as he did. NY’s second victory wasn’t much prettier as it was all tied with the lowly Panthers entering the 4th. The Giants would seal that one up with a 7-minute drive and a FG but a 19-16 victory in a game that was razor close throughout is far from inspiring from a supposedly good team. Of course, when they finally did face a competent team in the Cowboys, it… well, it was still an ugly affair. It’s truly a credit to Jones’s ability that the game was even remotely competitive as Dallas pressured him on seemingly every drop back and would sack him 5 times in one half. But entering the 4th quarter, Jones had avoided taking any more sacks and the game was tied. That’s where the good news would end though as Dallas would finally break through and gain a 10-point lead. Jones did have a chance to tie but would throw a remarkable ball to… Trevon Diggs that would seal the lone loss for the Giants this year.

We then finally arrive to this past week against the Bears and a significant reason as to why the Giants sit so low on this list despite winning the game and having a winning record. As per the course, it was an ugly game marked by mostly FG’s instead of TD’s as NY grinded away a 20-12 victory. The victory itself, came how you’d expect. Fields looked inept on offence, the Bears run game did fine but Barkely would go on to destroy that defence in a way few RB’s can. It was a victory that came at the cost of both Daniel Jones as well as Tyrod Taylor’s health as both of them would bow out as a result of injuries leaving Barkley of all people, the healthy carrier of this entire offence moving forward. Before you start, I’m aware Danny Dimes is suiting up this week but with limited mobility, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be effective in future games as the offensive line looks god awful. The next three games aren’t QB friendly either and they’re in a division featuring two teams far better poised to win the division than themselves. If there’s any constellation prize in this season for the Giants, it’s that Barkley finally looks 100% and they possess at least one start offensive lineman in Andrew Thomas at LT. You may be what your record is but by seasons end, it seems far more likely that the Giants record is going to be a lot worse than a 3-1 record.

23: Las Vegas Raiders

The duality of man and the duality of football. In week one, this Vegas team looked really good in spite of a loss against a Chargers team we all thought was going places. They looked so good that I wrote this about the game:

“The Raiders did give the chargers all they can handle though despite the critical mistakes thanks to a terrific run stuffing defence that never allowed the Chargers to produce a balanced offensive attack. All of this amounts to two strong teams in a loaded division.”

That’s pretty high praise for a team that never had a lead in the game and faced a 17-3 halftime deficit. It spoke more to the quality of both teams that the Chargers won that game while Vegas battled to stay in it. But things aren’t built to last and a week later, this is what I wrote of that same Vegas squad

“Now a week later while the mistakes are still rectifiable, they do appear to be a bit more systemic. Up 20-0 at half-time, the game appeared all but over as the raiders chewed the clock on the opening drive before scoring on of their following possessions. With 12:31 left to go in the game, Vegas had a 16-point lead and the ball. It wouldn’t last however as Vegas looked inept on offence whilst Muarry played some remarkably impressive improvisational football and tied the game on the final play, after having an absolute age on game tying 2-point conversion. Vegas still had a chance to win as the Cardinals punted it away on the first possession of OT. Once again, the Raiders blew this opportunity after Renfrow fumbled it not once, but twice and Arizona returned it for a score and the victory. Derek Carr would go on to have a total of 31 passing yards in the 2nd half and OT period (with a 47-yard pass interference penalty tossed in) while Devante Adams turned in 7 targets for 2 catches and 12 yards. So much of this is utterly inexplicable and while Carr played mistake free football, he did the one thing he’s always been criticised for in that he failed to produce when his team just one final score.”

Yeesh. It only got worse the following week as the Titans ran off to a 24-10 halftime lead and Carr was unable to nail the 2pt conversion at the end to tie the game. Carr wouldn’t play terribly in that game and you could certainly argue that his defence deserves the lions share of the blame for that loss. But Vegas had two other drives in the 4th quarter that could have drawn the game closer and they only walked away with 3 points as Carr thew a red zone INT on the other possession. They’d finally go on to beat a struggling Denver squad in week 4 and did so rather soundly but if they got credit for their performance despite the loss in week one, then they don’t deserve much credit in a win against a Denver team that’s floundering. While Devante Adams had himself a day, Carr still played some rather uninspired football in this one and it was the excellent running of Josh Jacobs that fuelled the offensive output for their first victory of the season. Vegas stands as a middling team in just about every category. The defence is slightly below average whilst the offence is slightly above it. None of that inspires confidence in a division that features the Chargers and Chiefs whilst at the bottom of the division standings. Given the nature of that division, they don’t possess an easy schedule either and although they haven’t dealt with many major injuries yet, this team doesn’t seem poised to pull out a wildcard appearance in a season that started with so much optimism.  

24: New Orleans Saints

There’s something about the NFC and perplexing teams. Were there a TBD category in these rankings, the Saints would be firmly placed in it as the recent news of Winston being out and Dalton being in may actually prove to be a benefit for a squad struggling desperately on offence. It all started fine however as the Saints rallied late in the 4th to win a game that only the Falcons are capable of blowing. Kamara got banged up early in that one but despite that, the passing game looked solid as Jarvis Landry appeared to be a great addition and Michael Thomas finally returned and proved to be what the Saints have been missing these past two years, grabbing himself a couple TD’s. The lack of a run game should have set off more alarm bells though as the Saints lost an absolute stinker to Tampa in a game that lacked TD’s until the 4th quarter. Jameis got sacked 6 times and threw 3 INT’s in that game, ironically showing why Tampa moved on from him in the first place. History would repeat itself the following week as Winston would throw a couple more INT’s and lose a game they were never really in to the god awful Panthers.

And then there was the London game. Where every player hates playing and madness always ensues. Madness did indeed occur as the loss of Jameis would prove to be instrumental in… no well, the Saints still lost this one but it was close throughout and the Dalton rallied the team to take the lead in the fourth and again, tie it in the fourth. A quadruple doink was all that stopped the Saints from getting their second win and going 2-2. Despite the record (and the terrible loss to Carolina), the Saints aren’t as bad as they appear. Not with Dalton at the helm anyways. If Kamara returns healthy, there’s a path to victory for this team if they’re able to play mistake free football. Defensively, this squad is solid but the mistakes have forced them to defend in short fields. While the offence finally has some weapons again with the addition of Olave. Unfortunately for the Saints, Landry, Kamara and Thomas have all been banged up this season, limiting the offensive output alongside Winston’s turnover proclivities. Likewise, the schedule is rather tough for the Saints and losing games to Carolina and Minnisota the past two weeks may end up crippling their playoff chances in a tight NFC South race. But the addition of Dalton in at QB may be the change this team needs moving forward in order to have a chance at the playoffs.

There’s always next year

The rest of these teams I’m going to keep short and sweet as until proven otherwise, these teams are looking for bright spots this year while hoping for more next season.

25: New York Jets

Again, I get it. A team is 500 a month into the season and they’re being relegated into the next year category does seem a little absurd. But let’s be real. The Jets aren’t about contending for this year. It’s about seeing if Zach Wilson is the future at QB, if the rookies develop and if the Offensive line can hold despite Becton and Fant out on IR. So far, we haven’t seen much of Wilson due to injury while Breece Hall and Garett Wilson both appear to be great weapons for Wilson to utilise. A Flacco revival was a fun story for a couple weeks but will be forgotten about come seasons end. Wilson is finally back though so we’re finally about to get some answers as to the future of this team in what’s bound to be a sub 500 season despite the solid start.

26: Indianapolis Colts

Another year, another aging veteran QB and another down season for Colts fans. After banishing Carson Wentz to Commie hell, Indy has tried to hold on to… SB aspirations I guess, via another veteran QB only it hasn’t worked. It all started dreadfully as they drew against the Texans in a game where they were down 20-3 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Despite that, Indy would finally discover that you need to move the ball football forwards in order to reach the opposing end zone and score 17 points while controlling the ball for total 10 minutes in the quarter as the game went to OT. It’s here where the game went from comical to absurd as Rodrigo Blakenship would miss a game winning 42 yards FG before the Texans would punt on 4th and 3 from Indy’s 49 yard line, ensuring we got our first tie of the season in week one. Sadly enough for Colts fan, this would turn out to be the most impressive offensive display by them all season as Ryan only took a couple sacks while throwing for 352 yards, Jacob Taylor would rush for 161 yards at 5.2 YPC and Pittman would go for 121 yards and a score. All of this is to say that everything that should’ve made this squad competent entering the season did actually show up. But 4 Ryan fumbles (one lost) gave an early indication of the mistake ridden football that would follow over the next three weeks. In week two, they got shut out by the Jags 24-0 where Ryan got sacked 5 times, fumbled it once more and failed to hit 200 yards off 30 pass attempts. Week 3 had the most bizarre result of the season, as they beat the Chiefs 20-17 despite yet another 5 sacks of Ryan and two more fumbles (one lost). This game defies all logic and reason as on two potential game winning drives, KC would miss a FG before Mahomes threw and errant and dumb INT to give Indy it’s only win through four weeks. Reality and reason returned in week four as Ryan committed even more fumbles (two with one lost) and the Titans escaped with a 24-17 victory, keeping the hapless Colts scoreless in the 4th quarter despite it being just a one score game. Fortunately for Indy fans hoping for a high draft pick and an eventual successor for Luck at QB, their team has been devastated with injuries and the division apart from the winless Texans, actually appears to be competent. This will hopefully result in a high draft pick come next May as the tank for stroud campaign begins in October.

27: Pittsburgh Steelers

RIP the Mitchell Trubistky era in Pittsburgh, we hardly knew ye. For the first time in seemingly ever, Tomlin may coach a squad to a 500 or better record. Trubitsky performed as terribly as we all expected, the offensive line is every bit as awful as it was last year and round 1 rookie QB Kenny Pickett is now set to start for the rest of the season. All I can say is good luck. Pittsburgh barely beat the Bengals despite a 6 turnover advantage, lost TJ Watt for the season and subsequently, lost all hope for the season. They’ve lost three straight games with their best effort being an admirable loss to the Patriots but now face a significantly harder part of their schedule over the next month. Like others on this tier, the hope is that there’s a reason to look forward to next season but playoff and SB aspirations appear to be in the rear view mirror.

28: Denver Broncos

There’s little to say of Denver that hasn’t been said already. Especially after the disaster against the Colts that I’ll ignore for now given that this is meant to reflect the first four weeks of play. Instead, I’m going to plagiarise myself from my week two winners and losers column that sums up the season pretty succinctly.

“This couldn’t have been the start Russell Wilson was hoping for. Heading into this season, it was all positive thinking and a championship mindset as he left his former team for the mile high city. Instead, we’ve bore witness to what may be the end of Wilson’s run of being a championship calibre QB. Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris (who’s looked fantastic for Seattle), two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick. In return, Wilson has delivered a two-game cumulative stat line of: 559 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT at a 58.9% clip.”

Almost nothing has changed since I wrote that. Denver gave Vegas their first win while Wilson pulled off a Cousins inspired deceptive box score. As of week four, a victory against the Niners is the sole highlight of the season with their other win coming against the winless Texans. More could be written about the game against the Colts but I’ll save that for next week.

29: Chicago Bears

Yeahhhhhh, the Fields era may be done after just a couple years. They may have a 2-2 record but their two wins are a monsoon-esque win over the niners and a 3 point victory over the winless Texans. That tells you all you need to know but if your desperate for more, here it is. They’re third in the league in rushing which is great. They average 97.5 yards per game passing which is not so great. They’re 4th in the league in passing defence which is great. They’re 32nd in the league in rushing defence which is not so great. Still need more? Fine. Fields has attempted 67 passes through 4 games, completing 34 of them while throwing 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Despite so few passing attempts, he's been sacked 16 times for a loss of 81 yards. All hope for this team centres around losing more games and acquiring professionally trained offensive lineman and a professional QB.

30: Washington Commanders

Peaking right at the start of the season, the Commies somehow pulled off a win against the jags before facing reality and losing 3 straight games that they were never competitive in. The Wentz experiment hasn’t worked and Terry McLaurin must be losing his mind having yet another bad QB that’s throwing him god awful underthrown balls. The defence still isn’t great despite seemingly having loads of talent and it could very well be the last ride for coach Ron Rivera. If your looking for bright spots commies fans, it’s that Curtis Samuel has been a great addition and your getting Brian Robinson back this week which should bolster the offensive output. The schedule is also remarkably comfortable all things considered so they may grind out more wins than you’d otherwise think. A playoff berth is out of the question but a 7-10 record is at least feasible.

Abandon all hope

I’m going checklist these final two into pro’s and cons given neither squad are worth the time or effort.

31: Carolina panthers

Pro’s:

The defence appears competent, especially the young pieces in the secondary as well as Brian Burns on the defensive line

McCaffery looks healthy and every bit as great as he was a couple seasons ago

Robby Anderson appears to be a solid addition

They’ve only won a single game so far

Cons

They don’t own their 2023 3rd round pick

The offensive line is still bad

Baker Mayfield is far from the answer and is quite possibly the worst QB they’ve fielded the past two seasons

Mcaffery will get another year older and accumulate more miles on the odometer

Matt Corral may not have a chance to play this year

Fans are excited about the return of Sam Darnold

32: Houston Texans

Pro’s:

Keep losing, draft a QB in a strong class.

Damon Pierce looks awesome

You can’t go 0-17

Brandin Cooks will still somehow get another 1000 yard season

Stingley looks good

Jerry Hughes is still somehow really good

You aren’t committed to anyone long term

You aren’t last in any category

Cons:

Your division is bad enough that you may win more games than you otherwise should, thus screwing up your draft pick status

The Browns have already won 2 games without Watson

Davis Mills isn’t the answer

If you can name the entire offensive line, you’re a god damn liar

Your paying Watson 16 mill in dead cap money and Zach Cunningham 12.8 mill in dead cap money

Your current cap space is 1.8 million

That’ll do it folks. If you’ve read everything up to this point then give yourselves a pat on the back. There won’t be a winners and losers coloumn this week given how much time this piece took. But it’ll return next week. Whether the power rankings will return is TBD but if it does, it’ll likely come back in a shorter format that more or less builds upon everything that’s been written here. Until then, I’ll catch ya next time

Kurtis Wenban

Winners and Losers Week 3 of the NFL season

Apologies for the extremely late write up for this week. A combination of a rather severe disruption in schedule combined with wanting to do a couple other things led to this column being written far later than intended. As a result, the Bills-Dolphins game won’t be discussed here given what we’ve subsequently seen with Tua. Everything else is on the table however and like last week, we have 3 winners and 3 losers.

Winners: Cowboys, Jaguars, Ravens

Cowboys

A couple weeks in the NFL can be a lifetime and that’s outstandingly clear with the Cowboys. After week one, most (including myself) had this team dead and buried. They were incredibly inept on offence against Tampa even before the Prescott injury and while the defence looked solid, that too appeared to be more of an indictment on the Bucs injuries on offence than anything else. Two weeks later though and things have changed a little for America’s team. In week two, Dallas offensive co-ordinator Kellen Moore wrote up a gameplan that allowed backup QB Cooper Rush to play within himself. This resulted in few mistakes on offence and to Rush’s credit, he also made a couple of fine throws himself. That allowed this vaunted pass rush to do what it does best as it battered Joe Burrow to the tune of 6 sacks as Dallas walked away with a 3-point win in the dying seconds.

