Winners and losers of week 13 of the NFL season

Welcome back to the column after an unexpected two-week hiatus. Apologies for the departure these past couple weeks. Life stuff combined with this time of year got in the way of me producing these like I ordinarily would. Should be the last break from now until the Superbowl however. With that said, not much has changed. The format will see some tweaks this week as I continue to experiment and figure out exactly what the best format for this column should look like. For this week, I’ll be viewing the games with a broader lense as opposed to the usual style of breaking it down drive by drive. That doesn’t mean there won’t be analysis on plays or specific drives but it’ll be done with a broader brush stroke as opposed to the finer details. Will all that said, I’m glad to have you back and let’s dive in.

Winner: Eagles

In what’ll be known as the game that first gave Hurts his MVP claim should he win it, it’s the Eagles kicking in the teeth of a Titans squad that everyone had picked to pull the upset. The logic was sound in theory. Philly haven’t been defending the run well since the loss of Jordan Davis and the offence has looked the better part of inconsistent since the start of November. With king Henry entering the December cold, there was a good argument that the Titans would play mistake free football, run the ball successfully and limit the Eagles possessions. A score akin to a 23-20 final made a lot of sense. Initially, that seemed to be a pretty accurate prediction. Philly opened up with an incredibly impressive opening TD score finished off by Devonta Smith who owned the drive. After that, a couple of three and outs ensued before the Titans responded with their own TD drive that saw Treylon Burks receive one of the nastiest helmet to helmet hit’s you’ll see all season. He held onto the ball however and just like that, it was 7-7. Philly would respond with another TD score with it all being conducted through the air. After a potential AJ Brown score was taken off the board, he’d score on the very next play, giving a bit of an FU to his former team. Tennessee would eventually respond with their own FG before the Eagles scored yet another TD to bring it to 21-10 at halftime.

That was more or less ballgame. Despite Jordan Davis playing limited reps, the Eagles had managed to hold the Titans to just 55 rushing yards at half and had completely neutered their usual brand of December offence. Philly would go on to punch in a TD in the third and fourth quarter but it was all academic with the Titans having just 209 total yards by full time. There’s a lot that can be said for the Titans inability to play from behind but credit must go to Philly who dominated a game that was seen as a bad matchup for them. Hurts produced his best game of the season despite the run game (including his own) achieving absolutely nothing. Beyond the yardage and TD’s, it was the types of throws he was making. It’s the first time all season he delivered what used to a prototypical QB passing performance. He did so with such ease, making the game look effortless like most MVP candidates do. It may not secure him an MVP but it certainly puts him at the forefront of the conversation moving forward. As for the Eagles, it ticks off one of the few “challenging” games remaining on their schedule. Of course anything can happen on any given Sunday but with just a few weeks left to go in the season, they’ve maintained their status as the frontrunners for the one seed in the NFC and only appear to have Dallas as the final game that may present them some issues.

Winner: Lions

How about this plucky Lions squad. A week after everyone was rolling out the red carpet for the true arrival of Trevor Lawrence, Detroit’s formerly terrible defence holds him to a single TD. Before you get started, yes, in the grand scheme of things, this win means little for Detroit. They can’t win the division and are two games behind at best in the wildcard division race with so few games left to go. There’s always a but though. But, the Giants have two games left to play against the Eagles, the Seahawks have looked far from reliable lately and have yet to play a brutal 3 game stretch of the 49ers, Chiefs and Jets. Lastly, the Commanders also have the Giants and Niners whilst also facing a week 18 game against Dallas who’ll be eager to shut out their Rivals from the playoffs. When you take all that into account, it’s not as easy as you might suspect to write off Detroit as a last ditch effort playoff team.

