Winners and Losers week 10 of the NFL season

In what was supposed to be a rather uninteresting week of football, we got more entertainment and shock value than anyone could’ve predicted. As such, there’s only two winners this week with 4 losers and a few teams who delayed the demise of their season.

Winner: Vikings

We kick things off with the only meaningful game of football played this week in that of the 6-2 Bills and the 7-1 Vikings. Despite the records, just about everyone predicted a Bills victory as this was mean’t to be the game that finally exposed the Vikings for the fraudulent contender they are. For the first 3 quarters, that appeared to be a pretty accurate description. After a great opening TD drive by Sota that featured a heavy injection of Justin Jefferson, the Bills responded with a quick TD drive of their own and took over the game. Repeated mistakes and miscues were killing the Vikings early as Kirk fumbled the ball one drive (setting them behind the sticks) whilst throwing an INT the next drive. The Bills however, weren’t completely on point either as they settled for a FG after the INT and Singletary fumbled it as he approached the red zone. These hiccups have plagued the Bills season at times, most notably in the first half against the Rams in week one, and again last week against the Jets. But the Vikings weren’t able to capitalise as they chose to pass it on a 4th and one instead of opting for something safer. The Bills would make them pay by scoring another quick TD in the two minute drill and just like that, it was a 14 point lead at half. It wasn’t a score that reflected the disparity of play. It was a mistaken ridden first half that wasn’t helped by the light snowy weather conditions though it was hardly the weather’s fault that both Allen and Cousins had made some poor judgements in the first half. Little changed in the third quarter as Cousins threw another INT that ultimately cost them nothing (thanks to the on again, off again Bills pass rush). Eventually, the Bills would chip in another FG to push the lead out to 17 before Dalvin cook would burst through a hole and explode for an 81 yard score to bring back to 10 entering the 4th quarter though not before Diggs had a spectacular one handed catch on the final play of the quarter.

Anyone who’s heard of this game will know what happened next. But it’s worth noting to see how exactly we got there. On 4th and two from the Vikings 8, the Bills decided to go for it. A TD here would’ve likely been game set and match. A first down continues to bleed out the clock in a game they had a 2 possession lead in. Instead of either of those two things occurring, Allen would get pressured and pushed out of the pocket and would throw a desperation toss that got intercepted by Patrick Peterson. It’s hard to fault Allen on this INT. By going for it on 4th, throwing it away or taking the sack would’ve netted the Bills nothing. Likewise, kicking a FG to go up 13 doesn’t add much to your win probability. But the play was stuffed right from the start. No one was open and the crossing routes bunched up the receivers instead of getting them open. Whether this was intended to be a rub route of some sort, it’s hard to say but it was so ineffective at getting even a single receiver an inch of space that you have to wonder what the plan was. Minnesota to their credit would convert two fourth downs on the next drive, including an incredible 4th and one effort by KJ Osbourne before finally scoring a TD on a nifty fake toss- handoff play to the FB. Hilariously (or tragically depending on who you were going for), the PAT would be missed and it was kept a four score game. But more critical mistakes and a lack of run game would force the Bills to punt yet again, giving the Vikings a chance to tie the game.