Speaking of last second victories, their opponents (NY Giants), had made a living off of close fought victories, winning their first two games by a combined 4 points. With Philly seemingly set to run away with the division, this game was critical in getting an early leg up for a wild card berth. Most pundits weren’t predicting a pretty game and rightly so as Dallas’s offence continued their trend of having solid drives stalled out by dumb penalties. On the first drive, it was a penalty by backup LG that forced a punt. On the second, it was a false start as well as a holding call that held resulted in 3 points despite 8 minutes of possession time in the first quarter. Fortunately for Dallas, the pass rush showed up once again despite Micah Parsons battling an illness as Daniel Jones was under fire in what seemed like every pass attempt. This would stay true for most of the game as Dallas would continue to make self-inflicted mistakes while Daniel Jones did everything in his power to carry the Giants offence and mitigate their disastrous offensive line. Ultimately, an impressive throw and catch from Rush to Lamb in the 4th quarter would put the game out of reach for the Giants and Rush would maintain his perfect 3-0 record as a starter. This was a critical win for the Cowboys who couldn’t have asked for a better start after Dak went down and if they are able to win this week, they may have Dak back just in time for the tough part of their schedule as they play the Rams, Eagles and Lions after playing the Commanders.

*Special mention has to go to Daniel Jones here just before we move on. It’s been noted already but he played quite a remarkable game despite the totally forgettable box score. He may have been sacked 5 times and never threw a TD but any QB less mobile than he would’ve been sacked 10 times under that horrendous Giants line. He also picked up so many positive plays with legs while escaping the pocket. Box scores aren’t everything and that’s no truer here as it appears to be getting clearer that the Giants front office is a far bigger problem than Jones himself who continues to improve year after year despite having little in the way of help.

Jaguars

How bout them Jaguars. Entering the season, their estimated win total was 6.5. Through 3 weeks, they’re 2-1 and have completely dominated their past two games. Before giving the Jaguars a heaping of praise, let’s first cover the sceptical route. It’s hard to ignore the week one loss to the commanders given what we’ve seen from them as of late. But it’s easy to forgive week one losses given that we only have 3 preseason games now as well as a week off between the third preseason game and the first regular season game. Likewise in week two, they dominated a Colts team that’s far from a proven contender (especially with Darius/Shaq Leonard out to injury). Sure it was a shutout but there was an argument to be made this was a result of Indy’s incompetency rather than the Jaguars superiority. That’s why the game against the Chargers was so reaffirming to making the case that Jacksonville is real up and coming contender on the rise. Of course, it’s easy to point out the injuries to the Chargers entering that game (as well as those sustained during it) are the reason the Jags won that game so convincingly. Losing Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater are major blows to a team that was already struggling with Herbert’s busted ribs (as well as missing Keenan Allen and JC Jackson). Contributing the entire victory due to opposing injuries however is disingenuous and quite simply, wrong. Once again, it was a balanced attack that paved the way for the Jags to carve up the Chargers defence as James Robinson continues his bid for comeback player of the year while everyone’s favourite offseason overpay, Christian Kirk, seems to be worth every cent. Likewise, Trevor Lawrence is thriving without Urban Meyer as he plays mistake free football, notching up a season stat line of 6 TD’s to 1 INT at a 69.4% clip. Rookies Devin Lloyd and Trevon Walker continue to make an impact with the former earning defensive rookie of the month honours this past week.

All these additions have led to the Jags being a formidable team as although they don’t feature much in the way of star power offensively or defensively, they’ve been a consistent squad which in the early going, is critical in grinding out early wins. The AFC South lacks any true contenders which leaves the Jags poised to win the division and attain their first playoff appearance since the Blake Bortles era. Somewhere in the Good Place, Jason Mendoza is smiling down upon this squad.

Ravens

This was initially meant to be the Dolphins in their win against the Bills but given the time of this piece and everything that’s occurred since with Tua, it seems appropriate to move away from that and instead look towards the Ravens. Consequently, there isn’t a lot to discuss with this Ravens squad. They took care of business against their on again off again rivals in that of the Patriots and did so convincingly despite having just an absurd number of injuries for yet another season. Through 3 weeks, things have gone quite nicely for the Ravens. Week one saw a comfortable, albeit boring win against the Jets before the absurd win then loss against the Dolphins last week and the comfortable win against the Pats. In a contract year, Lamar is doing everything possible to get a Mahomes esque deal along with some extra guaranteed cash. Combining his rushing and passing stats, he’s accumulated 12 TD’s, 2 INT’s and 1000 total yards while completing a respectable 63.6%. He’s achieved this whilst not having much in the way of help. You could argue the offensive line is solid though NE had him under duress in the only good defence he’s come up against. Likewise, you could point to Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and the return of Dobbins as signs he has some good weapons. But only Andrews is a reliable target whereas the rest of them possess big play potential but are far cry’s from the weapons others possess.

The real cause for celebration for Baltimore is their AFC contemporaries. Trubisky and the Steelers appear haunted by the ghost of Big Ben past as that anaemic offence from last year has carried over with Mitch at the helm. Likewise for the Bengals, that “improved” offensive line still appears to be a dumpster fire as they are incapable of performing any kind of blocking at all, be that in the run or pass game. Instead, the Ravens biggest rivals appear to be the Jacoby Brissett led Browns who’ve continued to grind out some ugly, ugly wins while they wait for Watson’s return. Discussing said disgraced QB isn’t something that’ll be touched on here though it’s hard to deny the upside of that team once he returns. That may be the only dangerous division opponent Baltimore faces however and they’re schedule gets noticeably easier after playing the Bills. Going 2-1 through the first 3 weeks and looking dominant throughout most of the 3 games is a sign that the Ravens could be well on their way to being AFC title contenders in a loaded AFC.

Losers: Losers: Saints, Niners, KC

Saints

Well, when your wrong, your wrong. Heading into the season, the Saints seemed poised to make a leap from last year as the Saints went all in on improving their team immediately via the draft. First round picks Chris Olave, and Trevor Penning seemed set to fix the offensive woes of a year ago while Michael Thomas would finally make his long-awaited return. But as much as things change, some things always stay the same. Penning was seen as a reach for the price they paid to acquire him and unfortunately, we haven’t even seem him play yet as he suffered a turf toe injury that has him sidelined until at least week 6. Michael Thomas meanwhile appeared to be back and fully healthy, catching 3 TD’s in his first two games but has since gotten injured again and will miss week 4’s game. Olave has been the lone bright spot for this team through 3 weeks as he appears to be every bit as good as his contemporaries in a loaded WR class. All of this is for nought however if you aren’t winning games.

Week one probably should have set off some alarm bells for Saints fans as it took a miraculous 4th quarter comeback to overcome their division rival Falcons. It wouldn’t improve in week 2 as although the defence showed dramatic improvement, the offence put up 10 points and the defence finally gassed out in the 4th quarter leading to a loss against Tampa. That brings us to week 3 where the Saints faced a Carolina squad on a 9 game skid dating back to last year. Through 3 quarters, Jaemis (battling a back injury) led the Saints offence to a tremendous and productive 0 points. They’d attempt a 4th quarter rally but two INT’s by Winston would snuff out any hopes of a comeback as the Saints fall to 1-2. While the Saints not being appearing to be SB contenders shouldn’t come as a total surprise, it’s the way in which they’ve lost their two games that places them firmly in the losers column for this week. The offence is averaging just 17 points per game, good for 22nd in the league and looks completely inept apart from some late 4th quarter salvage jobs. It's hard to picture it getting any better either. While Thomas and Penning will return from injury at some point, Winston’s back problem will likely linger the entire season and vaunted rushing attack of years past appears to be gone. Playing hero ball will get this Saints team killed but it’s hard to picture another effective form of attack as of right now. The schedule doesn’t get any easier for them either as their November- December stretch appears to be especially tough. If they aren’t able to eek out a winning record by the end of October, it may spell doom for a Saints team lacking in draft picks next year. It also may mean the end of Winston’s tenure in New Orleans though it’s hard to picture exactly who would take over given the aforementioned lack of draft picks. The season is far from over but for the Saints, last weeks loss to Carolina may be the beginning of the end for this squad.

Niners

It’s easy to point out and argue the Niners belonged on this list last week given the loss of Trey Lance who was poised to be their future at QB. But you can’t forget that they won that game handily after the injury with Jimmy G stepping in on-route to a 27-7 blowout of Seattle. Likewise for the Bears game, it’s worth throwing out game entirely given the monsoon type weather it was played in. The real test of what the future held for this Niners team with Jimmy G under centre was this past week against the Broncos as they were also a team struggling and underperforming per offseason expectations. Had the Niners blown out Denver, it wouldn’t be inconceivable to think that they’d return to the form they had last year with Jimmy at QB. Most of the roster returned from last season and while the Niners have been bitten by the injury bug yet again, this is something they’ve faced every year post SB run. Instead of a blow out however, it was an ugly, ugly scrap between two offences incapable of producing any meaningful yards through the air. Sloppy play ruled the day as Jimmy had a tipped pass for an INT whilst committing a fumble on a strip sack. Jeff Wilson would add another fumble that sealed the game and brought the turnover tally to 3 before the clock hit 0. It was an astoundingly awful game of football that the Niners seemed capable of winning entering the game. Instead, we’re left with only questions regarding the future of this Niners team. Jimmy was never set to be their long term option at QB after drafting Lance and that future was sealed after he was announced starter for the season. Jimmy only stayed on the team because no one was willing to trade for him at his current price and he wound up taking a pay cut just to play backup. Where the Niners go from here is anyone’s guess but they currently sit at a 1-2 record and haven’t even begun the difficult part of their schedule yet.

*One little note before we move on, in last week’s column, Russell Wilson’s poor performances was pointed out for all to see. That did not improve this week either and while Denver won the game, it wasn’t off the back of his play. Wilson submitted a paltry 20-33 for 184 yards, no TD’s or INT’s while getting sacked 4 times.

Chiefs

Saving the biggest loser of the week for last, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs who seemed incapable of scoring on a Colts team who was shutout by the Jags the week prior and drew to the winless Texans in the season opener. This was a bizarre game to witness as Mahomes continued his streak of throwing balls that should be intercepted and are somehow dropped, time after time after time. Right from the jump, everything went to hell for KC as they fumbled a punt that led to an Indy TD. It didn’t get much better from there either as their subsequent two drives went 3 and out before finally scoring a TD after a Matt Ryan fumble. Points off turnovers would be the theme for the entire game as KC’s second TD would come off another Ryan fumble giving the Chiefs a 14-7 lead at half. Far from ideal but we’ve seen the Chiefs struggle in first halves before, before going nuclear in the third to blow games wide open. That wasn’t the case here though as a baffling delay of game penalty forced KC to kick a FG on what should’ve been a 4th and two play. Instead, it was 4th and 7 and they walked away with just 3 points off an 8-minute drive. The 4th quarter wasn’t any better as KC would miss a FG (due to Butker being injured) before Mahomes finally had to pay the bill for throwing some ill-advised balls.

It's a head scratching loss for KC as they really appeared to dominate most of the game despite being incapable of rushing the ball at all. Mahomes had success through the air but critical mistakes by either Mahomes or Kelce killed drives and left them wanting for points. To Indy’s credit, they performed rather well, especially the defence. But given what we saw from them the first two weeks, it’s hard to say that Indy won this game as much as KC blew it. Their next couple games aren’t that much easier either as they play Tampa this week and have the Bills in week 6. Given the state of their division however, this is far from a back breaking loss as the offseason AFC West hype is evaporating by the minute. We also can’t forget that this team is 2-1 and beat the Chargers before they suffered their multitude of injuries. But we also haven’t seen an impressive performance from them these past two weeks. KC still need a Tyreek Hill replacement, that much is clear. The defence however does look significantly better, especially with Juan Thornhill at safety who’s been a monster and has helped picked up the slack from losing the Honey Badger.

Over the course of the season, the Chiefs will likely be fine. But games like these will make you wonder just how high this teams ceiling is. No team is perfect of course. Most quality teams seem incapable of closing out games at the moment and dominant offences will vanish for quarters at a time. If KC stumble over the next month though, the mistakes made to Indy will be the signs that we should’ve seen and taken notice of.

Once again, that’ll do it. Apologies again for this coming out so late. Work changed drastically this week which altered my ability to get this done earlier. I also had to shift the format a little from how it was last week regarding the quotes before the breakdown. While I do love that format, it’s not something that will likely be done every week simply because it’s not always easy finding the perfect quotes. Lastly, this piece was a little shorter than last week as a result of not being able to watch as many games as I normally would. That should change for future weeks but life always finds a way of interrupting things. For now, that’s it done from me, cheers.

Kurtis Wenban

Winners and Losers from week 2 of the NFL season

After the usual overreactions and hot takes from the first week of having football back in our lives, most fanbases saw their hopes and dreams crash back down to earth as we had yet another string of bizarre comebacks coupled with a some upset wins. It’s still too early to say how exactly how the league is shaping up. While there’s some safe assumptions to be made, it seem that every week its forgotten that the NFL can be wildly unpredictable and that no teams are safe from upsets and conversely, no teams are beyond redemption and some playoff aspirations. This time last season, the Bills were 1-1, the Chiefs had disastrously blown a game to the Ravens, the Bengals were 1-1 and had lost to the bears in week 2 and the Rams had just barely eeked out a win against the Colts. We’re still a while away from finding out exactly what teams are contenders and what teams are pretenders.

Winners: Eagles, Lions, Bills, and Tua

Won’t you look at that, we have a couple of NFC teams on the winners column this week. After spending most of last week focusing on the AFC, we circle around to the NFC to see a dark horse contender emerge as well as a young upstart team that’s finally on the rise. For the AFC, the Bills are continuing their claim as clear cut SB contenders whilst the Dolphins led by Tua are making their mark as one of the fastest and most dynamic teams in the NFL.

“His deep-ball touch and intermediate accuracy improved this year so teams may see him as a developmental talent who will keep getting better in the right scheme. He'll struggle to beat NFL defenses from the pocket, but his ability to grind out yards on the ground and make off-schedule plays should make him a solid backup with upward mobility.”

That was the scouting report on Jalen Hurts coming out of college and watching him perform last season, it would’ve been hard to argue against. Hurts threw a paltry 16 TD’s across a full 27 games last year whilst only averaging 209 yards through the air at a 61% clip. None of his passing issues appeared to change in his first couple outings against Detroit last week either as he started the game with five straight incompletions despite rushing for 50 yards in the first quarter. Things changed pretty quick though as he found his new weapon, star receiver AJ Brown, time after time after time as Hurts bounced back to have a tremendous game. By the final whistle, he had thrown for 243 yards and while he did have a rough completion percentage, there was now a future in which Hurts may just be the QB Philly fans had been hoping for. Against the Vikings in week 2, Hurts inspired more hope than Tebow on a Sunday as he carved that defence up in the first half and did so whilst being incredibly accurate.

