NFL R1 draft grades
In a draft where no one was in on a QB and we all speculated who would reach and a day two prospect in round one, we actually saw a draft that was both chaotic and somewhat reasonable. This isn’t to say however that we didn’t receive an incredibly entertaining draft that lived up to all the expectations placed on it as the once again, we were riveted to see names get called out. It’s easy to understand just how absurd the whole process is as it’s likely that half the players in round one will likely go on achieve a modest amount of success with many never receiving an extension from the team that drafted them. But the beauty of draft day is that we all ignore reason and are instead united in optimism. It’s the only weekend of the year that every fanbase enters full of hope instead of dread or frustration. Unfortunately, by the end of day one, many fan bases return to frustration and wish for their owners to sell the team or for their GM’s and coaches to move on to greener pastures. This is what we’re here to parse. Which teams theoretically thrived and which floundered more than a fish in the fake Miami Grand Prix Sea. With this inspiring and motivational spiel finished, onto the picks.
**** Note that the grade criteria involves the player chosen as well as the value of the pick
Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars
Player chosen: Travon Walker (Edge)
Grade: C+
Balke actually did it. Entering January, Walker entered as a prospect that wasn’t even considered a day one pick on some mock drafts. But the combine and pro day saw Walker’s draft stock skyrocket as his elite measurables lit up GM’s eyes as they saw a potential all pro edge if they are able to match his production to his athletic traits. If round one is all about measurables then Walker is the definition of a round one pick. There should be legitimate concerns over his production. While he wasn’t used as a pure pass rusher on that loaded Georgia defence, he was still unable to put up numbers similar to other trait over production rushers. As such, the pick gets a C+. It’s a pick that’s high risk and high reward. You could argue that this has led the jags to the predicament they currently find themselves in and the lack of stability in coaching leads reminds me a little of their Donte Fowler pick. Given they had the first pick, they also could have picked literally any other player on the board, including “safer” edge rushers such at Hutchinson or Kayvon. But they could also have themselves a player that lives up to the hype of top tier rushers of draft class past such as the Bosa brothers and Myles Garett.
Pick 2: Detroit Lions
Player chosen: Aiden Hutchinson (Edge)
Grade: A
The Lions get their hometown kid after all. Initially projected as a top 3 pick entering 2022, Hutchinson aced the vetting process with teams as they fell in love with his attitude and high motor. As a prospect, Hutch is as safe as it gets for this edge rusher class. Despite possessing short arms, he has everything else you could ask. While you can’t ask him to drop into coverage like Walker, his production this past CFB season was top notch and his floor projects to be a player who gets you 8 sacks a season. His ceiling isn’t as high as Walker or Kayvon but for a team with a strong culture who’s trying to complete a rebuild without a clear cut QB, Hutchinson is a perfect fit.
Pick 3: Houston Texans
Player chosen: Derek Stingley Jr (CB)
Grade: A-
A superstar in 2019, were he draft eligible his first season, he likely would’ve been picked this high if not higher. Since that outstanding season however, he’s treaded water with some extremely limited appearances the next couple seasons. Despite this, the Texans feel confident that he’s over his injuries and is ready to return to form as a generational prospect at CB. This pick only gets a A- as while he could be a pro bowl starter day one, the lack of playing time the past couple seasons has to be concerning, especially with someone like Sauce Gardner still on the board. He likely wouldn’t have been available with the Texans next pick but like the Jags, this does seem like a risky choice for a top 5 pick. The Texans also passed on filling other needs such as edge, WR and OT but if Stingley can reproduce his 2019 form, this will be a home run pick for a team in desperate need of talent.
Pick 4: New York Jets
Player chosen: Amad “Sauce” Gardner (CB)
Grade: A+
The first A+ given through 4 picks, this was a great pick by the Jets, even if they didn’t want to make it. Sauce is a start and forget type prospect with 3 years’ worth of production that netted 0 TD’s allowed. He hasn’t played any zone coverage which may concern some but as a press heavy corner, you’re looking at a lockdown prospect. He carries no injury concerns, has the traits to match the production and fills a pressing need for the team. While they don’t address WR here, they knew there was every chance to get the first or second one with their second pick.