 On third and 13, Cousins would get sacked for his second time on the drive by Von Miller, forcing a 4th and 18th on the Vikings 27. Give they had only one timeout, punting wasn’t an option. So off Cousins went to try and force a miracle and a miracle he did force. He threw up a sky high prayer to Justin Jefferson who was blanketed by CJ Lewis. Jefferson somehow came down with one of the greatest catches you’ll ever see in your entire life as he wrapped one hand around the ball whilst Lewis was trying to rip it away with both hands. Not only did Jefferson hold on to the ball at the point of contact, he somehow holds the ball up to stop it from hitting the ground and maintains possession the whole way through. A couple of passes to Thielen and Jefferson later and all the sudden it was first and goal at the Buffalo 3. First down saw Cousins’s LG stomp on his foot for a loss of three. Second down, a miss to Jefferson in the back right corner of the end zone. Third down, a Jefferson catch that appeared to be a TD only to be reversed to an inch short. That led to 4th and inches with just 57 seconds left to go. A QB sneak was the obvious play but instead they go for a play action pass to Dalvin Cook who’d leak out and be there for the reception only to drop it. Game over right? Nope, there was offsides so the ball creeped half an inch closer and the Vikings got another chance. This time they’d go for the obvious choice and QB sneak it only for Cousins to attempt the worst sneak you’ll ever see. He stayed upright, got no meaningful push from his RB or FB and couldn’t reach out a half inch to cross the plane. It honestly seems impossible to not get half an inch on a QB sneak but Cousins was pulling off all the magic tricks this game. All the Bills had to do was complete one successful QB sneak of their own for a couple yards and the game would be over. Even a safety, while disastrous, wouldn’t guarantee a loss. Hilariously enough though, neither outcome would happen and instead a botched snapped resulted in a fumble and an Eric Kendricks defensive TD to put the Viks up 3. Buffalo would be left with just 30 seconds and no timeouts to score 3 points (tell me when you’ve heard this before). Indeed the Bills would march right down the field and tie the game up to send it to OT though it wasn’t without it’s controversial moment. A Seemingly clear and obvious bumbled reception (upon replay) that went for 20 yards wasn’t reviewed. How the NFL continues to get these things wrong despite actively having measures in place to stop it is beyond me but that’s another discussion for another time.

So onto OT we went. The combination of Dalvin Cook and Jeferson had the Vikings at first and goal from the 2. A TD would’ve won them the game. Instead, the Vikings run a outside zone run on first for negative 3 yards, Cousins would get by Ed Oliver on 2nd down for a loss of 10 yards before finally tossing it out the endzone on third and goal. As a result, Sota would settle for an INT and gave Allen enough time for a TD of his own (though a FG likely would’ve resulted in a tie). Allen went to running off and marched down the field.  With first and 10 at the Vikings 20, it seemed inevitable that Allen would finally reach the end zone for the first time in the 2nd half/OT. Instead, he’d get picked off as he threw it behind backup TE Quintin Morris and into the waiting arms of Patrick Peterson. Finally, the best of the season had come to a close. Though calling it that is a little disingenuous. After all, the Bills had a 17 point lead with just under 2 minutes left in the third quarter. Even after the long Cook score, the Bills were knocking on the doorstep of one final score to seal the game before Allen threw his first INT to Peterson. It took screw up upon screw up for this game to turn into the epic battle it’ll be remembered as. History should look back upon this game as the Justin Jefferson game instead. It was here where he carved out his case as the best WR in the league (especially after the injury to Cooper Kupp this week). As for the team, the Vikings finally got their “legitimate win” that has forced everyone to admit this team is a legitimate SB contender. Sure it was another ugly win in a game they were largely losing. Yes, they still haven’t notched a double digit win yet. But winning games consistently is a display of talent in and of itself, regardless of how it happens. It may be likely that they’ll regress to the mean of one score victories but there’s no guarantee that happens this season. Even if they face some regression, the team possess so much talent on both sides of the ball that any limitation Kirk Cousins bring may not matter in a season with no elite teams. They play a gruelling three week stretch in that of Dallas, New England and the Jets but they’re already waltzing into the playoffs so even a worst-case scenario of 1-3 in those games likely won’t do much to effect their playoff chances.

Winner:49ers

Our only other winner of the week belongs to the Niners who win in spite of a rather unremarkable game over the wounded chargers. The game itself was both unremarkable but also intriguing. It started off with the Chargers getting their 2nd opening drive TD all season long (the other being against the Texans). Given the chargers aversion throughout the first halves of games, this was a pretty shocking result. It was a drive characterised by the lack of a 49ers pass rush that gave Herbert all the time in the world to throw a TD pass to Deandre Carter (who’s yet another WR banged up for them). The 49ers responded in classic fashion by attacking both through the ground and air with Elijah Mitchell’s return being immediately felt as now they possess one of the most dangerous two headed attacks on the ground in the NFL. It all appeared to be going smoothly as the Niners arrived at a third and goal from the Chargers 2. But a run that was stuffed up the middle gave Shanahan a choice. Go for it (the smart play) or kick the FG (the risk adverse play). Anyone who’s seen him coach over the past few years knows exactly what he chose at the Niners chipped in a PAT-esque FG to cut the deficit down to 4. After a chargers punt, the Niners got the ball back and proceeded to immediately fumble the ball. Another chargers drive, another stall though as the injuries on the roster continued to manifest itself into settling for just 3 points.