By games end, Hurts had finished 26/31 for 333 yards, 1 passing TD, 2 rushing TD’s and a single INT for a 24-7 victory. This doesn’t tell the full story of course as all 24 of those points came in the first half as Sota shutout the Eagles in the second half despite possessing the ball for large chunks of time. The lack of points was largely a result of penalties on the offensive line as time after time Hurts was facing first and 20’s or second and 15’s. Fortunately for the Eagles though, Darius Slay had himself a day and Kirk Cousins once again proved why prime time games are his greatest foil. Cause for concern does exist for Philly despite the easy win but the diversity of attack in that offence should leave Eagles fans with far more optimism than in week 1. No longer is it just AJ brown or Hurts’s scrambling ability that are the only means of attack. Devonta Smith finally got involved, as did Goedert in addition to Miles Sanders running the ball to great effect. With few solid contenders in the NFC, the Eagles may be emerging as real threats in the conference if Hurts is able to continue to use his arm and not just his legs to lead Philly to victory.

“It doesn’t matter if you have one ass cheek and three toes, I will beat your ass”

If you didn’t worship at the alter of Dan Campbell before, you almost certainly do now. Despite going 11-36 the past three seasons, there is not only hope but swagger in the motor city. In week one, it appeared as though we were in for a repeat of another sad Lions season as they faced a 24-14 halftime deficit that expanded into a horrifying 38-21 scoreboard entering the fourth quarter. But much like last season where Detroit would rally late, they did the same here and turned it into just a 3 point loss by games end. Whilst it doesn’t make a difference on the standings column whether you lose by 3 or 30, the performances of Swift and St. Brown showed that this team possess some real offensive firepower when healthy.

Week 2’s game against the Commanders would prove just that as Goff had the best game of his career since leaving Mcvay (throwing for 4 TD’s to 0 INT’s) and the Lions produced a balanced air and ground attack that saw them take a commanding 22-0 lead at halftime. The second half saw them on the receiving end of a second half rally for once but every time the Commanders scored, the Lions had an answer. Amon Ra St. Brown truly does look god-like at the moment as he went off for 9 catches for 112 yards and 2 scores. He also secured his 8th straight game of 8 or more receptions, a feat only achieved by 3 other WR’s in NFL history. Whilst Swift getting hurt is some cause for concern given his injury history, the lions offensive line is a dominant force and had no problem helping Jamal Williams have a productive (if uninspired) day on the ground. We also saw the emergence of their 2nd overall pick, Aiden Hutchinson who notched up three sacks in the first half. Speaking of rookies, the Lions have been performing without their other first rounder Jaemeson Williams who should add an additional vertical threat to the offence once he recovers. Jared Goff may not be the long term answer at QB for Detroit but through two weeks, they’ve shown that they’re going to a feisty out for any team they play against and may actually compete in a division that’s looking like the best out of the NFC.

“He’s a hell of a quarterback. Since I met him, it kinda clicked. You don’t click with everybody. That’s somebody I felt like, damn, I could grow old with you. I can see myself with for a while”.

Buffalo isn’t exactly the city of brotherly love (unless you count Bills Mafia and their love of smashing tables) but that’s exactly what happening at the moment between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Building upon their convincing win from last week against SB defending champs, they followed it up by annihilating the AFC one seed of a year ago in that of the Titans. Look, it’s obvious that these aren’t the same Titans of last year. They traded away AJ brown, replaced him with rookie Treylon Burks and appear to be in the rebuilding phase of team development. That doesn’t take away from the impressive nature of the win though as once again, it appears that the only thing capable of stopping their offence from scoring is themselves. Buffalo failed to score twice in the first half with both instances being self-inflicted wounds (though they still managed to achieve a 17-7 lead at the half). That would be rectified in the third quarter as they’d rack 24 quick points and the backup QB’s of both sides would be in before the end of the period. The Diggs and Allen connection paved the way as the former would go off for 12 catches for 148 yards and 3 TDs whilst the latter would have a 4-score performance for 317 yards. Most importantly, Allen only carried the ball once for 10 yards and instead, it was rookie James Cook getting a majority of the work on the ground. This is critical for the Bills moving forward as they can’t continue the trend from week one of rushing Allen on third and 4th downs every game and expect him to last well into the playoffs. Likewise, when these two teams met in 2021, Derick Henry gouged the Bills defence on-route to a 143 yard, 3 score day. That wasn’t the case in this game as they swarmed him on every single carry, often hitting him before he reached the line of scrimmage as they held the former OPOTY to just 25 yards off 13 carries (though he did snag the Titans one and only TD). Moving forward for the Bills, it appears they may have addressed their two biggest weaknesses from a season ago which has placed them as clear SB favourites for the time being.

NFL passing leader: Tua Tagovailoa

For the final winner of the week, we look at the most polarising lefty since Ned Flanders. So much has been made of Tua and this Miami squad with most of the chatter being skepticism at the former Alabama standouts ability to play in the NFL. It’s not unwarranted criticism either as Tua has lacked the accuracy, poise and decision making that he showed in college. Likewise, his ability to extend plays and escape the pocket from the left (something that’s absolutely brain breaking to watch after years and years of watching escapes from the right) has been mostly absent in the pro’s, be that due to injury or inability to perform. That wasn’t the case this week however as we finally saw why the “tank for Tua” campaign existed in the first place as he rallied from being 35-21 down in the 4th quarter to a 42-38 victory. It was truly a bizarre spectacle to witness as Tua threw 4 of his 6 TD’s in the closing chapter with three of those going to either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle (both of whom flirted with a 200 yard outing).

Whilst this could all be considered a win for Miami and not just Tua, it was the bizarre nature of how the win unfolded that places this strictly as a Tua victory. It’s certainly not a recipe for success moving forward, but Hill and Waddle are perhaps the quickest WR combination we’ve ever seen and that’s not going to change moving forward. If head coach Mike Mcdaniel and offensive co-ordinator Frank Smith can continue to scheme both receivers open, the potential of this team may actually reach, if not exceed, the preseason hype that surrounded them. But all of that rests on whether their QB is capable of utilising those weapons. Shootouts like the one against the Ravens will likely be the norm as well given that the defence has looked pretty abysmal through two games so they’ll need the offence to produce. We’ve seen QB performances that were complete aberrations in the past but if by seasons end we’re all remarking on how great Tua is then this game was definitely where it all began.




Losers: The AFC

It was one long, long week ago in which the AFC came out as victors of week one. Of course, it was never going to last as we got confirmation that there’s some legitimate concern in regards to some title contenders coming out the AFC, two of which being AFC west teams in that of the Broncos and Raiders. They aren’t the only ones though as the Bengals are now a team that has very real and detrimental issues to address.



“We’ve got a championship kind of football team, and we are excited about that. The exciting part about that is now it’s time to just show up and prove it”

This couldn’t have been the start Russell Wilson was hoping for. Heading into this season, it was all positive thinking and a championship mindset as he left his former team for the mile high city. Instead of SB worthy contending play, we’ve bore witness to what may be the end of Wilson’s run of being a championship calibre QB. Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris (who’s looked fantastic for seattle), two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick. In return, Wilson has delivered a two-game cumulative statline of: 559 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT at a 58.9% clip. That’s not going to cut it in any division, let alone the shark infested waters of the AFC West and Denver fans know it as they booed him several times throughout the game. Sure, the Broncos did win the game against the Texans and Vegas losing certainly helped them out. But this was meant to be an easy part of the Broncos schedule. Wilson’s former team beat him last week despite looking rather awful this week while their week 2 opponent, the Texans, drew with the winless Colts the week prior. Obviously, NFL math doesn’t work. Good teams will lose to bad teams and still go onto to have success. But nothing Wilson or the team has done inspires anything in the way of confidence. Denver was 10 point favourites against the Texans and never even really appeared remotely close to blowing that game out the water. Losing Jeudy to injury only exacerbates the offensive woes and the schedule only gets tougher from here. It’s unclear how the Broncos improve from here and attains a SB contending outlook. Perhaps they lean on the run dynamic run game, play conservatively and let other teams make mistakes which is how Russell achieved success early in his career. Or perhaps this is simply an anomaly where Wilson is still figuring out how to connect with his receivers and it’ll all rectify itself as he gets more time to acclimate. Given how the past couple seasons have gone for him however, you wouldn’t be crazy for thinking that this version of Wilson may just be the new norm.

“Joe Burrow is on pace to be sacked for 111 times this season”

The improvements to the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line have been greatly exaggerated it seems as Burrow continues to take hits that makes Andrew Luck wince in pain. Last week, the Bengals faced an incredibly stout defensive line in that of the Steelers which resulted in burrow not only being sacked 7 times, but also saw him commit 5 turnovers. Despite that, Cincy were still in the game and only lost as a result of McPherson missing the game winning field goal in OT. This can certainly be considered an indictment on how bad the Steelers offence is but it’s nonetheless worth noting as the Bengals still possess their key weapons from a year ago which kept them in that game despite the revamped offensive line being completely overwhelmed. Heading into week two, it seemed as though things could correct themselves a little playing a Dallas squad who themselves were atrocious the week before and were also missing their starting QB. It made sense that the Bengals could exploit the Dallas D which struggled to contain Fournette the week prior and attack the injured secondary for significant gains behind the dual headed monster of Chase and Higgins. While some of that did occur throughout the actual game, the story was largely the same for Cincy as defensive player of the year candidate, Micah Parsons, had his way against his former teammate La’el Collins on route to 3 sacks. It wasn’t just he who would feast though as Burrow faced a rather shocking amount of pressure on the interior as Dorrance Armstrong would get 2 sacks despite just having 5 all last season. Burrow would get hit with 6 sacks in total and threw for just 199 yards and a single TD as the Bengals never had the lead once throughout the game and lost to a game winning FG as time expired.

The offensive line issues are now a major cause for concern moving forward as their division is loaded with pass rushers and while they may still skate by to a division title despite the 0-2 start, their SB aspirations appear to be fading fast. Ask any team in history with an over performing QB on a rookie contract. Once that window closes and Cincy are forced to pay Burrow, roster construction gets immensely more difficult.  If the Bengals don’t rectify the situation quickly, the Joey B era may languish in turmoil behind the Ravens and Steelers, much like they have done throughout the entirety of the 2000s.

“Vegas means comedy, tragedy, happiness and sadness all at the same time

Football can be a cruel cruel mistress. Just one week ago, Vegas looked like a legit threat to win the division despite falling short against their rivals the chargers. Sure it didn’t go there way but the addition of Devante Adams looked to be a huge upgrade for Carr and the mistakes they made that game appeared to be fixable ones. Now a week later, while the mistakes are still rectifiable, they do appear to be a bit more systemic. Up 20-0 at half-time, the game appeared all but over as the raiders chewed the clock on the opening drive before scoring a FG on the following possession. With 12:31 left to go in the game, Vegas had a 16 point lead and the ball. What would ordinarily be considered a fairly commanding lead wouldn’t last as Vegas looked inept on offence whilst Muarry played some remarkably impressive improvisational football and tied the game on the final play, after having all the time in the world on the game tying 2 point conversion. Even after all this, Vegas still had a chance to win as the Cardinals punted it away on the first possession of OT. Once again, the Raiders blew this opportunity after Renfrow fumbled it not once, but twice and Arizona returned it for a score and the victory. Derek Carr would go on to have a total of 31 passing yards in the 2nd half and OT period (with a 47-yard pass interference penalty tossed in) while Devante Adams turned in 7 targets for 2 catches and 12 yards. So much of this is utterly inexplicable and while Carr played mistake free football, he did the one thing he’s always been criticised for in that he failed to produce when his team needed one final score. He can’t control Renfrow fumbling the ball but his 2nd half performance makes it difficult to believe this team can overcome all the issues of yesteryear and achieve something greater than they have before.

To Be Determined

Chargers and Chiefs

Finally, a quick little aside on the Chargers and Chiefs game. It was a huge matchup in determining the face and shape of both the AFC West as well as SB contenders though there’s little to takeaway from the overall game it seems. In the first half, despite a low score, it truly did seem like the game would live up to the hype as the Chargers pass rush routinely forced Mahomes into difficult or outright bad throws. This led to the Herbert and co jumping out to a 10 point lead before KC fired back to bring it to a 10-7 halftime score. As strange as it seems on paper, this was a well played first half that confirmed some thing we kind of knew heading in. Firstly that the Chargers defence is going to a nightmare to deal with all season. Secondly, that their offensive line really doesn’t appear to be able to bully opposing defensive lineman and create breathing room for Ekler to work. While for the Chiefs, losing Tyreek Hill impacts the verticality of this team as Mecole Hardman is unable to fill in that role. On the upside however, CEH does appear to be carrying over his form from last week and looked rejuvenated despite facing a stiff defence.

The second half is where things get wonky and why this game appears under the “TBD” category as instead of seeing some continued excellent play from both teams, we saw a rather sloppy and ugly affair as both offences made critical mistakes as opposed to excellent plays. Some of this stems from great defence of course but the deciding moments of the game came from mistakes that were either punished (the 99 yard pick 6 by KC) or fortuitously let go of (the numerous dropped INT’s Mahomes threw). Which is why the general consensus surrounding this game appears to be that the better team lost the game. This can certainly be argued against as at the end of the day, the final score is all that matters but the argument does have an element of truth to it. This game was meant to be a sneak peak into a potential AFC divisional or championship matchup where we’d glean truths as to whether the Chargers offseason super team can overthrow Mahomes. Instead, it seems like both teams need more refinement before a discussion of who’s the greater threat to the Bills can be had.

Send Off

And that’ll do it for another week of football. Clearly there are other winners and losers throughout the first couple weeks. Namely the Giants going 2-0, Indy being atrocious, the potential emergence of Lawrence, Brady maybe being washed, the insane Jets comeback (and 2-0 start) among others. Most of these should be placed on “TBD” however until we gather more information. It’s quite likely the Giants will start dropping games soon given their calibre of opponents and how they’ve won, while we’re a week removed from Wentz out-performing Lawrence. Until next time, this has been Kurt, laters.

Winners and Losers from Week 1 of the NFL season

After 8 long months off, football is finally back and is as batshit insane as ever. It all kicked off with a potential SuperBowl matchup against the Rams and Bills that caught everyone off guard. Though as it turns out, that game would be one of the tamer outcomes we saw across week 1 as we had teams frantically try and tie games up only to do their darndest to then lose them. For as much as things changed this past week, we saw a lot stay the same. With that said, let’s dive into it.



Winners

The AFC

Entering the season, there was a lot of chatter about the lack of contenders in the NFC whilst the AFC went all in on SB bids. This seems to be the case as the Chiefs, Bills and Chargers all passed the week one eye test.