Pick 5: New York Giants
Player chosen: Kayvon Thibodeaux (Edge)
Grade: A+
Unfortunately for the other NFC East teams, the Giants get who many considered to be the best pass rusher in this class. Projected to be the first overall pick even as far back as the end of the 2020 CFB season, the Giants acquire someone who possess elite level of production combined with top tier traits. He can play both inside and outside, has a bevvy of moves and will slide in as a day one starter. The single risk this pick carries is not acing the vetting process for some teams but his talent and production match only Sauce Gardner in this class and for that, receives an A+ as they got a potential first overall pick, four spots later.
Pick 6: Carolina Panthers
Player chosen: Ikem Ekwonu (OT)
Grade: A
There was temptation to give this pick an A+ as the Panthers avoided making a desperation grab at QB and instead opted for the reasonable choice to rebuild the Oline. Despite that, Ikem does run some risk of inevitably playing guard as while he’s the most elite run blocker of this class, his pass blocking game still needs some refinement. Regardless, this is an outstanding pick given Ikem was considered by many to be a top 3 pick and was once favourited to go first overall. Carolina may not have solved their QB problem but much like the Lions last year, they are focusing on building a team that a young QB can thrive from, instead of hoping for a generational talent that carries them past poor surrounding talent. Ideally, they’d have traded down given their lack of draft capital but taking their choice of the top tackle prospects is still a great decision.
Pick 7: New York Giants
Player chosen: Evan Neal (OT)
Grade: A+
After nabbing potentially the best edge rusher of the class, the Giants come back two picks later and grab one of the top tackle prospects. Possessing a gigantic frame, Neal is the most well rounded OT in this class as he’s a bulldozing force in the run game and a stout wall when pass blocking. He does carry some concerns as some injuries limited him at times (with some teams reporting concerning medicals) and he falls over on his blocks far, far too often. Despite this, the Giants have to be thrilled with how their first two picks have gone, getting two players they should be eager to sign onto a contract extension in 4/5 years’ time and maximising their draft value.
Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons
Player chosen: Drake London (WR)
Grade: C
We finally arrive at a contentious pick. While the Walker pick isn’t universally loved, it’s at least understood by everyone why they made the pick. This isn’t so universal with the Falcons pick as while they were in desperate need for WR given the Ridley suspension, many including myself were surprised that London was their choice. London thrives deep as despite possessing “slow” round 1 speed, he is without a doubt the best contested catch receiver in this class. While this could prove useful next to athletic freak Kyle Pitts, many thought they’d have opted for a more versatile receiver, someone who could be used in a multitude of ways to help out whoever they choose to start at QB. London may prove himself worthy of this pick but you can’t help but be skeptical of the team fit here. There are certainly some who love this pick and see the all jump ball squad ATL is building but I think London is best suited to a more established QB who’s able to place the ball in his vicinity rather than relying getting wide open separation to make up for ball placement. This pick also lacks value as they are a team desperate for talent all over the board and it was kind of shocking they didn’t trade out of this pick, even if it meant not receiving “equal” value.
Pick 9: Seattle Seahawks
Player Chosen: Charles Cross (OT)
Grade: A+
Go figure that the one time the seahawks take a quality offensive line prospect high in the draft is when they no longer have a franchise QB. Head scratching judgement aside, this is a fantastic pick for the Seahawks as they grab the last of the top 3 tackle prospects. Cross is a player who thrives in pass blocking sets as he played in an air raid offence that rarely saw him run block. This is also the only concern regarding Cross as while he’s a capable run blocker, he’s far more inexperienced at it than the other two OT taken before him. It’s also not an ideal fit given Seattle’s love of running it on first and second down before throwing a prayer on third and 8. Still, it’s hard to argue with just how good a pick this is as getting a potential franchise LT so late is just fantastic value and when Seattle does eventually find their Wilson replacement, he should receive far better protection than Rusty ever did.
