Winners and loser’s week 15 of the NFL season

Welcome back to another week of winners and losers. It had to be one of the most insane weeks in NFL history as we saw three endings to games that could’ve been the most memorable of the season all wrapped under our Christmas tree one week early. As we near the end of the regular season (no one is sadder about this than I), we continue to focus upon playoff aspiring teams as opposed to those looking forward to April. Unlike last week, we had a slate full of games where playoff appearances hanged in the balance. As such, even though we’re running on limited time this week, the winners and losers list has decided to go on a bit of a binge eating spree. With that said, let’s dive in.

Winner 49ers

Let’s start with the 49ers who sealed up their division and put their division rivals at great risk of missing the playoffs. Although ugly, this game was hardly a contest throughout. Purdy was once again, fine under centre. He made few mistakes, opting mostly for safe passes with little risk.  We did finally see the limitations of him at QB however as on the few instances where he was asked to throw downfield, he was far from competent and on a couple throws, downright awful. But this is a winners column, so let’s focus upon what’s going right for the Niners. After a couple drives by Seattle who quickly realised that running the ball won’t get them very far, the Niners got the ball at their own 14 yard line. From there, the Niners just fed Mcaffery who accumulated 50 of the 86 yards gained on the drive and received the ball on all but two plays. One of which being the TD pass to George Kittle who got wide open thanks to some ingenious play design. It started with a motion to a WR (fake sweep WR screen), before progressing to another fake (this time to Mcaffery), before Kittle who had been blocking the entire time, leaks out and turns on the jets for the score. Interestingly enough, the Niners had run this play once before, only Kittle faked falling over the last time. It’s a drive that laid the blueprints for how this Niners team can succeed with limitations at QB. Ingenious play design where the threat of McCaffery and the lateral speed of the WR’s can open up the rest of the field.

Following the score, both teams would proceed to punt a few times. Seattle due to mistakes as well as the dominant pass rush from Nick Bosa and Co. Whilst the Niners would stall out from a couple of penalties as well as some poor throws by Purdy while under pressure, one of which should’ve been picked off. To Seattle’s credit, they would move the ball before settling for a FG. Cause for celebration would be short lived however as backup RB Travis Homer would fumble. A couple Mcaffery runs later and just like that, the 49ers were up 14-3 at halftime. Although the game wasn’t over, the Niners were getting the ball back after halftime. One more TD score spelled doom for a Seattle team needed to still be able to at least offer the threat of running the ball. Likewise, Seattle’s inability to stop the run would mean that the Niners could just run the ball and drain the clock out to victory. So what happened on the opening drive of the 2nd half? You guessed, the Niners got the ball to a wide open Kittle again as he scampered away for a  54 yard score.  Although Seattle would respond with a FG, the rest of the game was largely academic. A missed 43 yard FG by Robbie Gould would spark a little bit of life in the game as it spurred on a late Seahawks TD. But on the ensuing drive, the 49ers would run it 6 times and gain two first downs as the clock ran to 0:00.

San Fran have now won 7 straight games, lead the division and are a real threat to potentially gain two home field playoff games should the Vikings stumble. Throughout the win streak, they’ve dominated, only appearing to be at risk of losing against the Chargers back in week ten where they rode their ferocious defence to a shutout of Herbert and Co in the 2nd half. With just three games left, it seems unlikely that the Niners lose again unless they wish to rest their starters. In the final three weeks, they play the commanders, Raiders and Cardinals respectively. With the division all wrapped up, it’s possible they rest up in week 18 and instead prepare for the first wildcard weekend matchup.

Winner: Lions- Loser: Jets

Back in week 8, the Lions were the same old feisty hapless team they were last year under head coach Dan Campbell. They had played some teams close, including the Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks and Dolphins but had lost them all with their single win being against the Commanders. The defence was the worst in the league, achieving the rare trifecta of surrendering the most yards, most points and highest 3rd down completion percentage. That was good for a 1-6 record despite possessing one of the highest scoring offences in the league. Since losing to Miami in week 8 however, they’ve been a completely different team having won 6 of their last 7 games, bringing their record to an even 500 with just three games to go. Entering the game against the Jets, they were picked as underdogs despite the rather comprehensive win against the Vikings the week prior. This was all the more surprising given it was Zach Wilson who’d be under centre for the Jets due to Mike White being injured.