Starting with the Chiefs, the concerns over the loss of Tyreek Hill seem to be greatly overstated as Mahomes, Kelce and CEH shredded apart the Cardinals defence with absolute ease, scoring a TD on the first 3 drives as the chiefs punished the blitz heavy defence of Arizona. Some of this shouldn’t come as a surprise, Zona certainly had their doubters entering the season but it was the way in which KC attacked that surprised many. CEH looked like elusive shifty back he was at LSU and was almost unrecognisable compared to how he played last season. Likewise, the offensive line looked strong in it’s pass protection and Mahomes methodically and calmly picked apart the defence. Though they still lack a true downfield threat, Kelce doesn’t appear to have lost a step and Juju seems to be a great addition for their intermediate passing attack. You still can’t help but wonder if Mecole Hardman will suffice as the team’s de-facto deep threat but for now, KC look incredible as they only failed to score off one possession with Mahomes at QB. Defensively they looked more formidable as well, especially in the secondary as Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill neutralising any downfield passing of the Cardinals. This is all without a major contribution from their two first round picks as Mcduffie’s injury will see him miss the next 4 weeks whilst George Karlaftis is still finding his way into the team.

During the 2021 NFL playoffs, we saw Josh Allen go supernova as he played about as perfect as humanly possible. Only an equally superhuman performance from Mahomes stopped the Bills from advancing into the AFC title game and perhaps, the SB. If Friday’s game is any indication, that was only the beginning for Allen and Co as the Bills eviscerated the once vaunted Rams defence. The only thing stopping the score from becoming even more lopsided than it ended up being was some boneheaded turnovers as bills recievers saw the ball slip through their grasp as well as a fumbles by rookie James Cook and Zack Moss. While this may be some cause for concern, it’s likely these are some week one wrinkles that will likely be sorted by seasons end. New additions to the team in that of Jamison Crowder and Von Miller looked fantastic as Crowder proved he’s still one of the most underappreciated slot receivers from the past five years, whilst Miller made an immediate impact to the Bills pass rush, notching two sacks. Some of the defensive appittude could certainly be chalked up to the Matt Stafford’s injured elbow as well as the lack of receiving talent behind Kupp though it’s hard to deny just how effective the Bills were at creating a pass rush off just sending four. The only injury concern for the Bills moving forward is Ed Oliver who appears to be in a walking boot though no details of the injury have emerged beyond that. As for now, it seems like the Bills may have another rematch with the Chiefs in their playoff future, perhaps for an AFC title game this time around.

Always the darling of every reporters winners and losers column of the off-season, the Chargers won a game that’s a lot closer than what box score shows. Ordinarily, this would indicate that the chargers aren’t as good as they’ve been billed but in this instance is the opposite. Facing a revamped vegas offence, the Chargers D made some spectacular plays despite missing star corner J.C Jackson with 2nd year pro Asante Samuel Jr making one of the most incredible INT’s you’ll see all season. Likewise, the addition of Mack proved to be a major factor as he blew through a shoddy Vegas offensive line to make the game winning sack. The Raiders did give the chargers all they can handle though despite the critical mistakes thanks to terrific run stuffing defence that never allowed the Chargers to produce a balanced offensive attack. All of this amounts to two strong teams in a loaded division where the Chargers were able to get a win against a rival despite being on the receiving end of key injuries. In the battle of AFC contenders, the Chargers may be third on the list but the potential is there for them to give the Bills and Chiefs some real problems if Herbert is able to continue his development and get JC Jackson and Keenan Allen back.

Minnesota Vikings

The final winner of the week belongs to one of the few hyped teams coming out of the NFC. Under new head coach and former Rams OC Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings looked like a reformed team, set on changing the era of futility the Vikings have endured since that one magical Brett Farve season. On the very first drive of the game, O’Connell put Justin Jefferson in motion and got one of the best WR’s in football wide open time and time again. To Green Bay’s credit, they’d hold the Vikings to just 3 points over the next 3 drives but GB’s lack of weapons on offence as well as the pass rushing ability of former Packer, Zaderious Smith, totally neutralised the Packers attack. Once the game reached a 17-0 halftime score, it was all but over as Sota were able to drain the clock dry in the 4th quarter and cruise to a 23-7 victory. While that isn’t a completely inspired margin of victory, it’s a good foundation for a team who had the burden of victory placed upon their shoulders for the first time in quite a while. Cause for concerns do loom for them if their offensive line can’t hold and there’s certainly some questions left for Kirk Cousins if they’re to be considered a true SB contender. But in what appears to be a lacklustre NFC, the Vikings are poised for a deep playoff run.


Losers

The NFC

Boy oh boy, if aspiring AFC contenders were the biggest winners of week one then the reverse is true of NFC title hopefuls as almost every single NFC playoff team from 2021 lost in that of the Rams, Cardinals, Cowboys, Packers and 49ers all lost whilst the only winners from that playoff run didn’t exactly pull of impressive victories. To the 49ers credit, they lost a game that was practically in a monsoon whilst for the Packers, they lack the expectations of years past after the loss of Adams. Instead, we will be focusing on the Cowboys, Cardinals and Rams given all 3 teams looked absolutely atrocious.


The first prime time game of the season, the Cowboys entered the game against the Bucs hoping for an improved version of last years epic. Instead, Dallas managed to go from the highest scoring offence of the 2021 season to the only team to not score a TD for the week and never even really appeared close to doing so. Obviously the cowboys have seen a lot of changes to the roster as they shipped off Amari cooper, lost Tyron Smith and James Washington in preseason and still don’t have Gallup back. All these things led to a truly anaemic passing offence against a Bucs defence that didn’t exactly appear menacing itself. None of the Cowboys receivers, including CeeDee Lamb were able to gain any separation whilst the offensive line committed penalty after penalty with Terrance Steele being the worst offender, racking up 5 penalties just on his own accord. Certainly there was positives for Dallas as the defence looks better than ever, led by a healthy Demarcus Lawrence as well as one of the best defenders in football in Micah Parsons. Zeke also looked fresher than ever, averaging 5.2 YPC despite Tampa having one of the highest rated rushing defences last season. But any bright spot now comes with a dull finish after news of the Prescott injury. Trailing 19-3 with just 6 minutes left, Dak would break his thumb that will require him to miss anywhere from 4-8 weeks according to reports while Cooper Rush will go under center. Even if by some miracle this doesn’t sink the Cowboys season, the offence still has major issues even with a healthy Prescott at the helm as the Oline and WR group isn’t good enough.

Doesn’t seem that long ago that the Cardinals were on top of the world as Kyler Muarry was a dual threat nightmare and the addition of Deandre Hopkins at a basement level price appeared to a game changing move. Instead, the Cardinals would win just 3 out of their final 8 games before getting blown out by the Rams in the wildcard round. Entering the 2022 season, the Cardinals added little to strengthen their team and lost more than they gained with the only meaningful addition to the team being Hollywood brown which cost them a first round pick. The lack of additions were clear immediately as the Chiefs torched the defence with ease whilst Kliff Kingsbury had no answers on playcalling duties. To the Cardinals credit, Kyler when healthy still looked like the dangerous dual threat QB he’s always been. But with no Hopkins and uninspired playcalling, all this mattered for naught as it was a world of short passes with few pass attempts downfield. Things don’t get any easier for the Cardinals this season as they are matched up with the AFC West this season and Hopkins won’t get back until week 8. This spells doom for a team that appears to be headed for the infamous treadmill of mediocrity though if this results in the firing of Kingsbury, there maybe be some hope in Arizona’s future.

Finally, we have the losers of the first game of the season and defending SB champs the Los Angeles Rams. In the salary cap era, it’s next to impossible to repeat as champions and even winning multiple across a 5- or 10-year window is a near impossibility for anyone not named Thomas Edward Brady. This is largely due to talent getting picked off rapidly, be it players or coaching staff. As previously mentioned, the Rams OC is now the head coach of the Vikings, Andrew Whitworth retired, OBJ is still recovering from the torn ACL he sustained in the SB and Von miller left for the Bills. All these losses were immediately apparent against the Bills as Stafford was under fire constantly and were unable to produce much through the air outside of some incredible work by Cooper Kupp. Even with the Bills having some uncharacteristic turnovers, the Rams weren’t able to capitalise, putting up just 10 point by half time in a tied game. The lone bright spot on the Rams offence was an ability to get the run game going as while Akers still looked to be recovering from his achilles tear, Darell Henderson looked to go through the CEH of revitalised RB play as he was productive on the ground despite playing against a top tier run defence from a year ago. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said of Stafford as his throwing motion looked off despite Mcvay downplaying the elbow injury. Adding insult to injury was the sympathy given out from Bears fans as Allen Robinson was completely anonymous throughout the game, catching one of 2 targets for a grand total of 12 yards. Moving forward, the Rams face a surprisingly cushy schedule for a defending champ as their division doesn’t appear to be particularly strong which gives them time to sort their offensive line and receiver issues should they decide to do what they always do and haemorrhage their future for short term gains. Without a replacement for Whitworth however, it appears as though the Rams have a ceiling on their dreams of being the first repeat champs since the Patriots of 04-05 era.

That concludes the first winners and losers session of the NFL season. While many more teams won and lost obviously, there wasn’t too many outcomes that were entirely unexpected even if the way we got them were absolutely wild (shoutout to week 1 kickers doing their darndest to win or lose the game for their teams). Until next time, this has been Kurt.

NFL R1 draft grades

In a draft where no one was in on a QB and we all speculated who would reach and a day two prospect in round one, we actually saw a draft that was both chaotic and somewhat reasonable. This isn’t to say however that we didn’t receive an incredibly entertaining draft that lived up to all the expectations placed on it as the once again, we were riveted to see names get called out. It’s easy to understand just how absurd the whole process is as it’s likely that half the players in round one will likely go on achieve a modest amount of success with many never receiving an extension from the team that drafted them. But the beauty of draft day is that we all ignore reason and are instead united in optimism. It’s the only weekend of the year that every fanbase enters full of hope instead of dread or frustration. Unfortunately, by the end of day one, many fan bases return to frustration and wish for their owners to sell the team or for their GM’s and coaches to move on to greener pastures. This is what we’re here to parse. Which teams theoretically thrived and which floundered more than a fish in the fake Miami Grand Prix Sea. With this inspiring and motivational spiel finished, onto the picks.

**** Note that the grade criteria involves the player chosen as well as the value of the pick

Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars

Player chosen: Travon Walker (Edge)

Grade: C+

Balke actually did it. Entering January, Walker entered as a prospect that wasn’t even considered a day one pick on some mock drafts. But the combine and pro day saw Walker’s draft stock skyrocket as his elite measurables lit up GM’s eyes as they saw a potential all pro edge if they are able to match his production to his athletic traits. If round one is all about measurables then Walker is the definition of a round one pick. There should be legitimate concerns over his production. While he wasn’t used as a pure pass rusher on that loaded Georgia defence, he was still unable to put up numbers similar to other trait over production rushers. As such, the pick gets a C+. It’s a pick that’s high risk and high reward. You could argue that this has led the jags to the predicament they currently find themselves in and the lack of stability in coaching leads reminds me a little of their Donte Fowler pick. Given they had the first pick, they also could have picked literally any other player on the board, including “safer” edge rushers such at Hutchinson or Kayvon. But they could also have themselves a player that lives up to the hype of top tier rushers of draft class past such as the Bosa brothers and Myles Garett.

Pick 2: Detroit Lions

Player chosen: Aiden Hutchinson (Edge)

Grade: A

The Lions get their hometown kid after all. Initially projected as a top 3 pick entering 2022, Hutchinson aced the vetting process with teams as they fell in love with his attitude and high motor. As a prospect, Hutch is as safe as it gets for this edge rusher class. Despite possessing short arms, he has everything else you could ask. While you can’t ask him to drop into coverage like Walker, his production this past CFB season was top notch and his floor projects to be a player who gets you 8 sacks a season. His ceiling isn’t as high as Walker or Kayvon but for a team with a strong culture who’s trying to complete a rebuild without a clear cut QB, Hutchinson is a perfect fit.

Pick 3: Houston Texans

Player chosen: Derek Stingley Jr (CB)

Grade: A-

A superstar in 2019, were he draft eligible his first season, he likely would’ve been picked this high if not higher. Since that outstanding season however, he’s treaded water with some extremely limited appearances the next couple seasons. Despite this, the Texans feel confident that he’s over his injuries and is ready to return to form as a generational prospect at CB. This pick only gets a A- as while he could be a pro bowl starter day one, the lack of playing time the past couple seasons has to be concerning, especially with someone like Sauce Gardner still on the board. He likely wouldn’t have been available with the Texans next pick but like the Jags, this does seem like a risky choice for a top 5 pick. The Texans also passed on filling other needs such as edge, WR and OT but if Stingley can reproduce his 2019 form, this will be a home run pick for a team in desperate need of talent.

Pick 4: New York Jets

Player chosen: Amad “Sauce” Gardner (CB)

Grade: A+

The first A+ given through 4 picks, this was a great pick by the Jets, even if they didn’t want to make it. Sauce is a start and forget type prospect with 3 years’ worth of production that netted 0 TD’s allowed. He hasn’t played any zone coverage which may concern some but as a press heavy corner, you’re looking at a lockdown prospect. He carries no injury concerns, has the traits to match the production and fills a pressing need for the team. While they don’t address WR here, they knew there was every chance to get the first or second one with their second pick.

Pick 5: New York Giants

Player chosen: Kayvon Thibodeaux (Edge)

Grade: A+

Unfortunately for the other NFC East teams, the Giants get who many considered to be the best pass rusher in this class. Projected to be the first overall pick even as far back as the end of the 2020 CFB season, the Giants acquire someone who possess elite level of production combined with top tier traits. He can play both inside and outside, has a bevvy of moves and will slide in as a day one starter. The single risk this pick carries is not acing the vetting process for some teams but his talent and production match only Sauce Gardner in this class and for that, receives an A+ as they got a potential first overall pick, four spots later.

Pick 6: Carolina Panthers

Player chosen: Ikem Ekwonu (OT)

Grade: A

There was temptation to give this pick an A+ as the Panthers avoided making a desperation grab at QB and instead opted for the reasonable choice to rebuild the Oline. Despite that, Ikem does run some risk of inevitably playing guard as while he’s the most elite run blocker of this class, his pass blocking game still needs some refinement. Regardless, this is an outstanding pick given Ikem was considered by many to be a top 3 pick and was once favourited to go first overall. Carolina may not have solved their QB problem but much like the Lions last year, they are focusing on building a team that a young QB can thrive from, instead of hoping for a generational talent that carries them past poor surrounding talent. Ideally, they’d have traded down given their lack of draft capital but taking their choice of the top tackle prospects is still a great decision.

Pick 7: New York Giants

Player chosen: Evan Neal (OT)

Grade: A+

After nabbing potentially the best edge rusher of the class, the Giants come back two picks later and grab one of the top tackle prospects. Possessing a gigantic frame, Neal is the most well rounded OT in this class as he’s a bulldozing force in the run game and a stout wall when pass blocking. He does carry some concerns as some injuries limited him at times (with some teams reporting concerning medicals) and he falls over on his blocks far, far too often. Despite this, the Giants have to be thrilled with how their first two picks have gone, getting two players they should be eager to sign onto a contract extension in 4/5 years’ time and maximising their draft value.

Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons

Player chosen: Drake London (WR)

Grade: C

We finally arrive at a contentious pick. While the Walker pick isn’t universally loved, it’s at least understood by everyone why they made the pick. This isn’t so universal with the Falcons pick as while they were in desperate need for WR given the Ridley suspension, many including myself were surprised that London was their choice. London thrives deep as despite possessing “slow” round 1 speed, he is without a doubt the best contested catch receiver in this class. While this could prove useful next to athletic freak Kyle Pitts, many thought they’d have opted for a more versatile receiver, someone who could be used in a multitude of ways to help out whoever they choose to start at QB. London may prove himself worthy of this pick but you can’t help but be skeptical of the team fit here. There are certainly some who love this pick and see the all jump ball squad ATL is building but I think London is best suited to a more established QB who’s able to place the ball in his vicinity rather than relying getting wide open separation to make up for ball placement. This pick also lacks value as they are a team desperate for talent all over the board and it was kind of shocking they didn’t trade out of this pick, even if it meant not receiving “equal” value.

Pick 9: Seattle Seahawks

Player Chosen: Charles Cross (OT)

Grade: A+

Go figure that the one time the seahawks take a quality offensive line prospect high in the draft is when they no longer have a franchise QB. Head scratching judgement aside, this is a fantastic pick for the Seahawks as they grab the last of the top 3 tackle prospects. Cross is a player who thrives in pass blocking sets as he played in an air raid offence that rarely saw him run block. This is also the only concern regarding Cross as while he’s a capable run blocker, he’s far more inexperienced at it than the other two OT taken before him. It’s also not an ideal fit given Seattle’s love of running it on first and second down before throwing a prayer on third and 8. Still, it’s hard to argue with just how good a pick this is as getting a potential franchise LT so late is just fantastic value and when Seattle does eventually find their Wilson replacement, he should receive far better protection than Rusty ever did.

Pick 10: New York Jets

Player Chosen: Garett Wilson (WR)

Grade: A+

After a weeks’ worth of chatter about a potential Deebo Samuel trade, the Jets “settle” and opt for Ohio State standout, Garett Wilson. While the criticism around London is his lack of speed and versatility, Wilson possesses none of those issues. He has 4.38 speed and can line up all over the field, be that at as a prototypical X receiver or in the slot. Wilson was atop of my WR rankings and although getting a deal done for Deebo would’ve been ideal, drafting Wilson and having him on a cheap 4 year deal is the next best option. The weaknesses Wilson lacks are the inverse of London. He lacks size and is going to struggle to beat jam coverage if he doesn’t bulk up a bit. The Jets really wanted to trade out of one of their picks and while they were unable to, I think they adjusted to the draft board quite well and got two top tier prospects with their picks and would later address yet another need in the first round. A clear A+ and for the first time in a while, both New York teams have much to be optimistic about.

Pick 11: New Orleans Saints (traded with the Washington Commanders)

Player Chosen: Chris Olave (WR)

Grade: D-

Before you get outraged and blabber on about how Olave could be just as good as his running mate and that the Saints needed a WR to pair with Michael Thomas (if he ever comes back and plays) know that this is both a grade on the player as well as the value of the pick. Olave is a fine player who although I wasn’t as high on as others, should have been considered a first-round pick in league desperate for WR talent. As a prospect, Olave deserves a B/B+ as he’s a fantastic route runner with incredibly reliable hands and could likely be the most pro ready receiver to start this season. Where this pick falters however is in the value. The Saints gave up an absolute haul to acquire an additional first and gave up even more picks to move up from 16 to 11 in order to acquire Olave. This is horrific value as they didn’t acquire a QB, the one position potentially worth giving up all they did for this pick. The only reason this isn’t an F is because Olave should turn out to be a productive pro and Jameis showed glimpses of at least being a capable enough starter for a potential playoff push in a weaker NFC.

Pick 12: Detroit Lions (traded with the Minnesota Vikings)

Player Chosen: Jameson Williams (WR)

Grade: A

After 0 trades in the first 10 picks, we get back-to-back trades to acquire receivers with Alabama standout Jameson Williams flying off the board to Detroit. In order to achieve this, the Lions had to trade up from 32 with their divisional rivals, sacrificing a top 3rd round pick and moving down 10 places in the second round with a pick swap. This is an absolute heist by the Lions as moving up 20 spots in the first typically requires far more draft capital. In doing so, the Lions get the best graded speedster in the class. Possessing legitimate 4.3 speed (although this is speculative as his ACL injury prevented him from running at the combine), Williams is the second coming of Will Fuller who hopefully won’t carry his injury history. He may not project as a pure X receiver but the Lions get themselves someone who can blow the top off a defence and will force safeties to hang back in coverage be it in the slot where he played at Alabama or on the oft occasion, at the X. Injury concerns and a lack of refinement in his overall game limits the grade to an A as while the trade value was fantastic, there is the real risk that his career plays out exactly like Fuller’s did. Still, through 2 picks the Lions get themselves the edge rusher with the highest floor as well as a high ceiling WR. Not a bad haul given the Stafford trade kind of backfired on them.

Pick 13: Philadelphia Eagles (trade with the Texans)

Player chosen: Jordan Davis (DL)

Grade: A-

Another pick, another trade as Philly moves up a couple spots to get ahead of the Ravens and take Georgia behemoth Jordan Davis.  Although not technically the heaviest member of this class, Davis is about as big as it gets along the defensive line and is a true freak athlete, running a 4.78 40 at 341 pounds. Many are pegging this as an A+ pick and I certainly love Davis as a player. He doesn’t get the A+ grade from me because it’s tough to give that rating for a player who doesn’t play that often. Davis has serious conditioning issues and would gas late in games despite a limited snap count. If Philly are going to get the most out of him, it’ll be as a rotation NT who likely plays the early downs and gets a breather on pass rushing sets. That’s perfectly fine but drafting someone so early who isn’t an every down player currently does limit what I can give this pick.

Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens

Player chosen: Kyle Hamilton (S)

Grade: A

I was incredibly tempted to give this pick an A+ as the value is fantastic as Hamilton was once considered a top 3-5 pick in this class and didn’t start falling until his lacklustre 40 time at the combine. As a prospect, i’m sure the ravens are hoping he’s the second coming of Ed Reed as despite the 40 time, he possess great “game” speed, consistently darting across the field to break up passes or stuff RB’s in the box. He joins a Ravens squad that was swamped with injuries across the board last year, especially in their secondary and his addition should make Jimmy Smith and Co’s life significantly easier. Why Hamilton fell to the Ravens, and why the pick only receives an A here is that there is some hesitancy about just how good a zone safety he can be. The lack of 40 speed isn’t something that can be ignored and while he may overcome this, I think he projects better as a hybrid safety who spends some time in the box and other times covering opposing TE’s. His ability to cover receivers is questionable and is what stops me from giving Baltimore a straight A+ despite the great value.

Pick 15: Houston Texans

Player Chosen: Kenyon Green (OG)

Grade: B

The first guard comes off the board finally as the Texans after re-signing Tunsil this offseason, look to add another piece in helping surprising rookie standout Davis Mills. Drafting a guard in the first round is always going to be a mixed bag and I initially had this pick graded a lot lower before coming around on it. Taking a guard in the top half of first round when they aren’t a talent like Quinton Nelson can be a tough ask. They aren’t blocking the premier edge rushers and guys like Green lack the versatility to be used on swing and counter plays. But few things annoy a QB more than a collapsing pocket between the guards and so while Green isn’t a value pick, he is a necessary one. Possessing average measurebles, Green truly shines as a line drive pushing guard who should be a day one starter even if he projects to have limited upside. Perhaps I’m not giving Green nor the Texans enough credit on this pick but with players such as Burks, Penning (to play RT), Linderbaum and Jermain Johnson still on the board, it’s hard to love this pick when more valuable positions of need remained.

Pick 16: Washington Commanders

Player Chosen: Jahan Doctson (WR)

Grade: B-

Despite being received as the first proper “reach” of the draft, the Commanders walk away with a pretty solid grade here as they traded back and likely got the receiver they were after the whole time. Docston is an intriguing prospect as seen by the divisive reaction he received on draft night.  He’s a small bodied receiver with average speed which is why he wasn’t considered by most to be a round one prospect. What Doctson does posses however is terrific hands, elusiveness and route running whilst playing a very different style of ball compared to his new teammate, Terry Mclaurin. It’s not a pick I love, be it from a talent or value standpoint. But Washington needed someone to pair with Terry and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Doctson go in round one despite getting a round two grade. They did have other needs and it’s a little surprising to not see them take Kair Elam or Treylon Burks but this isn’t as bad a pick as people initially thought it was.

Pick 17: Los Angeles Chargers

Player Chosen: Zion Johnson (OG)

Grade: A

After discussing why a round one guard guard can be a tough ask and marking the Texans down slightly for it, why on earth am I giving the chargers an A you might ask. The answer to that is a combination of fit, talent and value just like every other pick. Zion is a great guard prospect who excels in both pass and run blocking. He possesses the prototypical build you’d want from a guard and has great strength from the position. You likely won’t see the chargers shuffle him around often as he’s nothing like Ikem in his ability go explode off the snap and shuffle his feet. But he projects to start immediately and enables the chargers to move their starting guard from last year, into the RT spot. While the Chargers could have eyed a player like a Devonte Wyatt or an extra WR to give Herbert more options, Zion is a team that immediately makes their offence better and enables them to protect their franchise QB, even if it doesn’t happen to be at a premium position.

Pick 18: Tennessee Titans (traded with Philadelphia Eagles)

Player Chosen: Treylon Burks (WR)

Grade: B-

The joke here is obvious and everyone has already made it. Yes, the Titans traded their pro bowl receiver for a player whose exactly like him as a prospect only a few years younger and cheaper. What this means for the Titans is that they’ve essentially stalled as a potential SB contender instead opting for a treadmill rebuild. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as their ceiling has always been capped with Tanehill at QB and given their current cap situation, re-signing A.J Brown was always going to cause them some issues. Instead of being stuck in cap hell or kicking the salary cap can down the road, they opt to get younger and cheaper and get a prospect who they hope is anywhere from 70-100% of what Brown currently is. Receiving only the 18th pick in the draft however isn’t great value given the current market for WR’s and they get no future picks in order to plug up other weaknesses, instead opting to fill the one they created in the first place with the trade. The Titans still need another WR to play alongside Burks and they haven’t improved their team at all with this pick. None of this is a criticism against Burks as he was a top 3-4 WR prospect in this class and the fact that everyone compares him to Brown, should be seen as a great compliment. He’s going to be a day one starter (not that they have any other choice) and he could easily become a receiver who notches 1000 yards a season thanks to his fantastic combination of length, height and speed. The only drawback to him as a prospect is a lack of production at the X as Arkansas played him primarily out of the slot, similar to Jameson Williams. Still, this is a solid pick even if it doesn’t improve the team in the immediate future.

Pick 19:  New Orleans Saints

Player Chosen: Trevor Penning (OT)

Grade: C+

One of the toughest picks to grade, the Saints use their 2nd first rounder on a tackle, shoring up their primary offensive weaknesses outside of QB. In a vacuum, this is a solid selection as Penning is a hard nosed OT who crushes opposing edge rushers in the run game and has potential to become a solid pass blocker. If he were slotting in at RT instead of LT, this likely becomes an A grade pick. But the Saints already have a pro bowler in that spot and instead, Penning is replacing Armstead who was a significantly better pass blocker. Penning needs a lot of refinement to his game and although the Saints will ask him to be a day one starter, they won’t love the protection that comes from it. Given the lack of draft capital they have, the pick makes total sense but as an overall haul for what they gave up, to walk away with a RT playing LT and a hopeful WR2, it’s astoundingly poor value.

Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Chosen: Kenny Pickett (QB)

Grade: C

When day one concluded the Steelers must have been just a touch concerned that no other teams moved back up into the first round to get a 5th year option on a rookie QB in a class where no prospect is viewed as definitively better than another. This concern would turn out to be well founded as no QB’s fell in round two and it wasn’t until early round 3 where a second QB would finally fall. As such, the value on this pick is pretty poor as it’s hard to be certain Pickett himself wouldn’t have fallen until later in the second, if not the third round. As a player however, Pickett projects to be a capable starter who’s ceiling is quite limited. He doesn’t have the arm of Willis nor the mobility but he does carry good accuracy with a decent ability to move through his progressions. It’s likely Pickett never gets a second contract and is instead someone PIT hope to build around and ask him to be just good enough for the rest of the team to be in a spot to win games. The one great advantage to Pickett is that he’s capable of being a day one starter if PIT have no interest in trotting out Trubitsky and he could be a QB who sees a wildcard berth his rookie season. PIT likely would have been better off fixing up their Oline but given the importance of QB, it’s understandable that they “reach” on Pickett.

Pick 21: Kansas City Patriots (trade with New England Patriots)

Player Chosen: Trent Mcduffie (CB)

Grade: A-

As per typical NE behaviour, the Patriots trade out and let KC slide in here to take the best zone corner of the draft. Mcduffie was projected to be a top 12 pick and instead falls due to the run on WR’s. While this means that while KC missed out on some of the early premier WR prospects, this did enable them to fix their secondary as Mcduffie is a 3-year starter who was fantastic every single season. He is a bit undersized but he makes up for this with top notch athleticism and is as smart as you’d expect from a zone coverage corner. This is a great value pick and addressed the biggest need for KC outside of WR. The only concern I have for this is pick is scheme fit given KC’s blitz heavy tendencies.

Pick 22: Green Bay Packers

Player Chosen: Quay Walker (LB)

Grade: D-

With the first of two first round picks, the Packers forgo the skill position player as per usual and take an off-ball line-backer instead. Every team values positions differently but it’s hard to argue against the shift away from line-backers as a whole. As such, it’s hard to see what GB were thinking with this pick. LB was certainly a positional need for them but given the players left on the board, they could have opted for a WR like Sky Moore or an edge like Jermaine Johnson or a better LB in Devin Lloyd who’s at least versatile enough to play anything they’d have asked of him. Walker will be fine for GB, likely becoming a starter immediately and he certainly possess a wonderful athletic profile. But the positional and draft value here is one of the lowest of the first round as, earning the rare D- grade.

Pick 23: Buffalo Bills (Trade with Baltimore Ravens)

Player Chosen: Kaiir Elam (CB)

Grade: B

In a loaded and pass happy AFC, the Bills add a CB to pair alongside Tradavious White who’s set to start immediately although Elam isn’t a set and forget type prospect. You typically hear an evaluation with edges, WR’s and Oline of “he’s an athlete that you need to teach how to play football”. You don’t often hear this evaluation with Elam but that’s the best way to describe how he plays CB. He’s incredibly long, tall and strong which enables him to stuff receivers at the LOS and contest deep balls when he doesn’t have the speed to stay with his man. As a technician however, he struggles as he doesn’t have the speed nor footwork to consistently be in the right position which has led to him committing many a needless penalty. As a value pick, it’s fine for the Bills given who’s left on the board. He wasn’t the best player available but he was the best corner left given the medicals around Booth Jr. Perhaps they could have looked at edge and added rotational depth, the Bills filled their biggest need with the best player left at his position.