Pick 10: New York Jets
Player Chosen: Garett Wilson (WR)
Grade: A+
After a weeks’ worth of chatter about a potential Deebo Samuel trade, the Jets “settle” and opt for Ohio State standout, Garett Wilson. While the criticism around London is his lack of speed and versatility, Wilson possesses none of those issues. He has 4.38 speed and can line up all over the field, be that at as a prototypical X receiver or in the slot. Wilson was atop of my WR rankings and although getting a deal done for Deebo would’ve been ideal, drafting Wilson and having him on a cheap 4 year deal is the next best option. The weaknesses Wilson lacks are the inverse of London. He lacks size and is going to struggle to beat jam coverage if he doesn’t bulk up a bit. The Jets really wanted to trade out of one of their picks and while they were unable to, I think they adjusted to the draft board quite well and got two top tier prospects with their picks and would later address yet another need in the first round. A clear A+ and for the first time in a while, both New York teams have much to be optimistic about.
Pick 11: New Orleans Saints (traded with the Washington Commanders)
Player Chosen: Chris Olave (WR)
Grade: D-
Before you get outraged and blabber on about how Olave could be just as good as his running mate and that the Saints needed a WR to pair with Michael Thomas (if he ever comes back and plays) know that this is both a grade on the player as well as the value of the pick. Olave is a fine player who although I wasn’t as high on as others, should have been considered a first-round pick in league desperate for WR talent. As a prospect, Olave deserves a B/B+ as he’s a fantastic route runner with incredibly reliable hands and could likely be the most pro ready receiver to start this season. Where this pick falters however is in the value. The Saints gave up an absolute haul to acquire an additional first and gave up even more picks to move up from 16 to 11 in order to acquire Olave. This is horrific value as they didn’t acquire a QB, the one position potentially worth giving up all they did for this pick. The only reason this isn’t an F is because Olave should turn out to be a productive pro and Jameis showed glimpses of at least being a capable enough starter for a potential playoff push in a weaker NFC.
Pick 12: Detroit Lions (traded with the Minnesota Vikings)
Player Chosen: Jameson Williams (WR)
Grade: A
After 0 trades in the first 10 picks, we get back-to-back trades to acquire receivers with Alabama standout Jameson Williams flying off the board to Detroit. In order to achieve this, the Lions had to trade up from 32 with their divisional rivals, sacrificing a top 3rd round pick and moving down 10 places in the second round with a pick swap. This is an absolute heist by the Lions as moving up 20 spots in the first typically requires far more draft capital. In doing so, the Lions get the best graded speedster in the class. Possessing legitimate 4.3 speed (although this is speculative as his ACL injury prevented him from running at the combine), Williams is the second coming of Will Fuller who hopefully won’t carry his injury history. He may not project as a pure X receiver but the Lions get themselves someone who can blow the top off a defence and will force safeties to hang back in coverage be it in the slot where he played at Alabama or on the oft occasion, at the X. Injury concerns and a lack of refinement in his overall game limits the grade to an A as while the trade value was fantastic, there is the real risk that his career plays out exactly like Fuller’s did. Still, through 2 picks the Lions get themselves the edge rusher with the highest floor as well as a high ceiling WR. Not a bad haul given the Stafford trade kind of backfired on them.
Pick 13: Philadelphia Eagles (trade with the Texans)
Player chosen: Jordan Davis (DL)
Grade: A-
Another pick, another trade as Philly moves up a couple spots to get ahead of the Ravens and take Georgia behemoth Jordan Davis. Although not technically the heaviest member of this class, Davis is about as big as it gets along the defensive line and is a true freak athlete, running a 4.78 40 at 341 pounds. Many are pegging this as an A+ pick and I certainly love Davis as a player. He doesn’t get the A+ grade from me because it’s tough to give that rating for a player who doesn’t play that often. Davis has serious conditioning issues and would gas late in games despite a limited snap count. If Philly are going to get the most out of him, it’ll be as a rotation NT who likely plays the early downs and gets a breather on pass rushing sets. That’s perfectly fine but drafting someone so early who isn’t an every down player currently does limit what I can give this pick.
Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens
Player chosen: Kyle Hamilton (S)
Grade: A
I was incredibly tempted to give this pick an A+ as the value is fantastic as Hamilton was once considered a top 3-5 pick in this class and didn’t start falling until his lacklustre 40 time at the combine. As a prospect, i’m sure the ravens are hoping he’s the second coming of Ed Reed as despite the 40 time, he possess great “game” speed, consistently darting across the field to break up passes or stuff RB’s in the box. He joins a Ravens squad that was swamped with injuries across the board last year, especially in their secondary and his addition should make Jimmy Smith and Co’s life significantly easier. Why Hamilton fell to the Ravens, and why the pick only receives an A here is that there is some hesitancy about just how good a zone safety he can be. The lack of 40 speed isn’t something that can be ignored and while he may overcome this, I think he projects better as a hybrid safety who spends some time in the box and other times covering opposing TE’s. His ability to cover receivers is questionable and is what stops me from giving Baltimore a straight A+ despite the great value.
Pick 15: Houston Texans
Player Chosen: Kenyon Green (OG)
Grade: B
The first guard comes off the board finally as the Texans after re-signing Tunsil this offseason, look to add another piece in helping surprising rookie standout Davis Mills. Drafting a guard in the first round is always going to be a mixed bag and I initially had this pick graded a lot lower before coming around on it. Taking a guard in the top half of first round when they aren’t a talent like Quinton Nelson can be a tough ask. They aren’t blocking the premier edge rushers and guys like Green lack the versatility to be used on swing and counter plays. But few things annoy a QB more than a collapsing pocket between the guards and so while Green isn’t a value pick, he is a necessary one. Possessing average measurebles, Green truly shines as a line drive pushing guard who should be a day one starter even if he projects to have limited upside. Perhaps I’m not giving Green nor the Texans enough credit on this pick but with players such as Burks, Penning (to play RT), Linderbaum and Jermain Johnson still on the board, it’s hard to love this pick when more valuable positions of need remained.
Pick 16: Washington Commanders
Player Chosen: Jahan Doctson (WR)
Grade: B-
Despite being received as the first proper “reach” of the draft, the Commanders walk away with a pretty solid grade here as they traded back and likely got the receiver they were after the whole time. Docston is an intriguing prospect as seen by the divisive reaction he received on draft night. He’s a small bodied receiver with average speed which is why he wasn’t considered by most to be a round one prospect. What Doctson does posses however is terrific hands, elusiveness and route running whilst playing a very different style of ball compared to his new teammate, Terry Mclaurin. It’s not a pick I love, be it from a talent or value standpoint. But Washington needed someone to pair with Terry and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Doctson go in round one despite getting a round two grade. They did have other needs and it’s a little surprising to not see them take Kair Elam or Treylon Burks but this isn’t as bad a pick as people initially thought it was.
Pick 17: Los Angeles Chargers
Player Chosen: Zion Johnson (OG)
Grade: A
After discussing why a round one guard guard can be a tough ask and marking the Texans down slightly for it, why on earth am I giving the chargers an A you might ask. The answer to that is a combination of fit, talent and value just like every other pick. Zion is a great guard prospect who excels in both pass and run blocking. He possesses the prototypical build you’d want from a guard and has great strength from the position. You likely won’t see the chargers shuffle him around often as he’s nothing like Ikem in his ability go explode off the snap and shuffle his feet. But he projects to start immediately and enables the chargers to move their starting guard from last year, into the RT spot. While the Chargers could have eyed a player like a Devonte Wyatt or an extra WR to give Herbert more options, Zion is a team that immediately makes their offence better and enables them to protect their franchise QB, even if it doesn’t happen to be at a premium position.
Pick 18: Tennessee Titans (traded with Philadelphia Eagles)
Player Chosen: Treylon Burks (WR)
Grade: B-
The joke here is obvious and everyone has already made it. Yes, the Titans traded their pro bowl receiver for a player whose exactly like him as a prospect only a few years younger and cheaper. What this means for the Titans is that they’ve essentially stalled as a potential SB contender instead opting for a treadmill rebuild. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as their ceiling has always been capped with Tanehill at QB and given their current cap situation, re-signing A.J Brown was always going to cause them some issues. Instead of being stuck in cap hell or kicking the salary cap can down the road, they opt to get younger and cheaper and get a prospect who they hope is anywhere from 70-100% of what Brown currently is. Receiving only the 18th pick in the draft however isn’t great value given the current market for WR’s and they get no future picks in order to plug up other weaknesses, instead opting to fill the one they created in the first place with the trade. The Titans still need another WR to play alongside Burks and they haven’t improved their team at all with this pick. None of this is a criticism against Burks as he was a top 3-4 WR prospect in this class and the fact that everyone compares him to Brown, should be seen as a great compliment. He’s going to be a day one starter (not that they have any other choice) and he could easily become a receiver who notches 1000 yards a season thanks to his fantastic combination of length, height and speed. The only drawback to him as a prospect is a lack of production at the X as Arkansas played him primarily out of the slot, similar to Jameson Williams. Still, this is a solid pick even if it doesn’t improve the team in the immediate future.