Initially it appeared as though the oddsmakers had gotten this game comically wrong. Detroit marched down the field on the opening drive and had the ball at the Jets 7-yard line on first and goal. The first play was course a carry to NFL TD leader Jamaal Williams who went for 3 yards. If anyone has seen Detroit play this season, you could guess what the next play was. Another rush for Williams, this time for two yards. On third and goal at the two-yard line, they decided to let Justin Jackson have a crack at it. He went for a single yard. Now facing fourth and goal, what sort of creative magic could Detroit come up with? It had to be another run to Jamaal Williams certainly. This time it was stuffed for a loss of yards and the Jets took over at their own 3 yard line. A quick punt later and it seemed like everything all came out even. Except the Jets forgot that you need to cover the punt return in addition to helping block for your punter. Returner Kaylif Raymond would take it to the house for 6 and just like that, it was 7-0. After a couple punts, the Jets would respond with their own score to tie it up. Garrett Wilson got open for a wide open 33 yard gain as Zach Wilson got outside the pocket on a bootleg and do what he does best (the only thing he does best). He'd repeat the effort on the very next play (this time a bootleg to the left) as CJ Uzamoh got wide open for the score.

The rest of the half was largely uninteresting as Detroit nabbed a FG after a boneheaded holding penalty stalled what otherwise looked to be a TD drive. On the final drive of the half, the Jets possessed the ball with just 25 seconds left and two timeouts. Credit must go to coach Saleh as he trusted Wilson to go for it. Okudah would make a rare mistake and didn’t track the ball, leading to an open Jeff Smith for 50 yards. Smith would get open again on the next play, this time for 18 yards and the Jets would tie the game up with a FG to end the half. It’s a half that painted a bizarre picture for Zach Wilson. Despite a few ugly incompletions, Wilson had completions for 33, 40, 50 and 18 yards scattered amongst his 8 completed passes. In the first half alone, Wilson had eclipsed his previous games yardage total (77 yards).

To start the second half, we got to see the Zach Wilson we’d had become more accustomed to as he threw an absolute duck to Jerry Jacobs who was sitting on the route the entire time. Luckily for Wilson, the mistake only cost him 3 thanks to the superb play of the Jets defensive line who stuffed the run and harassed Goff for much of the game. In what seemed to be a reoccurring theme of the game, little else happened after the points as both teams would trade getting a first down or two before punting it away. If scoring points would start the drought in this game, then missing points would surely kick it off again. Badgley would miss a 54-yard FG Detroit which would in turn, spur the Jets to their first lead of the game. Starting at their own 44, the Wilson-to-Wilson connection would strike again as Garrett would fight through pass interference (and a little bit of holding) to make an absurd catch, brining the ball down to the Detroit 21 yard line. Several plays later and the Jets were facing third and goal from the one yard line. Now stop me if you’ve heard this one before, CJ Uzomah got open for the TD score. Seems like covering this guy would have been a good idea but what do I know. That brought the score to 17-14 Jets with just 4:40 left in the game. Keeping with the theme of the Jets not being able to have nice things, the lead wouldn’t last for all too long.

Prior to the winning streak, this was the kind of game Detroit had been destined to lose. Hitting failure despite looking like a quality side was a hallmark trait of this team. But the Lions are living proof of the whole regression to the mean concept. Goff dished out a composed, balanced drive but faced a difficult choice. 4th and one from their own 49-yard line. A punt could potentially be a game ender even if the Jets offence isn’t much to worry about. Both these teams were on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. A win here meant keeping the playoff dream alive. A loss would likely spell the end. If Campbell went for it and was wrong, the wonderful comeback story would die. If he didn’t, every talking head on earth would argue that he had nothing to lose and should’ve gone for it. Campbell opted to go for it, trusting Goff to make the right decision and for his offensive line to hold (not literally). Hold it did as they put the sun god in motion to distract what appeared to be every DB on the Jets and backup TE Brock Wright would escape after committing the initial block and run off for the long score. It’s a genius play call that could very well be something ripped straight out of the Shannahan playbook. Were I to replace the sun god with Ayuik and Wright with Kittle, you’d have never known the difference. That brought the score to 20-17 with just over a minute to go.

Although Zach Wilson had what you’d call a good game by his standards, everything now rested on his shoulders. His play featured some big time throws but was otherwise mired in incompletions and bad reads. With the Jets season on the line, this was a critical moment for both the Jets and his career. Mike white is sniffing at his heels, desperately trying to get his own starting role. Much has already been made about how Zach isn’t a good locker room presence. The writing was on the wall for him to become the next Sam Darnold. Were he to lose this game, it likely meant the end of the Jets playoff aspirations and potentially the end of his time as a Jet.