Pick 24: Dallas Cowboys

Player Chosen: Tyler Smith (OG)

Grade: C+

Another really difficult selection to grade, in part due to it being the Cowboys pick, I settled on a C+ after initially being rather disgruntled at the selection. Smith wasn’t on many people’s radar as a first round pick. This is because he’s a tackle prospect who’s absolutely outstanding as a run blocker but incredibly raw as a pass blocker. At 21 years old, he’s going to have time to learn and he won’t be playing tackle straight away and will likely slot in at LG instead. As I’ve said many times throughout this piece, taking a guard in the first round isn’t something I love unless it immediately improves your team in a substantial way or if the prospect has all pro potential. While Smith has the physical tools to become an all pro calibre player, he likely projects to be a starting capable G who’ll commit one too many penalties and isn’t guaranteed to receive a second contract. This wasn’t a good value pick either as while Oline was a pressing need, Linderbaum was still on the board as were top edge prospects such as Jermaine Johnson or Karlaftis.

Pick 25: Baltimore Ravens

Player Chosen: Tyler Linderbaum (C)

Grade: A+

After receiving the 23rd pick in exchange for Hollywood Brown (and the 100th pick), the Ravens trade down a couple spots, recouping pick 130 and getting the third best value pick of the draft. This is a common theme throughout this draft as the Ravens consistently grabbed fantastic value per their draft position and maximised draft capital without sacrificing much in the way of draft positioning. Were I able to give this pick a higher grade I would as Linderbaum is the best C prospect we’ve seen in a very long time and although he doesn’t appear to fit scheme wise for Baltimore, they are a team you trust to make it work. The only apparent weakness that Linderbuam has is his frame. At 6’2, 296, he’d struggle to play any other position along the offensive line with that size. Everything else is fantastic as he’s strong, quick and possess great hands. Without a doubt one of the few players left of the board with clear all pro potential, the Ravens got an absolute steal here and did so despite trading down and getting back some of what little they lost in the Hollywood trade.

Pick 26: New York Jets (traded with Tennessee Titans)

Player Chosen: Jermaine Johnson (Edge)

Grade: A

A player who shot up people’s draft boards after the senior bowl, the Jets acquire someone who was initially projected to be a top 15 pick and instead trade back up into the first round to get him at 11 spots later. The trade between the Jets and Titans is one of the few that work out for both teams. For the titans, they accumulated an extra 3rd and 5th (both top of the order) whilst only moving down to early in the 2nd round. Given that their previous pick has them running in place, getting extra draft capital is a great move for a team who doesn’t appear to be going all in on a SB run. As for the Jets, they get 5 years of a player who should contribute at a premium position whilst giving away just a single valuable pick. Speaking of, Johnson is someone who isn’t a great athlete in any one area but is good in all of them. He likely won’t be a pro bowler, nor be a guy who gets you 10+ sacks a season. But he does look set to contribute straight away and given how great he looked the last time he saw him, he could prove to be an edge who produces beyond what the traits indicate (keep this in mind for the next edge who comes off the board). Given the Jets addressed their two biggest needs prior to this pick, it’s hard to fault them for draft value here and there isn’t any outstanding talent left on the board they just had to take.

Pick 27: Jacksonville Jaguars (Traded with the Buccaneers)

Player Chosen: Devin Llloyd (LB)

Grade: C+

Another difficult to grade pick as the Jags leap back up into the first round to grab the best LB prospect of this class. On one hand, the Jags got great value to trade up here, only giving up a 4th and 6th to get their guy. Lloyd is also a fantastic prospect. He lacks any real weaknesses beyond just an “acceptable” ability to tackle but I’d consider this to be a very minor nitpick. You could also say he isn’t a premier athlete at LB but really, there’s nothing Lloyd shouldn’t be able to do at the pro level even if he might be fantastic at any one thing. The drawback to this pick is in the positional value. Jacksonville could have just kept their Myles Jack who wouldn’t have cost them much more than Lloyd does now on a rookie deal (about an extra 2-3 million) whilst not having to use a first on a LB who will likely be a minor to moderate upgrade in a position that doesn’t carry a ton of value. Opportunity cost is a real factor teams need to consider and yet year after year, the Jags ignore this. Which is why it’s hard to give this pick a good grade as despite the good trade up value and grabbing a player who’s projected to be the best at his position from this class, they picked a guy who they could’ve gotten 80% of at the end of the third round.

Pick 28: Green Bay Packers

Player Chosen: Devonte Wyatt (DL)

Grade: B-

With the first pick for GB going to an off ball LB, most assumed the Packers couldn’t afford to select anyone else other than a WR. Those who assumed that would be wrong as they went for the second-best DL prospect in the class and shore up an already stout defence from last season. Despite being in dire need of offensive help, this pick actually makes a little more sense for GB. Wyatt is fantastic athlete capable of doing anything GB could ask of him along the Dline. As a prospect, he’s far more well rounded than Jordan Davis and although he may not be the run stuffing force of destruction Davis is projected to be, Wyatt is athletic enough to stunt and he’ll make everyone around him better due to his versatility. Where the pick falters a little is in the pick before this. Were Wyatt chosen with the Quay Walker pick, this would have freed up the Packers to select someone worthy of first round value here. Even if that’s Watson who they took in the second round, that saves them the value of trading back up to get him and it also nabs them an extra year on his contract. Of course, they could’ve also opted someone else here such as Karlaftis or even doubled down on WR and gone Sky Moore here and then trade up in the 2nd for Watson. The Packers have a lot of production to replace on the offence with both Valdez Scantling and Adams gone. Taking two defensive players in round one just isn’t maximising your draft capital to improve your team when you have a QB on what’s likely his final contract.

Pick 29: New England Patriots

Player Chosen: Cole Strange (OG)

Grade: C

This will likely be a controversial grade given the divisive nature of the pick. Initially mocked to high heaven with Sean Mcvay laughing so much he actually had to issue an apology out to Bellicheck, this pick was seen as a reach by most draft aficionados. Patriots fans have argued against this, citing multiple reports of teams who were interested in the early 2nd round and regardless of the validity of these reports, the pick certainly isn’t laugh out loud worthy but it also isn’t a pick where they maximised draft capital. As previously stated in this article, taking a guard in the first round really isn’t maximising value as they aren’t blocking elite edge rushers and, in most cases, don’t make your team substantially better unless you’re acquiring a Zack Martin or Quinton Nelson. The same is true for this pick as the Pats acquire a solid prospect in Strange. He’s incredibly athletic, one of the best Oline prospects of the class and is likely capable of playing either G or C. He needs refinement in his blocking however and despite being a 24-year-old rookie, will likely need some time to develop his game before he’s considered a reliable and consistent starter. Strange does fill a need but much like the jags, this feels like a self-inflicted replacement. They could have just kept Shaq Mason instead and used the first round pick on someone else, be that at WR (Sky Moore) or Edge (Karlaftis, Ebikitie). There’s the old adage of “In Bellicheck we trust” and that’s what NE fans are going to have to hope for now as while the rest of their draft was a bit more consistent, this pick doesn’t tick off the critical aspect of talent meeting value.

Pick 30: Kansas City Chiefs

Player Chosen: George Karlaftis (Edge)

Grade: A

An analytical darling, Karlaftis was largely forgotten about by most of the viewing public as despite producing some fantastic numbers last season (including 14 hits and 35 hurries), he’s generated no excitement for his talents. This stems from a perceived lack of upside as his measurables are mostly average. As such, he falls to KC at 30 who maybe get an edge with limited upside but do get an edge with fantastic strength and top tier collegiate production. As a team with SB aspirations, the Chiefs got someone who’s going to start and contribute straight away without any concerns about scheme fit all the way down at 30 without having to trade up again to get him. Much like GB, they took two defensive players here instead of using their draft capital to replace the star WR they traded away. The difference with the Chiefs are twofold. Firstly, they’re working with a better talent base as they have Juju, Valdez Scantling, Kelce, Hardman and now rookie standout, Sky Moore (finally). Any of those receivers would likely be WR2 at worst on the Packers. Secondly, is the players KC took. With their first pick, they got the best zone corner of the draft. And with the second pick, they take the best edge prospect left on the board. Both picks were the top talents left on the board at premium positions. This is precisely how you maximise draft capital, even if it means moving up a few spots to get a player. Great pick and a great draft from a team who looks as strong as ever despite losing their star WR.

Pick 31: Cincinnati Bengals

Player Chosen: Daxton Hill (S)

Grade: B

On a team with very few needs to address, many wondered if Cincy would trade out of this pick or just take whoever they had as the best available on their board. They do neither of those and instead take their future Jessie Bates replacement at safety. Hill is an extremely quick safety who projects to be a deep safety who will occasionally come in as a slot corner on certain dime packages. He’s quite light for a safety, you certainly won’t ever see him fill in at the box, at least not successfully. But for the end of the first round, the Bengals still manage to acquire a player who’ll like be a starter for them at some point. It’s not a great value pick as safety as unless your looking at someone with all pro upside, taking a safety in round one certainly isn’t ideal. But given the lack of overall weaknesses as well as who was left on the board it’s hard to fault this pick too much. They likely should’ve looked more towards edge as Ojabo and Ebikeite were still on the board and would’ve topped the best available which knocks the grade down a little.

Pick 32: Minnesota Vikings

Player Chosen: Lewis Cine (S)

Grade: C

With the 32nd pick of the 2022 NFL draft the Minnesota Vikings select….. a deep safety. Not the most exciting way to end round one, especially after trading all the way down from 12 to 32 but the Vikings take one of the best players left on the board, albeit at a not very valuable position. Much of what was said about the Bengals can apply to this pick though Cine does offer even more upside than Hill given his ability to play box safety as well as the FS spot. He doesn’t posses the agility to excel at FS though his 40 time at the combine may indicate he’s better quicker than we’ve given him credit for. But like Cincy, the Vikings drafted him because he’s a start and forget player at the back end of round one. Why this pick gets a lower grade than the Bengals selection is because of the trade down with the Lions. Some trade charts may value that trade higher than others and the theory that the drop off in talent from 10-32 is far smaller than 1-10 is something I mostly agree with. Of all the players the Vikings passed on by trading down, there aren’t too many they’d have been thrilled to get. But the Vikings have been stuck on the treadmill of 9-8, 10-7 for quite a while now and the trade down, nor drafting a starting calibre safety here, changes much of that. Thielen is starting to show his age, they’ve never been settled within their Oline and they could always use an extra pass rusher. They could have addressed any of those needs, even with a smaller trade down. Instead, they use the draft capital in this pick as well as the Lions second to touch up their secondary. These aren’t terrible moves but they also aren’t pushing this team off the treadmill.

And with that, R1 draft grades are done. As per usual, this piece is longer than I anticipated and thanks to some random life things getting in the way, is coming out almost a full week later than I intended. Still, I hope anyone who’s reading this get someone enjoyment or insight out of it. I do hammer trade value I know but given the direction of the league at the moment, I think maximising your draft capital, be that the Rams strategy of getting immediate contributors or loading up on R1 picks and being savvy enough to have draft board flexibility like the Eagles, is absolutely crucial to building a successful team. That just about does it, cheers.

The Final Mock Draft

We’ve almost made it to the draft. After months of speculation with everything heightening up the past couple weeks, we are in the final days before the 2022 NFL draft. With that, comes one final mock draft. In this mock, I’ll be discussing the picks I would make for each team as well as notes on what I think the team will actually do and whether I think a trade may occur. Note that I am not an NFL scout by any means. The opinions stated here are formed as a result of me being a draft obsessive where I’ve read, watched and listened to countless opinions over the course of the past couple months (including having memorised the entire draft position board). With that said, let’s dive into it.

Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars

Who they should pick: Aiden Hutchinson

This is a pretty simple one. I don’t buy into the recent Travon Walker hype as while he has shot up in sportsbook odds to be the first overall pick, the lack of production leads me to believe this is just lying season chatter. Hutch is the simple choice to make here and it is the correct one. He isn’t a perfect pass rushing prospect. In 2020 he was hurt and only played 3 games and his final game against Georgia this season was far from impressive. He’s reliant on inside rushes and has TRex arms, leading to some worry about his ability to win outside. Despite this, he put fantastic numbers this past season, has an extremely high motor and has all the intangibles you’d want from a first overall pick. It’s not a home run pick for the Jags by any means. They need Oline help, they still aren’t totally set at WR or DB, edge isn’t their biggest position of need. Despite this, it’s the safest pick to make given the question marks surrounding other prospects and it’s the choice that’s least likely to backfire on a new regime. Not an inspired choice, but the right one.

Pick 2: Detroit Lions

Who they should pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux

Whereas the first pick was a simple choice, this is a far more complicated and unclear choice. On paper, Kayvon is the second best prospect in this draft, He has 3 years of high level production with his most productive season coming this past season. His measurables are fantastic and your able to place him inside or outside on the edge in alignment. In this regard, he’s a far better prospect than Hutchinson. It’s a real possibility that Kayvon winds up becoming the best player in this draft and eclipses Hutchinson immediately. The reason he may fall in this draft is his perceived lack of a high motor and his apparent lack of love for football. Whether it’s true or not, these concerns are real for teams and it’s likely come draft day that Kayvon falls. In terms of a pure edge rushing presence though, there is no better prospect on paper in this draft and it would be stupid for teams to pass up on him here, especially for Detroit who need edge rushing presence. While I think they’ll take Travon (more on him later) Detroit do have other pressing needs. They’re in search for another WR to pair with Amon, they need DB help, they need some help at Guard, QB and LB. Plenty of needs and if Kayvon wasn’t here, I’d be attempting to trade down, even if it means not getting the proper value for it.

Pick 3: Houston Texans

Who they should pick: Ikem Ekwonu

Another hard choice to make, ultimately i’ve come around a bit on Ikem. He’s far from a perfect prospect as the hesitation for Houston has to be that he may end up at guard. He isn’t a great pass blocker currently and plays like a guard playing tackle. Why it’s the pick to make is simple. The Texans may have their QB of the future in Mills and while they’re okay at tackle, they could very easily place Ikem at RT while keeping Tunsil at LT and protect their young QB. At worst, Ikem will likely become a run blocking guard where length and ungodly quick feet set him up for pull and swing sets that allows him to carve a path for a run heavy attack. Were Ikem set to play Guard, this would be a no brainer pick. Instead, the risk of drafting a tackle who winds up playing guard at 3 is a little worrisome but despite that, it’s the right choice to make for Houston, especially after the recent news regarding Evan Neal.