A quick note, it says a lot about how shocked everyone gets when a Chargers kicker is able to actually consistently hit FG’s. It would be a reoccurring storyline throughout the game and was an amusing anecdote for the commentary crew. The niners and Chargers would continue to trade 3 and outs before Herbert and co would settle for yet another FG after stalling on the goal line. Jimmy G would respond b marching down the field, using a nice bit of motor to keep the Niners defence stuck in place. It would end on a QB sneak for a score after Mcaffery was once against stuffed on short yardage the previous play. On the following drive, we saw one of the rare NFL ejections as Greenlaw took a shot at Justin Herbert as he was scrambling. When the QB is a free runner, it’s expected that he’s treated like any other player. But of course, officiating is never that consistent and Greenlaw got tossed despite Herbert falling down from another tackle being made which forced the semi illegal hit. Not the most egregious call we’ve seen this season but were it Ekler making the run instead of Herbert, no one would have noticed. It forced Chase Daniel to come in for the final few plays who proceeded to try for check downs to Ekler as the Chargers once again settled for another FG to close out the half. For those keeping score at home, that’s 3 FG’s as the Chargers led 17-10 at halftime.

To open the 2nd half, the Niners moved the ball by showing off their elite skill position players once again. Mitchell, Mcaffery and Deebo were all in the mix before the Niners settled for yet another FG. The red zone inefficiency by the Niners is worth keeping an eye on moving forward as despite possessing such dynamic players, there’s often a habit for settling for 3 instead of getting the full 7. Whether this is the fault of Jimmy or Shannahan is hard to say but it’s been a recurring theme in two of their past three games now. Both offences would stall out for the rest of the third quarter as they went into the 4th with the score at 16-13. It’s here where the Chargers would melt down would begin. A lengthy 15 play, 7 minute drive by the Niners punctuated by a Mcaffery score would not only give them the lead, but also give the Chargers limited time to rally. The drive itself was one of the more impressive ones you’ll ever see by Jimmy. He found himself in multiple third and longs and each time was able to stay poised in the pocket and make the right reads. This may sound like an insult coming off as a compliment, and it kind of is. But those kinds of drives show the glimpses of Jimmy G being just a touch more than a game managing QB, something they’ll need him to be come January. The Chargers would respond by… you guessed it, going three and out. But the Niners would only kill a little more clock before punting it away. Fortunately, the punt would land on the 1 and now Herbert would have to about 60 yards to tie it. Instead they’d go 4 and out giving the Niners the ball at the 8 yard line with a chance to seal the win with a TD. Yet again though, the Niners stalled out (admittedly by rushing the ball 3 times in order to drain the clock out further) and had to settle for a 6 point lead. It would matter little as on the first play of the chargers next drive, Herbert would throw a desperation heave that got picked and just like that, the Niners had shut out the Chargers in the 2nd half and won them the game.

It was an impressive 2nd half by the Niners but you can’t help but walk away from the game being rather unimpressed by both squads. It’s much simpler for the Chargers, after all, they’ve been decimated by injuries and have done little since the memorable game against KC. For the niners however, it was a critical win given the seattle loss that brought them much closer to the division lead though it still didn’t inspire much confidence in this squad moving forward. The defence is solid, especially against the run where the interior defensive line is a brick wall. The offence however still seems limited in the red zone and Jimmy G still has the same question marks he’s always had this season. What should make the win encouraging for Niners fans was the return of Elijah Mitchell. He and Mcaffery combined for 166 total yards as Mitchell was incredibly efficient on the ground, Christain posed a greater threat as a receiver. It’s the best two headed RB combination in the league potentially and it’s only their first week playing together. Moving forward, this will likely be the recipe for success in order to overcome the limitations that Garrapolo brings, especially if Shannahan continues to struggle to involved Deebo in the gameplan.