What could Wilson come up with? On the first play, it was walking straight into a sack. Not a great start but it’s four down territory so it wasn’t an immediate kill shot. Second down, he missed an open Braxton Berrios that may have gone all the way for a score thanks to some blown coverage. Now he faced 3rd and 19. The only thing that had been working all game was Uzamoh and Garrett Wilson. So of course, the ball went to Garrett who beat remarkably beat Okudah stride for stride. After a quick incompletion, Zach would once again connect with Garett for another first down (no timeout taken by Saleh here despite 3 timeouts, an incredibly poor decision that’s left as a footnote for this game). A semi failed hail Mary attempt into double coverage later and a sack later and now it’s third and 18 with 19 seconds to go at the Jets 40, miles out of range for a FG. Another incompletion thanks to a sneaky defensive holding call that wasn’t called. 4th and 18, 14 seconds left. Zach Wilson completes an incredible pass to Elijah Moore who came back to the ball, picked up the first down and got down with just one second left on the clock. A 58-yard FG now was the only hope for the Jets season. As you might expect with a long FG, it went wide and the Lions narrowly escaped with the victory. It was far from the perfect game by the Lions.

Despite largely controlling the game, the defence made critical mistakes time after time that let the Jets back into the game. But no one is asking about how you got your wins in January and so despite the sub-par game, it still spelled victory all the same. Detroit is now in the drivers position for a wildcard berth. They play the Panthers, Bears and Packers to close out the season. All of which are games they’re likely to be favoured in. Should they win out, they may just earn themselves a playoff spot given the teams above them feature a much harsher schedule. The Giants play Sota, Indy and Philly in their final 3 games, all of which are potential losses for that them. Washington plays the red-hot 49ers, the stingy Browns and…. Well Dallas (more on them in a moment) to close out the season. Finally, the free-falling Seahawks play the Chiefs, Jets and Rams to finish things out. It’s far from guaranteed that Detroit wins out there games whilst their opponents stumble. But they have the easiest path on paper to close out their schedule and become playoff bound for the first time since. 2016.

Winner: Bengals- Loser Bucs

The matchup between two division leaders. Brady vs Burrow. A guy who made the SB vs Mr Superbowl. What an incredible matchup right? Okay, I’ll stop now. This game had all the makings of a trap game for Cincy. Despite winning 5 straight games, they only opened as 3.5 point favourites to a team with 7 losses, tied for the most in Brady’s career. The Bucs haven’t had an impressive since week one against Dallas. Last week saw one of the most embarrassing losses in Bray’s prolific career as he went down 28-0 at halftime.  Their defence is banged up, the play calling is stale, they can’t run the ball (worst in the league), they have no chemistry passing the ball and the offensive line has been injured since preseason. It made no sense as to why the line was so low in this game but this is your weekly reminder that oddsmakers know far more than you or I. After a few quick first downs, Burrow attempting to throw Chase, had his passed tipped and picked by Keanu Neal. In the past 9 games, the Bucs only had generated 3 turnovers. If you look at who they’ve played, that stat becomes even more embarrassing. But in a game where they needed everything to go right, the Bucs got it going early. They even decided to throw it on first down a couple times on the opening drive, seemingly a rarity for this squad. It was an unusually successful opening drive reaching the Cincy goal line. But the drive would stall after Brady threw a near INT in the zone, repeating their red zones woes that’s plagued them all season long. Although the drive only resulted in 3 points, it took over 6 minutes of game time and after a quick Bengals three and out, the Bucs had the ball again, ready to abuse the wounded Cincy secondary. Mike Evans, who although will notch yet another 1000 yard season, has been underwhelming to say the least. On deep routes, he’s lost track of the ball and the timing’s been off between he and Brady all season. But on the first two drives of the game, Evans looked like his old self, gaining separation on crossing routes and making a tough contested catch on 4th down.