Pick 4: New York Jets (huge trade down candidate)

Who they should pick: Ahmad Gardner

A pick the Jets are going to hate having to make (assuming they are unable to trade down), the Jets take one of the two top CB’s in this draft class. Gardner is a fantastic prospect, having never allowed a TD in his 3 year CFB career and allowed just 122 yards in 14 games in 2022. That’s about as much as you can ask from a CB prospect with the only critique levelled at him being a lack of zone coverage played. This isn’t something that should worry the Jets as Gardner has the measurables to play zone comfortably, with only his lack of burner speed being the only cause for concern there. As a press corner, he’s the best CB of the class as he’s incredibly physical at the LOS being both long and strong. Likewise, his technique is great, with only a slight tendency to play tall being his one drawback. The only reason this isn’t a slam dunk pick for the Jets is that they have other pressing needs. Certainly WR is on their mind, they could use some more edge presence as well as addressing LB and DB needs.  I’m sure they’d love to parlay this pick into a future first but will likely be unable to receive the proper value unless a QB needy team gets desperate. Despite all this, Gardner is the best scheme fit for them and is one of the top prospects of this class where he should be a plug and play starter.

Pick 5: New York Giants (prime trade down candidate)

Who they should take: Charles Cross/Evan Neal

This pick is split due to the latest news about Evan Neal’s medicals. Apparently there is cause for concern regarding his knee health and two teams have taken him off their board entirely. Prior to this news, Neal seemed like the obvious pick for a team perpetually stuck trying to fix their Oline. Assuming those reports are correct, Neal is off the board here for the Giants and instead, Charles Cross takes his place. This isn’t an ideal scenario as Cross wasn’t good his junior season before really piecing it together this past senior year. There’s real cause for concern regarding his ability to run block and he wasn’t perfect in pass protection despite playing a pretty comfortable schedule of teams for Mississippi State. He does however project to fill the Giants need of a true LT with Andrews playing on the right side of the line. His measurables are great as he has the typical length and size you’d want in a starting LT. If Neal is healthy, I’d still pick him instead of Cross as the consistent production and measurables are there for him. But if that’s not the case, then Cross should do the trick (for lack of a better option) for the Giants first pick.

Pick 6: Carolina Panthers

Who they should take: Evan Neal

Stating the obvious here but the Panthers are desperate for a QB. The lack of draft capital is a killer and while there are no true first round QB prospects in this class, they will be forced into taking one instead of trying to rebuild the Oline and focusing on solving their play caller issues the following year. As such, they will likely reach and take either Pickett or Willis though they should likely roll the dice here and take Neal. As stated above, Neal (assuming he's healthy) is a quality LT prospect. He’s played a top tier D1 schedule, has played at multiple positions along the Oline and will absolutely move people in the run game. The one drawback with him is that his knees may be shot and if that’s the case, then I’d be looking at trading down, gathering more draft capital and perhaps look at addressing guard later in the first round or start of the second round as a piece for the future. If they make the desperation play and take Pickett, they’ll be throwing in a prospect who may surpass Darnold but won’t likely attain a career resembling a top 10 player at the position and run the risk of being attached to someone who’ll likely be gone from the team after 3 or 4 years.

Pick 7: New York Giants

Who they should take: Travon Walker

The Giants would love to trade out here assuming the board has fallen this way as while Travon is still on the board here, I don’t believe the Giants love the idea of taking a project edge who’s likely going to need 2-3 seasons of development time. Despite this, Travon is the pick as while Stingley could be a player that replaces Bradbury after next year, edge is a more valuable position and Travon offers the upside Rashan Gary did a couple seasons ago. As an athlete, Walker is a rare breed of athlete as he’s a long 275 pounds who has top tier speed and explosiveness who could make for a powerful inside edge rusher. That’s about the start and end of the compliments for Walker. For the Giants, your drafting an athlete if you take him and hoping he blossoms into a football player as his production isn’t anything memorable despite playing on an elite Georgia defence. Compared to the numbers Kayvon and Hutchinson put up, Walker’s stats are pedestrian and he did little his past two seasons prior. This pick speaks more to the lack of overall talent in this class rather than the talent of Walker himself as there are few other sensible picks to make with who’s on the board. Hamilton is incredibly talented for instance but a safety that high is dicey. Realistically, the smartest pick here may be Jordan Davis but again, picking a DL here so high just isn’t feasible for someone outside of a prospect like Suh. As such, why not roll the dice on Walker here and hope your able to churn out a prospect that would cost you an incredible amount of money in free agency.

Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons (they absolutely have to trade down here)

Who they should take: Garett Wilson

The first WR goes off the board and it’s not Drake London, what a surprise. It’s almost essential that the Falcons trade out of this pick and accumulate any assets they can. There isn’t a single position that they don’t need to address with the most pressing being QB, Oline, CB and WR. Playing by the rules of no trades, I’ve chosen instead for the Falcons to take a WR here and hope that Mariotta is capable of keeping them afloat, at least for a season. While someone like Stingley or Hamilton would be a tempting choice, I’d be looking at Oline first and if the top tackle prospects are gone, moving on to WR and hoping to help your QB of the future (be that a trade for Baker or Jimmy or a rookie QB the following draft). That’s why its Wilson off the board first as he’s an incredibly versatile receiver, capable of playing any position they need him to. Given how they used Patterson last year, there’s no reason to think that the Falcons aren’t capable of using Wilson in a similar manner, albeit in a more WR friendly manner. As a receiver, he’s incredibly quick and nimble with some great route running to pair with a great catch radius. His flaws are shown in his lack of size. At 6 foot and 183 pounds, he lacks the ability to beat press coverage when jammed and if he’s going to be a consistent starter at the X spot, he’s going to need to be better at beating press coverage. Still, under the right team, he projects to be a versatile weapon that ATL would love to pair with Kyle Pitts.

Pick 9: Seattle Seahawks:

Who they should pick: Derek Stingley Jr

An incredibly risky pick, Stingley has all the makings of a boom or bust prospect. When we last saw him on that great 2019 LSU team, he was a ball hawking corner who although he allowed some yards, also snatched a bunch of picks. The guy is an incredible athlete who could be used in some unconventional ways in special teams or even some rare offensive sets if a team is so inclined. He’s also someone you can leave in man coverage and let the rest of your team sort itself out. The risk is the lack of production the past two years. That LSU team has been garbage but Stingley put up some uninspired performances in the select few games we saw him play (just 10 games the past two years). This is a risky pick that once again speaks to what this draft class is showing us. For a team like Seattle however, this could be the pick that helps them fix the disasters of the previous trade decisions by getting a potential superstar CB who they’ll set and forget about for the next 5 or 6 years. There also isn’t anyone left on the board they should be dying to grab.

Pick 10: New York Jets

Who they should take: Drake London

I have been opposed to making this pick for the past month and here I am making it, go figure. The Jets having already addressed CB in their previous pick, now add a pure X receiver threat to help out their young QB. London is a big bodied receiver who can make any and every catch in contested coverage. While an inability to consistently get separation can spell doom for WR’s (see Harry, Nkeal), London lead all of CFB this past season with contested catches and has premier route running ability. He’s also a strong bodied receiver who isn’t going to fear any press corners and will likely demolish them in run blocking. The only real fault in his game is the lack of speed. For a first round receiver, your expecting someone who can take the top off a defence on occasion and that just isn’t London’s game. Most passes going his way are going to be contested and Zack Wilson may throw some errant interceptions by putting up some prayer balls, just hoping London can come down with it. If they scheme correctly however, London can be a powerful receiving force and is likely the best possession receiver of the class. The Jets clearly want someone more established given all the trade rumours but if they aren’t able to get a deal done, they could do a whole lot worse than London.

Pick 11: Washington Commanders

Who they should take: Jameson Williams

An unconventional pick here for Washington, the consensus seems to be that they should take Kyle Hamilton if he’s available or maybe even chance it with Willis and have him on the bench while Wentz runs the squad for a season. Although neither of these are bad selections as Hamilton would fit that team perfectly and contribute straight away, getting a safety here when there’s other needs on the board isn’t making the most of their draft position. Likewise, although Willis is perhaps the best QB prospect of this class, in any other year, Willis wouldn’t even be a first-round selection and I wouldn’t spend a first on him when there’s options like Jimmy or Baker available. Instead, I’m opting to get Mclaurin a great dance partner and make that WR corps something to be feared. Jameson Williams is a awesome WR prospect who has insane burner speed and has the versatility to line up anywhere on the field. While he best projects as a hybrid slot receiver instead of a pure X or Y, I think Williams has the ability to develop and thrive if he isn’t the focus of the offence. Due to the danger Mclaurin brings, Williams will receive plenty of single coverage looks where a motion heavy offence can have him wreaking havoc in the middle of the field as he stretches out safeties and nickel corners. Washington certainly have other needs and I wouldn’t blame them for addressing those instead of reinforcing an already solid position group. But you can never have enough receiving threats and the stress Williams is going to impose on opposing defences is just too much to turn down here.

Pick 12: Minnesota Vikings

Who they should take: Trent McDuffie

Every man and their dog has McDuffie going here and it isn’t changing here. Playing a zone heavy scheme, McDuffie is just a perfect fit for that defence as Peterson shouldn’t be viewed as a reliable CB for the future and they need someone who can start at nickel before taking over as a proper no2 corner. Mcduffie is coming off a fantastic season, allowing just 111 off of 36 targets and hasn’t given up a TD his past two seasons. While he can’t really win as a press corner due to his size and lack of strength, his speed and agility allow him to play zone coverage anywhere on the field, be that outside, nickel corner or if they’re in need, at FS. This isn’t an exciting pick, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Sota take someone like Jermain Johnson or Hamilton but McDuffie just appears to be too good a fit for them to pass up.

Pick 13: Houston Texans

Who they should take: Kyle Hamilton

Finally Hamilton goes off the board. Once projected as a top 5 pick, Hamilton has dropped off everyone’s board as the excitement of his playmaking ability has dropped off and the fear of taking a safety within the top 10 sets in. While it isn’t an incredibly valuable position, we’ve seen what a dominant safety can do in the league and there’s the potential for Hamilton to become an all pro safety as his game speed is remarkable. At 6’4 and 220 pounds, he also isn’t a small bodied safety either. He’s a guy who’s able to cover top TE’s whilst also being a ball hawking DB all while almost never missing a tackle. Yes he head hunts and yeah, he’s never going to sweep in and stuff the run game. But in a pass heavy era, Hamilton is someone who can help shore up a lot of the Texans weaknesses in the secondary. Ideally, I think the Texans would love for someone like Kayvon to fall here or maybe even one of the top WR prospects. But assuming those guys go, I think the Texans look for best available and Hamilton is the best on the board.

Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens

Who they should take: Jordan Davis

Another chalk pick that everyone is mocking, Davis is an absolute monster on the defensive line and is a perfect fit for how the ravens like to play defence. He isn’t an every down player, at least not at the moment but on the snaps he does play, he inhales opposing guards and is probably the best interior defender of this class. And it’s no wonder why given his 6’3 and 341 pound frame. This isn’t a sexy pick and the ravens could look at someone like Booth Jr or Pitre given depth concerns they have at CB though Davis is likely to have a far greater impact on the game than either of those two for Baltimore.

Pick 15: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick: Jermaine Johnson 2nd

Recent reports about the health of Devin Lloyd has led to a switch of this pick. Previously, it seemed obvious that Philly would use one of their 3 picks on Lloyd given the need for a LB and he’s the best one of the class without question. However, with the recent reports that some teams are taking him off their boards. As such, the Eagles pivot and take Johnson instead. A nobody on a quality defence prior to this year, Johnson is the guy who’s stock we’ve seen skyrocket after an impressive senior bowl performance. Whilst the prior lack of production would appear to be a huge red flag, being able to dominate other NFL ready prospects does bode well for his future in the league and we can’t ignore his 14 sacks this past season. Technique wise, he’s fantastic with a wide variety of edge setting moves that he uses to make up for overall unimpressive athletic numbers. Edge isn’t a pressing need for Philly, and maybe they clear Lloyd’s medicals but assuming that’s a real concern, they’re better off reinforcing the edge and adding depth as they so often do. Other picks they might consider here are Nakobe Dean and Karlaftis however Dean doesn’t present any threat in penetrating the defensive line and Karlaftis lacks the upside most teams are chasing after in an edge.

Pick 16: New Orleans Saints

Who they should pick: Bernhard Raimann.

Realistically, if Willis falls this far, you’d expect the Saints to jump on him. But given the Chargers are picking next, I would be shocked to see the Saints pass up on Raimann before revisiting Willis at 19. The Saints have made it known they after a tackle and WR to help Jaemis out. With Rainmann, they get their LT spot with Ramzchyk solidifying the right side and perhaps Jaemis winds up performing well enough to keep the starter job. Raimann is a decent tackle prospect. He’s inexperienced at the position, a bit undersized both in strength and arm length but he’s a quick moving tackle who uses his smaller frame to his advantage in getting the first hit on opposing edge rushers. There’s also the feeling that where he’s at now is just his floor given he’s only been an OT for two seasons. It isn’t a sure fire pick as while some teams may perceive his current ability to be his floor, there’s every chance he just isn’t ready for the leap in competition playing pro bowl edge rushers instead of non SEC CFB competition. Still, they need a LT and Rainmann is the best on the board. They can address WR in the later rounds and although someone like Wyatt is still on the board, the lack of tackle prospects after Rainmann makes this an obvious choice.

Pick 17: Los Angeles Chargers (still San Diedgo to me dammit)

Who they should pick: Devonte Wyatt

If the top 4 tackle prospects are the board come pick 18, the Chargers are going to be fuming. By far and away their most pressing need is a LT to pair with Slater but with all of them gone, they address their next biggest need in DL. Wyatt is an imposing force on the defensive line as he generated 17 pressures this past season while notching up 4 sacks. His explosiveness is second to none for a DL and he’s capable of lining up just about anywhere. The knock on Wyatt is that he just isn’t physical at the line of scrimmage despite having the size to be a force. The chargers may want a more imposing DL like Travis Jones who’s a traditional run stuffer as opposed to a hybrid DL that may never develop into the black hole between the guards they may want. Given the health concerns around Penning (as well as inability to consistently pass protect), there are few better options for the Chargers here than Wyatt. Booth Jr is another option for them but given the division they’re in, a need for an instant playmaker is required if they have any hope to win out what’s become a shark tank of a division.

Pick 18: Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick: Treylon Burks/ Devin Lloyd

For the third straight season, Philly take a WR in the first round. As stated previously, Philly have other pressing needs, especially at LB. But Lloyd’s medicals are a major red flag and if he isn’t cleared then Burks is the pick to make here. This is certainly a risky pick for Philly given they aren’t unfamiliar to bad WR choices but if this is the year they decide on Hurts, a combination of Burks and Devonta Smith will certainly go a long away in figuring out if Hurts is the future for them or just a stop gap before trading up with all their draft picks the following year for a QB. As for Burks, he’s the WR everyone is sleeping on. As guys like Pickens and Sky Moore continue to skyrocket up people’s boards, Burks is the steady WR that’s being slept on. He’s played a proper D1 schedule and has 3 straight seasons of solid production with an 1100, 11 TD season just submitted. He’s a hefty 6’2, 225 pounds with burner speed and an ability to gain YAC like nobody’s business. The reason he’s being slept on is because despite possesing prototypical X receiver frame, he played primarily out of the slot for Arkansas. This is likely because he doesn’t have ideal route running as he isn’t good at sitting down on his routes. Still, these are things that can be taught as opposed to the combination of size and speed that few others in this class possess. With Smith being an unconventional shifty receiver, Burks adds a deep threat dynamism that Philly are missing and although they need a LB, Burks may be the safer pick here.