Loser: Bills

This game has already been discussed in depth so I won’t revist that here. Instead, it’s worth discussing what the loss meant for Buffalo. They’ve now lost two straight games and instead of being the clear front runners to win the AFC East (if not the AFC as a whole), are now third in their division with NE right on their tails at just one game back. Even if they wrestle back control of the division, the Ravens, Chiefs and Titans are all neck and neck with them fighting for the one seed. It’s kind of unbelieveable that the Bills are right on the verge of mashing the panic button given they still have the best point differential in the league by a considerable margin and were cruising against the Vikings until the 4th quarter. But the Bills inability to close out tight games was a criticism they had last year and it’s been mentioned at times again this year. Josh Allen after all is their leading rusher and Singletary is averaging just 4.3 YPC with only a couple scores. Now Allen is banged up and they have no time to rest him given the race they find themselves in. Fortunately for them, they have an easy schedule the rest of the way and can regain control of the division in two games against NE as well as a rematch against the Jets.

Loser: Broncos

I’ll be honest with you dear reader. I’m not even mad nor surprised the Broncos lost this game. They were supposed to lose. It was supposed to be an ugly game not worth watching. But at this point, it’s just too much fun not to rip the Broncos and Russell Wilson. South Park may have retired the “Oh my god, you killed Kenny” reoccurring gag but I never will. Once again, the Broncos lost, now sinking their record to a lowly 3-6. It’s far form a game that’s worth recapping or digging into but I will give Denver some credit in that they actually moved the ball a bit tis game. They only had two three and outs this game and were even in a position to tie the game on their final drive. On a third and four from the Titans 21, Wilson would get sacked for the 6th time all game, fumble the ball and set up a fourth and 13. A penalty would turn that into a 4th and 8 but Wilson got forced out the pocket and threw up a prayer to nobody as the pass got tipped and picked. It gave Wilson his 5th INT (to his 7 TD’s) on the year as he tried to avoid getting hit for the 19th time that game. We haven’t done the Wilson burial in a few weeks thanks to injuries and a bye week so let’s bring out this old chestnut:

“Denver gave up the farm to acquire Wilson, trading Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first round picks (2022 and 2023),two second-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a 2022 fifth-round selection for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick”. In addition to the trade haul, they gave Wilson a 5 year, 242.5-million-dollar extension with a 50 million dollar signing bonus and 124 million guaranteed. “

It never gets old. While some of the failings of this Denver squad don’t belong to Wilson, it’s impossible to ignore what this team looks like currently, and how difficult it’ll be to fix in the future. They don’t have the picks nor a ton of cap space. Even if they did, they need to revamp the entire offensive line. Even if they do that, they need Wilson not to do what he’s done for the past 3 or 4 years and play himself into sacks. Even if they do that, they need Wilson to play at a higher level than he’s done in the aforementioned seasons. None of that is impossible for Denver moving forward but it’s worth noting that even if Wilson was playing at the peak of his powers, there’s still other issues this team needs to fix. The defence reminds one of the best in the league and is likely the only reason this team isn’t flirting with the Texans and Raiders with the worst records this year. They rank dead last in points scored per game and are 31st in third down percentage. Jeudy is now hurt so Rusty loses yet another weapon on a team that’s incapable of running the ball since Javonte Williams went down. The only bright spot this team has is that they play Vegas next week and Carolina the week after. It’ll likely be their only bright spot left as they have to run the gauntlet for the rest of the season with games against the Ravens, KC twice and the Chargers. If they lose to Vegas though, I would keep an eye on this space as I’ll have to devise an extra special spicy roast for the week.