Pick 19: New Orleans Saints
Player Chosen: Trevor Penning (OT)
Grade: C+
One of the toughest picks to grade, the Saints use their 2nd first rounder on a tackle, shoring up their primary offensive weaknesses outside of QB. In a vacuum, this is a solid selection as Penning is a hard nosed OT who crushes opposing edge rushers in the run game and has potential to become a solid pass blocker. If he were slotting in at RT instead of LT, this likely becomes an A grade pick. But the Saints already have a pro bowler in that spot and instead, Penning is replacing Armstead who was a significantly better pass blocker. Penning needs a lot of refinement to his game and although the Saints will ask him to be a day one starter, they won’t love the protection that comes from it. Given the lack of draft capital they have, the pick makes total sense but as an overall haul for what they gave up, to walk away with a RT playing LT and a hopeful WR2, it’s astoundingly poor value.
Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers
Player Chosen: Kenny Pickett (QB)
Grade: C
When day one concluded the Steelers must have been just a touch concerned that no other teams moved back up into the first round to get a 5th year option on a rookie QB in a class where no prospect is viewed as definitively better than another. This concern would turn out to be well founded as no QB’s fell in round two and it wasn’t until early round 3 where a second QB would finally fall. As such, the value on this pick is pretty poor as it’s hard to be certain Pickett himself wouldn’t have fallen until later in the second, if not the third round. As a player however, Pickett projects to be a capable starter who’s ceiling is quite limited. He doesn’t have the arm of Willis nor the mobility but he does carry good accuracy with a decent ability to move through his progressions. It’s likely Pickett never gets a second contract and is instead someone PIT hope to build around and ask him to be just good enough for the rest of the team to be in a spot to win games. The one great advantage to Pickett is that he’s capable of being a day one starter if PIT have no interest in trotting out Trubitsky and he could be a QB who sees a wildcard berth his rookie season. PIT likely would have been better off fixing up their Oline but given the importance of QB, it’s understandable that they “reach” on Pickett.
Pick 21: Kansas City Patriots (trade with New England Patriots)
Player Chosen: Trent Mcduffie (CB)
Grade: A-
As per typical NE behaviour, the Patriots trade out and let KC slide in here to take the best zone corner of the draft. Mcduffie was projected to be a top 12 pick and instead falls due to the run on WR’s. While this means that while KC missed out on some of the early premier WR prospects, this did enable them to fix their secondary as Mcduffie is a 3-year starter who was fantastic every single season. He is a bit undersized but he makes up for this with top notch athleticism and is as smart as you’d expect from a zone coverage corner. This is a great value pick and addressed the biggest need for KC outside of WR. The only concern I have for this is pick is scheme fit given KC’s blitz heavy tendencies.
Pick 22: Green Bay Packers
Player Chosen: Quay Walker (LB)
Grade: D-
With the first of two first round picks, the Packers forgo the skill position player as per usual and take an off-ball line-backer instead. Every team values positions differently but it’s hard to argue against the shift away from line-backers as a whole. As such, it’s hard to see what GB were thinking with this pick. LB was certainly a positional need for them but given the players left on the board, they could have opted for a WR like Sky Moore or an edge like Jermaine Johnson or a better LB in Devin Lloyd who’s at least versatile enough to play anything they’d have asked of him. Walker will be fine for GB, likely becoming a starter immediately and he certainly possess a wonderful athletic profile. But the positional and draft value here is one of the lowest of the first round as, earning the rare D- grade.