Pick 19: New Orleans Saints

Who they should pick: Malik Willis

Finally a QB goes off the board as the Saints see Willis fall into their lap just before the Steelers get a chance at him. As stated earlier in this piece, Willis is far from a perfect prospect. In a weak QB class, he’s seen as a developmental prospect with tremendous upside that could be a potential starter after a year of learning. Given however that the Saints have haemorrhaged their future to compete now, getting a QB in case Jaemis doesn’t work out is the safe thing to do. An uber athletic player, Willis has a rocket for an arm and the motor to go with it. He’s capable of launching 40 yard bombs whilst scrambling for his life as his pocket breaks down. His accuracy although a little hit and miss, is solid when he sets his feet and trusts himself to throw. His throwing motion isn’t slow or technically incorrect and he can dash downfield in an instant when required. Where Willis comes up short in his judgement. So often he threw ill advised throws that lead to incompletions or interceptions when he had an open receiver he could have thrown to for an easy completion. His pocket presence is also pretty awful as while he didn’t have a good offensive line, he made it so much worse by bailing from clean pockets and rarely stepped up in the pocket and made the tough throws. Willis is a developmental prospect who needs to sit for a year and learn from a veteran like Jaemis while the team does everything they can to refine his game and iron out his decision making. In that respect, the Saints are a perfect fit for him as they’re current starter was also known for his terrible thought process. They still a WR as who knows what the situation with Michael Thomas anymore but with no first round pick next year, the Saints would be crazy to pass up on the potential future of the franchise with their second first rounder this year.

Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers

Who they should pick: Trevor Penning

With Willis being snatched out of their grasp, the Steelers move onto addressing the issue of fixing their Oline. Penning is a hard nosed run heavy tackle prospect who’s raw on the pass protection. He’s an absolute monster in pushing around opposing edge rushers though he did so against subpar competition. Still, this should translate to the pro’s as he has a giant frame and the incredible size to go along with that frame. The major concern with penning is that he plays high in pass pro and has faced next to none in future NFL prospects. Still, with no tempting QB prospects left on the board, the Steelers do the wise thing here and address their biggest concern with the best available tackle prospect left on the board, even if that’s just bulldozing RT who may ultimately end up at guard.

Pick 21: New England Patriots

Who they should pick: George Karlaftis

This is another controversial pick for NE fans as they’re in dire need of both WR and CB. With the top prospects off the board in both those spots, NE settle for a plug and play edge. This past season, Karlaftis was a monster, producing 5 sacks, 14 hits and 35 hurreis which is more than some other edge rushers who’ve been picked before him. He’s incredibly strong and is able to line up anywhere along the edge, something I’m sure Bellicheck will love. His downside however is quite obvious and glaring. He is far from a premier athlete, something the NFL loves in R1. He carries below average length and isn’t quick off the jump. As such, his ceiling appears to be rather low for a first round pick and this is hindering his draft status despite producing some really fantastic numbers for Purdue. The ability to play him in a suite of roles is something Bellicheck will love with Karlaftis and although there’s players such as Booth jr, Lloyd or Pickens left on the board, the patriots will love a guy who’s able to contribute immediately and doesn’t carry as many question marks as some others left on the board. If not George, I could see NE going for Lloyd though again, the medicals may wipe him off the board here.

Pick 22: Green Bay Packers

Who they should pick: Sky Moore

Finally GB takes a weapon for Rodgers in the first round though in far from ideal circumstances. If the WR board resembles this come pick 22, it’s likely that GB trades out of this pick as they can quite easily grab another receiver with their 2nd first round pick. Still, given they are unable to trade in this mock, it’s Sky Moore who goes off the board here. Moore comes from the school of an incredibly shifty receiver who used his ability to force 26 missed tackles, tied for the best this past CFB season. Yes he played subpar competition but he isn’t a pure slot receiver either. He played the majority of his snaps at the X spot and posted 1291 yards for 10 scores this past season. Rodgers likely won’t be thrilled with this pick as I’m sure he’d prefer a receiver with a bigger catch radius who can play downfield with more regularity but this is the next best option for who’s left on the board. His ability elusiveness really is the best in the class and Rodgers shouldn’t have much trouble getting him the ball on short and intermediate routes where Moore will threaten to take it to the house after the catch. Other picks for GB here could be Olave or Pickens but neither offer the versatility that Moore has and he should be the pick if they don’t trade out.

Pick 23: Arizona Cardinals

Who they should take: Zion Johnson

We get our first pure guard board here at 23 as Zona look to protect their maybe face of the franchise in Muarry. Zion is a battle tested prospect, having 3 full years of starting at Guard for Boston college and improved significantly this past season, allowing just one pressure against that great Clemson defence. There’s next to no knocks on Zion’s game as he’s just as good at pass blocking as he is at run blocking. If you were to level a critique at his game, it’s that he doesn’t project an all pro guard. He’s set to be a day one starter who gets the job done but isn’t posting Quinton Nelson levels of highlights. This won’t be a popular pick for the Cardinals. They need help along the defensive line and could use another CB to shore up that shaky secondary. Still, with some concerns over Linderbaums arm size, Zion is as a safe a pick as you can get here with contributing immediately to a team looking to contend in a weaker NFC.

Pick 24: Dallas Cowboys

Who the should take: Tyler Linderbaum

Dallas get who I’ve wanted for them since the beginning in a plug and play C/G to fix the position that’s plagued Dallas since Leary/Fredrick left all those years ago. Whether he lines up at LG or takes over from Biadaz at C is largely irrelevant as he should be a significant upgrade at either spot. His arms are indeed quite short and he may struggle against some more defensive savvy teams as if Dallas do shift him to guard, he may face the same issues Connor Williams has had. Despite this, Linderbaum has 3 great years of production, never giving up more than a single sack his past 3 seasons. He’s a solid pass blocker and a fantastic run blocker, especially in the zone blocking scheme Iowa ran. Not so coincidentally, this is what Dallas run and given the investment in Zeke and the lack of run blocking that troubled the Cowboys last season, Linderbaum offers something so few other prospects available offer in an ability to be a day one starter that will thrive under the current Oline system. This is a no brainer pick should he fall this far and I’d be surprised if Dallas pick anyone else if he’s available to them here.

Pick 25: Buffalo Bills

Who they should pick: David Ojabo

It’s a shame Ojabo snapped his achilles during his pro day as he was on pace to be one of the fastest rising prospects of this class. Possessing some top-notch feet, length and flexibility, Ojabo is a prospect who if he didn’t get injured, likely goes 10 picks higher in this class. He only has one year of production but in that single season, he posted 11 sacks and 24 hurries, better than Walker, his contemporary. All the traits you’d want in a first round edge rusher is here for Ojabo, there isn’t any glaring concerns regarding his athleticism. The concerns beyond the injury, is his lack of experience. He’s brand new to the sport and cannot do anything at the moment beyond play as an edge rusher who’s sole responsibility is to fly to the QB. That’s a significant drawback, no question but for the Bills who continue to be SB contenders, the ability to grab someone who could potentially become an upper tier edge rusher this late in the draft could be a steal. They don’t need him to be a day one starter, he likely won’t be contributing player for them till the middle of the season but if he’s able to get healthy and learn from that stacked Bills Dline, he’s going to be a problem for opposing QB’s come playoff time. There are other needs for the Bills, certainly they could take Booth jr here and shore up that other side of the field. They could also look at Lewis Cine and add a safety capable of playing in and out of the box. But in top tier QB conference, having an extra edge rusher who would’ve been a top 15 pick prior to the injury feels like it’s too good to pass up.

Pick 26: Tennessee Titans

Who they should pick: Chris Olave

Another WR off the board in a first round just filled to the brim with WR talent, Olave could potentially be one of the bigger steals of this draft if he falls this far down the board. A fantastic route runner, Olave is as reliable as they come, posting just 5 drops off 101 targets. He’s also had steady production for 3 straight seasons, posting double digit TD’s in two of those seasons. AJ Brown unfortunately wasn’t healthy for them last year and there would be some concerns that Olave plays too similar a style to him but they need WR help and there’s nothing wrong with doubling down on a guy who’d thrive opposite someone who takes the pressure off him. In a lot of respects, Olave is the opposite of Sky Moore as he cannot elude tackles to save his life as he instead relies on his route running and great catch radius to come down with balls. This shouldn’t be a concern for the Titans as with Henry in the backfield and a WR duo of Olave and Brown, teams will be forced to single cover far more often than they’d like, allowing Olave to go up and get some contested one on one catches with ease. The downsides for this pick is the aforementioned lack of dynamism. Tanehill is going to have to thrown him the ball in coverage and he can’t rely on YAC to help move the ball downfield. In some respects, this may make the titans offence predictable and is a legitimate cause for concern. With Henry in the backfield however, it makes life far more difficult for opposing defences to double cover either receiver and if Tanehill can make some throws, Olave should thrive in this offence.

Pick 27: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who they should pick: Kenyon Green

Brady is back for another season and with that comes some protection on the offensive line. Another unsexy pick as no one loves to draft a guard in R1, Green isn’t the best guard prospect in this draft and nor is he the second one. He’s not great at utilising his hands and his footwork leaves something to be desired. However, as a bulldozing guard who’s able to play every position, Tampa gains a guy who you can plug in play in any number of spots when injuries arise along the offensive line. He isn’t a game changer that will propel Tampa to another SB but he is a solid contributor that Tampa needs in order to protect their 43 year old QB. Certainly they could look at someone like Booth jr given the lack of depth in their secondary. They could also get Travis Jones as someone to pair up with Vea in that 4-3 defence. But Brady is this offence and their hope and dreams rest on being able to protect him, thus making Green the pick here.

Pick 28: Green Bay Packers

Who they should pick: Andrew Booth Jr

Booth finally comes off the board here as he slides a bit more than most people would probably project. There’s a reason for this as he got targeted a lot more than you’d like for a R1 CB prospect, giving up 326 yards and a couple TD’s. This was also his first year starting and it showed, missing 11 tackles as he launched himself with reckless abandon far too often. Where Booth thrives is as an athlete. He’s a solid 6’0 CB who is about as agile as any corner in this class. This matches his length and explosiveness as he was able to close down on receivers with his top tier footwork. Some might argue GB don’t need the secondary help with Jaire Alexander already playing CB1, they’d be better served slotting Booth over in the second corner spot and moving Stokes into the slot. They could also simply use the depth at the position as they struggled at times last year once Alexander got hurt. At pick 28, Booth is a great pickup for them and although they have other needs, sometimes depth is what’s needed to make that extra postseason push.

Pick 29: Kansas City Chiefs

Who they should take: Christian Watson

This is another nightmare scenario for a team with 6 WR’s going off the board before KC can finally choose their Tyreek Hill replacement. As such, this pick is a bit more of a “best of the rest”. While some football circles are hyping Watson up, he’s anonymous as a R1 prospect with most seeing him going to somewhere like Chicago early in day 2. The reason for this is pretty clear when examining him. He’s an incredibly raw prospect with a high drop rate and an inability to win contested catch situations, he’s the definition of a prospect as opposed to day one starter. Which if that’s the case, why not take Pickens some may ask. There’s two big reasons Watson would be the better pick than Pickens for KC. The first is health. Pickens across the past 2 seasons has barley played any football, logging less than a full season combined. The second is speed as if KC need a burner to replace Hill, Watson will do some that straight away. WR’s shouldn’t able to be this fast at 6’4 as he’s top both end quick and has an immediate burst off the snap. This will make him a nightmare against some zone coverages as you just cannot afford to give him an inch of room. All his measurables are sky high and if KC are willing to patient, might very well get a guy who can replace some of what they lost in Hill, even if it doesn’t come in his rookie year. It’s not an ideal pick, certainly KC will be hoping some of the other top WR talent fall to them and they may even risk it on Pickens as opposed to Watson. But they need someone to replace Hill and Watson is the best fit for how they play offence.

Pick 30: Kansas City Chiefs

Who they should take: Travis Jones

Once again, a far from ideal pick for the chiefs as they’d have loved for Booth to fall here. Instead, they opt to fixing their Dline and taking the next best prospect after the two Georgia players in that of Jones. An absolute unit of a prospect, Jones is your prototypical strength is king type nose tackle. He’s far from a refined player as he stays tall far too often leading him to be more ineffective than you’d expect from a guy his size. He doesn’t offer KC much more than as a space filling DT but that’s exactly what the chiefs need besides a CB. If they can teach him how to get lower on a more regular basis, he’s going to be a productive player for many a year as it’s not every day you get someone with Jones’s size and strength this late on the board. Chiefs fans won’t love this pick but this is a thin Dline class and if they pass on Jones here, they may not get another chance to address it properly.

Pick 31: Cincinnati Bengals

Who they should pick: Tyler Smith

Playing as a starting LT for Tulsa, Smith projects to end up playing guard in the NFL as he just isn’t good enough at pass blocking to ever trust him on an island. Playing a soft schedule, Smith only gave up 2 sacks on the season and just 5 hurries. Although this quite good, he struggled against the only difficult teams he played in that of Oklahoma State and Ohio State. Where Smith thrives and why Cincy should be excited to get him is that he’s a fantastic run blocker. Although not as nimble as some of the other Oline prospects in this class, few possess the sheer power he has and his ability to move guys off the ball in run blocking sets is second to none. He may not be a day one starter for Cincy. He’s certainly more of a project than you’d like out of a first round pick but that’s just how this draft class is shaping up. For a team with not many holes to plug, adding an extra piece to help protect burrow is a necessity and although Smith isn’t a great prospect, he’s one who should be able to come in and make an impact.

Pick 32: Detroit Lions

Who they should pick: Devin Lloyd

After a dramatic free fall, Lloyd finally comes off the board here at the final pick of the first round. Even if his medicals are somewhat concerning, Lloyd is good enough to take a risk here as he’s by far and away the best and most complete LB on the board. Although he doesn’t excel in anyone one area, he’s capable of playing in any scheme a team could ask from him. He’s able to beat blocks better than Nkobe Dean, he’s able to cover almost as well as Dean, can rush the passer as well as Leo Chenal and has the ability to light up opposing players like Christain Harris. His sole weakness, if you can call it that, is a few missed tackle, charting in at around a 12% missed tackle rate. This isn’t a cause for concern however as this is around what most other top LB prospects in this class hit with the exception of Quay Walker. Detroit could look at other positions such as WR with Pickens or QB with whoever among the class you like but these are far riskier picks than Lloyd who’s a plug and play starting LB. Another boring pick to tail end the first round but given he’s only slipped this far due to some injury concerns, Detroit would be adding a top 20 prospect with the last pick of the round, a great value grab.

That does it. Thanks for reading however much of this as you did. I wrote all of this in the span of two days so if some of it comes across as a bit hurried, it’s because it is. Still, I hope you get something out of reading this and learn something you might not have otherwise known. Cheers