Eagles

It took 10 long, agonising weeks but finally, Dallas’s most hated team is in the losers column for the first time all season. Yes, it’s their first loss and yes, they’re still in control of the division with two games left to play against the Giants and one against Dallas. But in a tight NFC East race, the loss opened up the window not just for the Giants but for the entire divison as it pulled the commies to a 500 record as well. It was a bizzarro game as it initially went according to script. Heinicke got strip sacked and Philly got a quick TD. Even after a commanding response by the Commanders that saw the Eagles defensive line get stomped into the dirt, the Eagles responded with their own punishing scoring drive. That capped off the first quarter with a 14-7 Eagles lead and it seemed inevitable that although the Commanders were putting up a fight, the Eagles were too talented, too efficient and refined to actually lose to a team who barely beat the Colts a couple weeks prior. But those who had been paying attention shouldn’t have been surprised by the Commanders competitiveness. After all, the commies had just barely lost the Vikings the week prior and had reeled off 3 straight wins before that. Indeed in the second quarter, Washington continued to just punish the Eagles defensive line. Once again the commies fired back for a 13 play drive that resulted FG (a clock management miscue here stopped the commies for going for it on 4th and one). Then they responded on defence as Hurts threw an ill advised pass into double coverage intended for AJ Brown that got picked off. In turn, the Commanders marched down the field yet again, this time for a TD score as the commies just chewed up the play clock. After a Philly 3 and out with just a minute left, Heinickie actually led a rather impressive 2 minute drill and managed to snag 3 extra points to put them up by 6 entering the half.

It was a shocking result, even if you believed that the Eagles defence had looked a little shaky the past couple weeks. But the domination over the Philly defensive line was no joke with an absurd 23:49 to 6:11 disparity in time of possession at half. That wound up being the story of the entire game as time after time, Washington were able to convert on third down and extend drives. To open the second half, Philly went 3 and out yet again while the Commanders went on another 14 play drive that went for almost 8 and a half minutes. By the time the 4th quarter had hit, the Eagles had only 6 possessions and hadn’t scored on their previous 3. There’s little insight to be had on this game. Heinickie had played fine up to that point barring the opening drive miscue. It was simply the ability for the Commanders to play football ordinarily reserved for a team like KC. Limit the possessions, control the line of scrimmage, move the ball and convert on third down when need be and play defence with the emphasis of letting the offence shoot themselves in the foot. That’s exactly what Philly has done at times this year as the offence has proven to be hot and cold instead of consistent.

Philly would score on a lengthy drive of their own to their credit as they were finally able to get the run game going for a drive before Hurts hit Devonta Smith for the wide open score. That brought the score to just 2 and a soft pass aimed to Terry Mclaurin on the subsequent drive that got picked off meant Philly had all the “momentum” back.

This is where the game got controversial. On a first and 10, Dallas Goedart on route to a first down got pulled by his facemask and fumbled as a result. The referees would miss the call, marking the Philly’s 5th turnover all season long (the second this game). Although the Commies would only chip in a FG off the turnover, another turnover by Philly would kill yet another drive. Quez Watkins caught a wide open ball down to the commanders 30 but fumbled the ball off a tackle from behind. Even then, the Eagles would get one more chance to win the game after a quick commanders 3 and out. Yet again, a mistake would kill the drive. On third and 8, Philly ran what appeared to be a four verticals route. Hurts was pressured immediately and sacked, bringing up 4th an 18. Given the recent success of the Eagles defence, Head coach Saleh decided to punt instead of going for it. That would be the last time Philly would see the ball as Brandon Grahamn would get called for a roughing the passer as Heinickie scrambled on third down, looking for a pass before settling for taking a knee. It was a strange call that I can hardly fault either for. On one hand, the hit was delayed as it came after he took the knee. On the other hand, it wasn’t a deliberate victory position play. Heinickie was trying to make a play before opting to take a knee at the end after it was clear no one was open. It’s likely something that’ll get examined in the offseason as the rulebook will get ever more complex. But like the Chargers game, calls against the QB are always going to be ruled differently even if they’re not supposed to be.