Pick 23: Buffalo Bills (Trade with Baltimore Ravens)
Player Chosen: Kaiir Elam (CB)
Grade: B
In a loaded and pass happy AFC, the Bills add a CB to pair alongside Tradavious White who’s set to start immediately although Elam isn’t a set and forget type prospect. You typically hear an evaluation with edges, WR’s and Oline of “he’s an athlete that you need to teach how to play football”. You don’t often hear this evaluation with Elam but that’s the best way to describe how he plays CB. He’s incredibly long, tall and strong which enables him to stuff receivers at the LOS and contest deep balls when he doesn’t have the speed to stay with his man. As a technician however, he struggles as he doesn’t have the speed nor footwork to consistently be in the right position which has led to him committing many a needless penalty. As a value pick, it’s fine for the Bills given who’s left on the board. He wasn’t the best player available but he was the best corner left given the medicals around Booth Jr. Perhaps they could have looked at edge and added rotational depth, the Bills filled their biggest need with the best player left at his position.
Pick 24: Dallas Cowboys
Player Chosen: Tyler Smith (OG)
Grade: C+
Another really difficult selection to grade, in part due to it being the Cowboys pick, I settled on a C+ after initially being rather disgruntled at the selection. Smith wasn’t on many people’s radar as a first round pick. This is because he’s a tackle prospect who’s absolutely outstanding as a run blocker but incredibly raw as a pass blocker. At 21 years old, he’s going to have time to learn and he won’t be playing tackle straight away and will likely slot in at LG instead. As I’ve said many times throughout this piece, taking a guard in the first round isn’t something I love unless it immediately improves your team in a substantial way or if the prospect has all pro potential. While Smith has the physical tools to become an all pro calibre player, he likely projects to be a starting capable G who’ll commit one too many penalties and isn’t guaranteed to receive a second contract. This wasn’t a good value pick either as while Oline was a pressing need, Linderbaum was still on the board as were top edge prospects such as Jermaine Johnson or Karlaftis.
Pick 25: Baltimore Ravens
Player Chosen: Tyler Linderbaum (C)
Grade: A+
After receiving the 23rd pick in exchange for Hollywood Brown (and the 100th pick), the Ravens trade down a couple spots, recouping pick 130 and getting the third best value pick of the draft. This is a common theme throughout this draft as the Ravens consistently grabbed fantastic value per their draft position and maximised draft capital without sacrificing much in the way of draft positioning. Were I able to give this pick a higher grade I would as Linderbaum is the best C prospect we’ve seen in a very long time and although he doesn’t appear to fit scheme wise for Baltimore, they are a team you trust to make it work. The only apparent weakness that Linderbuam has is his frame. At 6’2, 296, he’d struggle to play any other position along the offensive line with that size. Everything else is fantastic as he’s strong, quick and possess great hands. Without a doubt one of the few players left of the board with clear all pro potential, the Ravens got an absolute steal here and did so despite trading down and getting back some of what little they lost in the Hollywood trade.
Pick 26: New York Jets (traded with Tennessee Titans)
Player Chosen: Jermaine Johnson (Edge)
Grade: A
A player who shot up people’s draft boards after the senior bowl, the Jets acquire someone who was initially projected to be a top 15 pick and instead trade back up into the first round to get him at 11 spots later. The trade between the Jets and Titans is one of the few that work out for both teams. For the titans, they accumulated an extra 3rd and 5th (both top of the order) whilst only moving down to early in the 2nd round. Given that their previous pick has them running in place, getting extra draft capital is a great move for a team who doesn’t appear to be going all in on a SB run. As for the Jets, they get 5 years of a player who should contribute at a premium position whilst giving away just a single valuable pick. Speaking of, Johnson is someone who isn’t a great athlete in any one area but is good in all of them. He likely won’t be a pro bowler, nor be a guy who gets you 10+ sacks a season. But he does look set to contribute straight away and given how great he looked the last time he saw him, he could prove to be an edge who produces beyond what the traits indicate (keep this in mind for the next edge who comes off the board). Given the Jets addressed their two biggest needs prior to this pick, it’s hard to fault them for draft value here and there isn’t any outstanding talent left on the board they just had to take.