As for the game itself, it was a dominant victory right from the jump. A quick turnover by the Jags saw Jamaal Williams punch in yet another score. On the ensuing drive the Jags would make the regrettable decision to a kick a FG on 4th and 3 from the lions 13. Detroit would respond with a TD and 3 FG’s for the rest of the half whilst the Jags would only amount to another FG. By halftime, it was 23-6 and the game seemed all but wrapped up already. After an opening 3rd quarter score by Detroit, Lawrence did make it at least somewhat interesting, bringing the game to a “two score deficit” (would have required two TD’s and two more 2pt conversions however). But Detroit would keep moving the ball at will, adding another 10 points in the 4th quarter to bring the game to a merciful end. By the end of the game, the Lions had not punted on a single possession. This game also marked the return of a healthy Deandre Swift who looked fantastic, especially receiving the ball out the backfield. Likewise, rookie first round WR Jameson Williams made his debut though it was mostly as a gunner on special teams. The victory displayed some optimism for Lions fans moving forward as they’ve now won four of their past five games and have to be the first sub 500 team favoured against a 10-2 team in NFL history. It’ll be tough to accept Goff as the future playcaller beyond this season but an argument at least now exists that he stays the starter for one more year (especially if they sit a rookie QB behind him for a season). Meanwhile, the defence actually looks reformed since the start of Noevember as they’ve only had opponents top 20+ in two of their past five games. Aiden Hutchinson has come alive, leading the team in sacks while Jeffery Okudah has shown some great form recently. It may be unlikely that this squad reaches the playoffs. But this win has shown that they at least have the potential to despite a horrendous start to the year.

Winner: Bengals

The final winner of the week belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals who seemingly just own the Kansas City Chiefs. It started much like the end of last year’s AFC title game ended. Cincy moved the ball with ease and took an early 14-3 lead. An questionable choice by Andy Reid to kick a FG on 4th and 3 from the Bengals 8 did them little favours and although hindsight is 20-20, it’s difficult to agree with the decision. But to the Chiefs credit, they rallied back, scoring a lengthy TD drive of their own that showed off the new dynamic dual threat combination of Isiah Pacheco and Jedrick Mckinon. Speaking of hindsight, the Bengals saw the chance to inflict an early kill shot on KC before halftime and went for it on 4th and one from the KC 4. Ordinarily, this would be considered a by the numbers great move regardless of the actual result. However, Cincy are dead last in 4th down success rate this year. Still, it’s only a yard, how hard can it be right? Well, if you facing down a former teammate of yours who’s sniffed out the exact play your running, it’s extremely difficult. On a motion jet sweep, WR Trent Taylor got the ball and was immediately tackled by a leaping Carlos Dunlap who made a spectacular tackle (he also stuffed Burrow the play before). That would bring the half to a close at 14-10.

Given the history of these two teams over the past two seasons, it was a remarkably interesting half that clashed with many of the season long changes both teams have had this year. For KC, they were suffering at the hands of the Bengals pass rush and Mahomes who’s made marked improvement in both his pocket presence and decision making this year, reverted to his old self and made some poor decisions in the face of pressure. Likewise, the WR’s who’ve been outplaying their talent level this year struggled. Kelce went without a single catch in the first half while Juju and MVS both continued the poor form they’ve had the previous two weeks. Instead, the run game was the sole highlight of the half for KC’s offence. Meanwhile for Cincy, the offensive line finally is starting to look like a cohesive unit capable of giving Burrow the extra time he needs on some plays. However, their failures on short yardage is something that still needs to be noted for the future. Otherwise, it had been a successful half for the Bengals. Had they have scored the TD on the final drive; they’d have been up 10 at halftime in a half that featured so few possessions for either team.

If you give KC any chance of a comeback, of course they’re going to take it. We’ve seen it from Mahomes time after time this year and in years past. Mahomes would finally connect with Kelce and the improved rushing attack of KC helped them march down the field and retake the lead. After getting burned on 4th down in the first half, Cincy would play it conservative on their ensuing drive, opting for a FG form the KC 18 on 4th and 3. This after Tyler Boyd dropped what would have been a walk in TD. That resulted in the game being tied though not for long. Once again, the Chiefs marched to the Bengals goal line. A few questionable play-calls on KC’s part would bring up 4th and goal from the Bengal 3-yard line. It’s here where Mahomes would go to do his best MJ impression and stretch across for the go-ahead score. Cincy would once again respond with another FG, stalling out at the KC 23-yard line. The ensuing KC drive is more or less where the game got decided. After being shut out for most of the game, Kelce finally got his big gainer only to be stripped of the ball. Cincy would score on the ensuing drive whilst chewing up 5 minutes of game time. That left KC with very little time to work. Though that did not eliminate their chance to tie the game. KC got the ball back with still almost 9 minutes left on the clock but would chew up 5 and a half minutes on a drive that resulted in a missed 55-yard FG (thanks to a bad snap). From there, Cincy got a couple first downs to wrap the game up.