The loss was Philly’s first and came at an inopportune time, giving a game to a division rival. But it’s also hard to see it being a replicable formula for success. While the Eagles defence has struggled in recent weeks, it did tighten up in the fourth quarter despite the beating it took from the Commanders offensive line. That secondary is still as opportunistic as ever and it’s unlikely they’ll see the bad fortune in calls that they received. A garbage time score off a trick play made this game look like a larger loss than it was as well. But there is something to be learned about how Washington won this game. That Eagles interior front is vulnerable, even with the new addition of a 36 year old Suh. Likewise the offence still isn’t consistent for Philly as the run game isn’t reliable and Hurts still hasn’t developed as much as you’d like with his read. AJ Brown only saw 4 targets and one catch this game. There needs to be an equal balance in getting both playmaking WR’s involved which hasn’t occurred yet. The greater loss for Philly is in the hunt for the one seed. For once, the Eagles will be rooting for Dallas next week as they face up against the Vikings.

Honourable mention loser: Cowboys

Call it favouritism or whatever you like. I call it already flying over the word count for the week so this one is going to be a quick write up. It was an ugly loss to a miserable and pathetic Packer team. That can’t be denied. It set Dallas up as third in the NFC East with a game against the Vikings that could place them even further back with another loss. Even if they win that game, they still have a difficult schedule the rest of the way. So why did Dallas blow a game that should have been a sure thing? Honestly, it’s not that complicated. A couple of INT’s that were mistakes by receivers didn’t help. Green Bay scored 14 points off those turnovers and tied the game up at half. Even still, Dallas held a 14 point lead entering the 4th and blew that lead. Christian Watson had his breakout game and caught both his TD’s in the quarter as the injuries to Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis have become crippling. Dallas still had every chance to win the game in OT but of course, bad play-calling had to kill the drive. On third and 3, Dallas tried and failed to test Lamb against Jaire Alexander which was fair enough given the success Lamb found on the day. It’s easy to argue the refs missed a wide open and blatant PI call against Alexander though Dallas fans are used to refs missing blatantly obvious calls against the Packers at this point. Even with the egregiousgly missed call, Dallas had a chance to kick the FG on 4th. Instead, Dallas went for it on 4th where every receiver was covered and Dak had to throw a desperation pass to Pollard that fell incomplete. Going for it on 4th was nt the issue. But if your going to do that, you set that up on the previous play, be it an end around, a run, a QB designed run etc. Instead, the decision felt like something that was made in the heat of the moment instead of it being methodical. Again, the refs may have robbed Dallas on third down but it was far from the only reason they lost the game.

Staved off execution: Packers, Cardinals, Bucs

Quick mentions for these teams as they won and inspired just a glimmer of hope in their fans. Obviously at the time of this publishing, the shimmer of hope for the Packers has now long since extinguished but at the time, it gave them a chance that the season could turn around, especially if the Vikings stumbled. Whereas the Cardinals finally managed to beat Mcvay and the Rams in order to stay alive in the NFC West, especially as Seattle lost. Given Kyler is banged up, the future still looks rather bleak for this underachieving squad but if they’re able to win their game against the Niners next week, there still remains a chance they can capture the division if the Seahawks stumble further. Finally, the Bucs who upset the aforementioned Seahawks in a Germany game. Overseas games are always so hard to judge and give much credence too though given Seattle’s form over the past few weeks, it’s worth a tip of the cap to Brady who’s now pulled off two straight wins to retake the division lead. Now the Bucs get a bye week and time to rest up before making the final push towards season’s end. No one is convinced as of yet that this team is anything more than cannon fodder for whatever team they may end up playing in the playoffs (if they make it). But by sheer virtue of winning the division, they’d be granted a home playoff game and you can never discount Brady playing at home, even if it’s the version of Brady we were all afraid we’d see one day.

Wrap Up

Another week, another write up in the books. Once again, this one comes a bit delayed as I forgot how busy the November to December stretch could be given how it went last year. Apologies on that front. Much longer write up this week however, I was glad I was able to watch and cover games like I normally do this week. Given the lack of important games, most of the focus went upon the Vikings as well as those who had critical losses this week. That’ll do it for me this week, until next time.