Pick 27: Jacksonville Jaguars (Traded with the Buccaneers)
Player Chosen: Devin Llloyd (LB)
Grade: C+
Another difficult to grade pick as the Jags leap back up into the first round to grab the best LB prospect of this class. On one hand, the Jags got great value to trade up here, only giving up a 4th and 6th to get their guy. Lloyd is also a fantastic prospect. He lacks any real weaknesses beyond just an “acceptable” ability to tackle but I’d consider this to be a very minor nitpick. You could also say he isn’t a premier athlete at LB but really, there’s nothing Lloyd shouldn’t be able to do at the pro level even if he might be fantastic at any one thing. The drawback to this pick is in the positional value. Jacksonville could have just kept their Myles Jack who wouldn’t have cost them much more than Lloyd does now on a rookie deal (about an extra 2-3 million) whilst not having to use a first on a LB who will likely be a minor to moderate upgrade in a position that doesn’t carry a ton of value. Opportunity cost is a real factor teams need to consider and yet year after year, the Jags ignore this. Which is why it’s hard to give this pick a good grade as despite the good trade up value and grabbing a player who’s projected to be the best at his position from this class, they picked a guy who they could’ve gotten 80% of at the end of the third round.
Pick 28: Green Bay Packers
Player Chosen: Devonte Wyatt (DL)
Grade: B-
With the first pick for GB going to an off ball LB, most assumed the Packers couldn’t afford to select anyone else other than a WR. Those who assumed that would be wrong as they went for the second-best DL prospect in the class and shore up an already stout defence from last season. Despite being in dire need of offensive help, this pick actually makes a little more sense for GB. Wyatt is fantastic athlete capable of doing anything GB could ask of him along the Dline. As a prospect, he’s far more well rounded than Jordan Davis and although he may not be the run stuffing force of destruction Davis is projected to be, Wyatt is athletic enough to stunt and he’ll make everyone around him better due to his versatility. Where the pick falters a little is in the pick before this. Were Wyatt chosen with the Quay Walker pick, this would have freed up the Packers to select someone worthy of first round value here. Even if that’s Watson who they took in the second round, that saves them the value of trading back up to get him and it also nabs them an extra year on his contract. Of course, they could’ve also opted someone else here such as Karlaftis or even doubled down on WR and gone Sky Moore here and then trade up in the 2nd for Watson. The Packers have a lot of production to replace on the offence with both Valdez Scantling and Adams gone. Taking two defensive players in round one just isn’t maximising your draft capital to improve your team when you have a QB on what’s likely his final contract.
Pick 29: New England Patriots
Player Chosen: Cole Strange (OG)
Grade: C
This will likely be a controversial grade given the divisive nature of the pick. Initially mocked to high heaven with Sean Mcvay laughing so much he actually had to issue an apology out to Bellicheck, this pick was seen as a reach by most draft aficionados. Patriots fans have argued against this, citing multiple reports of teams who were interested in the early 2nd round and regardless of the validity of these reports, the pick certainly isn’t laugh out loud worthy but it also isn’t a pick where they maximised draft capital. As previously stated in this article, taking a guard in the first round really isn’t maximising value as they aren’t blocking elite edge rushers and, in most cases, don’t make your team substantially better unless you’re acquiring a Zack Martin or Quinton Nelson. The same is true for this pick as the Pats acquire a solid prospect in Strange. He’s incredibly athletic, one of the best Oline prospects of the class and is likely capable of playing either G or C. He needs refinement in his blocking however and despite being a 24-year-old rookie, will likely need some time to develop his game before he’s considered a reliable and consistent starter. Strange does fill a need but much like the jags, this feels like a self-inflicted replacement. They could have just kept Shaq Mason instead and used the first round pick on someone else, be that at WR (Sky Moore) or Edge (Karlaftis, Ebikitie). There’s the old adage of “In Bellicheck we trust” and that’s what NE fans are going to have to hope for now as while the rest of their draft was a bit more consistent, this pick doesn’t tick off the critical aspect of talent meeting value.