Despite the early success, the Bucs inability to run the ball would force the Bucs into throwing it on 4th down twice this drive. It’s a results driven league though and Brady would find Gage in the end zone to bring up the score to 10-0. The next few drives would be largely uninteresting though it’s worth noting that the Bengals would continue to go three and out. Action picked up on the final drives of the half by each team. Brady hit godwin on three straight passes on route to a TD. By the time Burrow got the ball with 1:39 left to go in the half, Cincy had just 14 offensive snaps with four 3 and outs. Sometimes though, when nothing else is working, it’s nice to have all the opposing DB’s play off coverage. Burrow marched down the field, picking up as many first downs as they had possessions to that point. An egregious error by Perine would remove any chance of the Bengals getting 7 though a 17-3 halftime deficit seemed manageable. But for as bad as the offence was, the defence was equally responsible for being down. For what seemed like the first time all season, the Bucs were able to successfully run play action off the back of Fournette actually achieving more than a 1.0 YPC. This enabled one of the worst 3 down teams to convert a string of them and control the clock throughout the half. Although Brady had some questionable throws, it was most cohesive half of football the Bucs had produced to that point. Everything was functioning like a competent team. Even the play-calling by Leftwhich was earning praise from Tony Romo.

Facing a two-touchdown deficit, against a team where everything was finally clicking. How can you possibly overcome that? If this week of football taught us anything, it’s that one half of good play does not automatically equate to another half of good play. After a quick three and out, the Bucs would punt for the first time all game. I’d have loved to say his leg was a bit cold or he was rusty. Instead, the Bucs ran a fake punt, only they forgot to tell the runner and just like that, Cincy had life. Even with that mistake however, the Bucs defence would hold the ailing Bengals red zone offence to just 3. Jamarr had a chance to convert for 6 but Charlton Davis had the game of his career and almost picked off the intended pass.

Speaking of INT’s, Trey Flowers would have his own moment, making an incredible diving catch to pick off Brady and giving his offence yet another chance to make up the deficit. This time however, there would be no FG. It would still require the Bucs practically handing the score to Cincy on a silver platter however. On a 4th and 3, despite the Bengals being dead last in 4th down %, they went for it. Burrow ran backwards for 26 yards backwards and got sacked. Perfect right? Not quite as Cincy would get a first down after Lavonte David committed a completely unnecessary defensive holding penalty to deep the drive alive. Even after that, the Bucs defence would force another third down attempt on the drive. This time, a facemask penalty extended the drive. Burrow would score on the following play and at this point, the Bucs implosion seemed inevitable.

Even after all the mistakes though, the Bucs had grossly outplayed the Bengals. All they needed was some more play killing drives, force the Bengals to drive all the way down the field like they had done in the first half. Apparently, that was asking too much though as the Bucs weren’t even capable of punting the ball away. Instead, Brady would get sacked on third and 10 and fumble the ball away, the third of the quarter of those keeping score at home. Cincy would punch in the score along with a 2pt conversion, erasing a 14-point halftime deficit, giving the Bengals a 20-17 lead. Just a reminder that they acquired the lead despite being 1 for 7 on third downs. Yes, that’s right, they scored 20 unanswered points despite being incapable of converting on third down.

If that’s not enough Brady would bobble the handoff to Fournette on the ensuing possession, giving Cincy the ball at basically the same starting field position they’ve had the entire quarter. Yet again, Cincy would punch it in for a score despite the Bucs defence having numerous chances to get off the field. Bunting would drop an easy INT and the Bengals would convert two third and longs on the drive. If you thought 4 straight turnovers was enough for one game then you’re not a machoistic Bucs fan as Brady would throw a second INT after getting hit in the pocket. It was far from Brady’s fault but it was yet another nail in the coffin. The rest of the game had far less excitement. Although I suppose for the Bucs, a successful punt was cause for celebration. Cincy and Tampa would trade TD’s on the final couple possessions but any hope of a comeback was lost after a failed 2pt conversion by Tampa that would’ve brought the game back down to 8 points. A failed onside kick later and an absolutely insane game was over.

Wrapping this one up, it’s worth reminding you just how bizarre a game this was. Tampa was up 14 at the half and had dominated the game from the outset. Even after the turnovers, the Bucs defence would hold. It was mistake after mistake that buried this Tampa team and caused the 31 unanswered points. Although it was only a 9-point game, the 34-23 score-line doesn’t seem reflective of how close this game actually was. For the first time in an age, the Bucs played a balanced first half of football. Almost all the issues that had plagued them all season no longer appeared to be there. For that to be erased by an awful quarter seems unjust. But football is an unjust game and even when it makes sense, it doesn’t. Cincy may have gotten the win but it was the Bucs who threw the game away. Looking ahead, it appears as though the Bengals have all but locked up the division. A win over the Patriots will all but seal it even if they happen to lose to the Bills in a couple weeks. As for the Bucs, fortunately, their division continues to be a dumpster fire and after a terrible loss by the Panthers, they may just win the division by default.