To give Cincy some credit, it wasn’t simply a matter of “just getting a couple first downs”. On the go-ahead TD score, Perine made a spectacular effort to convert on third and 7. Likewise, Chase made an incredible leap to secure a first down by the finest of margins. Finally, Higgins made a remarkable catch in traffic to secure the final first down of the game. In short, the Bengals came up with huge play after huge play when they needed too while KC made the mistakes of years past. It marks the first loss for KC in the months of November and December whilst also marking the third straight game between both teams that’s ended with the final score of 27-24. The victory establishes Cincy as a force in the wildcard race and could very easily end up winning their division given the Lamar Jackson injury. They’ve won four of their past five and get a shot at revenge against the Browns this week whom Burrow is 0-3 against for his career. It also clearly makes them favourites against KC should they play each other once again this season. There’s a long road left until the playoffs but for now, it appears that Cincy have elevated themselves to the top of the AFC heap alongside the Bills, Chiefs and Dolphins.

Loser: Dolphins

Tua annon truthers took a hard this week as the Dolphins played their first opponent with a winning record since week 6 (a game in which Tua didn’t play in). This game featured an oddly suspicious line as all the public money went to the Dolphins whilst the Niners stayed steady as 4.5-point favourites. Turns out, oddsmakers know what their doing, who knew. Even after Garrapolo went down on their opening drive, the Niners stayed composed and played (mostly) mistake free football en-route to a comfortable win. It didn’t start that way however as Trent Sherfield took it to the house on the first play of the day. That was as good as it got for Tua and Miami for the entire afternoon as it was the only lead they possessed the entire game. The game itself wasn’t an incredibly interesting one. It was laden with mistakes by Miami on offence whilst the Niners played their usual brand of defence combined with Brock Purdy doing an incredibly impressive job for a guy who was the last pick in the 7th round. The argument against Tua this season has been that he’s a product of the system head coach Mike Mcdaniel has created. That the Tua resonance is in fact, merely the result of scheme combined with two of the fastest players on the field. Given how Purdy played this game and given how awful Tua looked…. This has a morsel of credence to it. Tua was wildly inaccurate all game, throwing incompletions even on simple bubble screen passes that were designed to get him in rhythm. He looked rattled and uncomposed throughout a majority of this game. But it is just the one game. Against arguably the best defence in football who knew they had to play incredibly to fight against any mistakes the young Brock Purdy might bring. Everyone is allowed to have a bad game and Tua certainly had that.

The concern moving forward is that this could be what playoff Tua looks like. A player who if things don’t go right initially, who doesn’t play against some of the easier teams in the league, that he’ll revert back to his old ways. That argument is a little disingenuous because it ignores all the improvements Tua has made this year. In this game, that was certainly the case. But you can’t ignore the sample size of the season to focus upon one specific game in which things went wrong. Tua has improved his ability to read the game, understands that his arm strength is limited and knows what his star studded WR duo will let him get away with. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t make mistakes but his IQ and ball placement have improved this year which coincides with the vast improvements at HC and WR. That holy trio is why the Tua revival has occurred. It’s far too early to crown the burial of Tua as of yet.

It’s not however too early to be concerned about the Dolphins defence. That unit is 25 in points given up on the season and 22nd in passing yards given up. Against the top of the AFC, those statistics are a death sentence unless the offence is every bit as good as it’s been against lesser competition. It’s not like Tua can afford to even play a mediocre game either as they’re 28th in rushing yards per game. Although the addition of Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mosert have seen some improvements, this isn’t a team that ever wants to run the ball more than a handful of times per game. Picture KC back when CEH was their featured back. That’s why this game is such a significant loss for the Dolphins. It offers a scenario in which their ceiling is capped. They get a chance to prove everyone wrong against the occasionally spicy Chargers though it’s unlikely to quell all the doubters. Instead, circle week 15 on your calendar as Miami may very well be playing for control of the division against the Bills that week. Until then, hold off on writing the Tua eulogy just yet.