Pick 30: Kansas City Chiefs
Player Chosen: George Karlaftis (Edge)
Grade: A
An analytical darling, Karlaftis was largely forgotten about by most of the viewing public as despite producing some fantastic numbers last season (including 14 hits and 35 hurries), he’s generated no excitement for his talents. This stems from a perceived lack of upside as his measurables are mostly average. As such, he falls to KC at 30 who maybe get an edge with limited upside but do get an edge with fantastic strength and top tier collegiate production. As a team with SB aspirations, the Chiefs got someone who’s going to start and contribute straight away without any concerns about scheme fit all the way down at 30 without having to trade up again to get him. Much like GB, they took two defensive players here instead of using their draft capital to replace the star WR they traded away. The difference with the Chiefs are twofold. Firstly, they’re working with a better talent base as they have Juju, Valdez Scantling, Kelce, Hardman and now rookie standout, Sky Moore (finally). Any of those receivers would likely be WR2 at worst on the Packers. Secondly, is the players KC took. With their first pick, they got the best zone corner of the draft. And with the second pick, they take the best edge prospect left on the board. Both picks were the top talents left on the board at premium positions. This is precisely how you maximise draft capital, even if it means moving up a few spots to get a player. Great pick and a great draft from a team who looks as strong as ever despite losing their star WR.
Pick 31: Cincinnati Bengals
Player Chosen: Daxton Hill (S)
Grade: B
On a team with very few needs to address, many wondered if Cincy would trade out of this pick or just take whoever they had as the best available on their board. They do neither of those and instead take their future Jessie Bates replacement at safety. Hill is an extremely quick safety who projects to be a deep safety who will occasionally come in as a slot corner on certain dime packages. He’s quite light for a safety, you certainly won’t ever see him fill in at the box, at least not successfully. But for the end of the first round, the Bengals still manage to acquire a player who’ll like be a starter for them at some point. It’s not a great value pick as safety as unless your looking at someone with all pro upside, taking a safety in round one certainly isn’t ideal. But given the lack of overall weaknesses as well as who was left on the board it’s hard to fault this pick too much. They likely should’ve looked more towards edge as Ojabo and Ebikeite were still on the board and would’ve topped the best available which knocks the grade down a little.
Pick 32: Minnesota Vikings
Player Chosen: Lewis Cine (S)
Grade: C
With the 32nd pick of the 2022 NFL draft the Minnesota Vikings select….. a deep safety. Not the most exciting way to end round one, especially after trading all the way down from 12 to 32 but the Vikings take one of the best players left on the board, albeit at a not very valuable position. Much of what was said about the Bengals can apply to this pick though Cine does offer even more upside than Hill given his ability to play box safety as well as the FS spot. He doesn’t posses the agility to excel at FS though his 40 time at the combine may indicate he’s better quicker than we’ve given him credit for. But like Cincy, the Vikings drafted him because he’s a start and forget player at the back end of round one. Why this pick gets a lower grade than the Bengals selection is because of the trade down with the Lions. Some trade charts may value that trade higher than others and the theory that the drop off in talent from 10-32 is far smaller than 1-10 is something I mostly agree with. Of all the players the Vikings passed on by trading down, there aren’t too many they’d have been thrilled to get. But the Vikings have been stuck on the treadmill of 9-8, 10-7 for quite a while now and the trade down, nor drafting a starting calibre safety here, changes much of that. Thielen is starting to show his age, they’ve never been settled within their Oline and they could always use an extra pass rusher. They could have addressed any of those needs, even with a smaller trade down. Instead, they use the draft capital in this pick as well as the Lions second to touch up their secondary. These aren’t terrible moves but they also aren’t pushing this team off the treadmill.
And with that, R1 draft grades are done. As per usual, this piece is longer than I anticipated and thanks to some random life things getting in the way, is coming out almost a full week later than I intended. Still, I hope anyone who’s reading this get someone enjoyment or insight out of it. I do hammer trade value I know but given the direction of the league at the moment, I think maximising your draft capital, be that the Rams strategy of getting immediate contributors or loading up on R1 picks and being savvy enough to have draft board flexibility like the Eagles, is absolutely crucial to building a successful team. That just about does it, cheers.