Loser: Broncos

Speaking of eulogies, have you missed this part of the column as much as I have? I doubt it but here we go. Discussing the game is mostly pointless. Denver has little to play for at this point and although it’s embarrassing to lose to a team who lost their star QB in the 2nd quarter, the futility of Denver is to be expected at this point. At the very least, it’s worth mentioning just how incredible the Denver defence has been this season. For as fun as it’s been to roast Russell Wilson, it’s hard not to feel a great deal of sympathy for a defence that allows the 2nd fewest amount of points despite having to deal with the worst scoring offence week in week out. With that honourable mention out the way, let the roasting begin.

Here are some fun Denver Broncos statistics for you my dear reader:

Currently on pace for the 5th lowest scoring team of all time.

Peyton Manning in 2013 had 7 TD’s in the first game of the season that year. Wilson has passing 7 TD’s in 13 weeks of play.

In 2011, Tebow had 18 total TD’s in 11 games, Wilson has 9 total TD’s.

They have the least amount of red zone attempts this season and the lowest conversion percentage.

Dallas scored almost as many points in the 4th quarter this week as Denver has combined across the past 4 games.

Teams were 0-206 since 1995 when committing two turnovers, forcing none and failing to exceed 10 points…. Until this week as the Ravens beat the Broncos.

Denver is the only team in the AFC to not have a divisional win.

Russell Wilson is the only QB (min. 10 starts) that has scored less total points than the team’s starting kicker. Russell Wilson has played 11 games, totalled 9 TD’s, good for 54 points. Their kicker Brandon McManus has kicked through 80 points this season.

If the Broncos scored 18 points in regulation in every game this season, they would be 10-2. They’re 3-9

Jamaal Williams has scored as many TD’s as the Broncos season (14).

Notable QB’s who are averaging more yards per attempt than Wilson: Mac Jones, Marcus Mariotta, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tanehill, Andy Dalton, Jimmy GQ,

Notable QB’s who’ve thrown for more TD’s than Wilson: Taylor Heinickie, Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tanehill, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariotta, Andy Dalton.

AND NOW your reminder for what they paid to acquire Wilson

“Trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed. “

A reminder, if you know what lasts more than 48 hours after reading all of that, please go see your local doctor.

Winners but also losers: Niners, Bucs, Ravens

Last but not least, it’s worth quickly discussing some winners who also lost out a little. The Niners won and won impressively against the Dolphins but did so at the expense of losing not their second QB of the season. Now all hope lies in Brock Purdy who played admirably this week but likely won’t face the same level of success moving forward. If anyone is capable of overcoming this, it’s Shannahan but victory certainly came at a cost. Likewise, Seattle are only a game back from them and it’s not certain that they win the division and may instead have to fight for a wildcard spot.

Tampa won a game they should have lost by just about every metric. Doing so secured them a bigger division lead but it’s not all positivity. This is still a sad sack team that looks like they’ll be dominated by Dallas come playoff time. Maybe that’ll come to bite this dear writer in the ass but nothing Tampa has done since the first week of the season inspires any level of confidence. They’re a paper-based playoff team if there ever was one. Were Brady not on this squad, every discussion surrounding this team would be centred on “how lucky the first wildcard team is to play them”. Instead, the fear of Brady will always linger. But he isn’t the same player he once was. The connection to Evans is all but gone as he overthrows the ball on every instance. The defence is solid and maybe that’s enough for Brady to do his thing if the game is tight but miracle wins against subpar competition will only get you so far.

Last but not least, Baltimore. The Ravens won without Lamar but now have the Bengals breathing down their necks in the division race. Lamar could miss anywhere from one to four weeks according to reports. Although they don’t have a hard schedule during that run but if they found Denver hard without Lamar, the road won’t be much easier moving forward. This team always appeared limited even when healthy and now they’re a wounded team that may limp its way to the playoffs. Seems far more likely that the Bengals overtake them within the division and relegate them to a wildcard chase.

That will do it for me for this week. Hope you enjoyed the change in format this week. Moving forward, one deep dive into a game whilst approaching other games with a broader brush will likely be the new standard moving forward, especially as we approach the playoffs. Until next week, this has been Kurt, have a good one.